by Nick Simpson, Forex-FX-4X
Our euro/dollar analysis last week highlighted a breakout above the upper trend line of the triangle pattern – as seen on the H4 chart below. A technical level located just under the H4 200 SMA (simple moving average) and the 50% retrace area. - Price has subsequently seen a retest of the upper trend line – after finding resistance around the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace – and ultimately closed the day just under the 1.3000 round number area, with neither the bulls nor bears showing any real commitment.
- Nonetheless, we note that the EURUSD pair finished the week near the range resistance high point and is now consolidating around a 1.2940 – 1.3040 zone, after seeing an extended period around 1.2840 – 1.3000.
- Any further push higher through 1.3000 has the 61.8% Fibonacci level roughly aligned with the descending trend line as a technical area of confluence around 1.3060.
- A failure to sustain recent gains has price threatening to once again see a rangebound phase between 1.2840 – 1.3000.
- The latest COT report data shows traders increased the net short EUR FX wager by almost 5% on the prior week to hit $13.5 billion.
Click to enlarge
Click to enlarge
