14 November 2014: ECRI's WLI Improves But Still Forecasting Poor Economy Ahead

November 21st, 2014
in econ_news, syndication

ECRI's WLI Growth Index improved but remains in negative territory. The index had declined for the previous 8 weeks. This index is continuing to forecast a slight contraction in 1Q2015. ECRI reported their coincident and lagging indices, and are shown below.

Follow up:

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index

Here is this weeks update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

Weekly Leading Index Growth Declines

Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity continues in negative territory - statistically forecasting a slight business cycle contraction in the next six months.

According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, its weekly leading growth index declined from -2.9% (originally published as -2.8%) to -2.4%  - but, the level of the index improved from 132.0 (originally released last week as 132.1) to 133.2.

ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The October update for October (reported in November) shows the rate of economic growth remaining in a narrow range for the last five months:

U.S. Coincident Index

/images/z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge

/images/z ecri_infl.PNG

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rises

U.S. inflationary pressures were higher in October, as the U.S. future inflation gauge grew to 105.9 from a revised September 104.8 reading, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

"With the USFIG approaching its summer highs, notwithstanding the recent plunge in inflation expectations, underlying inflation pressures continue to simmer," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release.

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The October's economy's rate of growth (released in November)  marginally declined but shows moderate growth.

U.S. Lagging Index

/images/z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI

Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted. You can also comment using Facebook directly using he comment block below.

 navigate econintersect .com


Analysis Blog
News Blog
Investing Blog
Opinion Blog
Precious Metals Blog
Markets Blog
Video of the Day


Asia / Pacific
Middle East / Africa
USA Government

RSS Feeds / Social Media

Combined Econintersect Feed

Free Newsletter

Marketplace - Books & More

Economic Forecast

Content Contribution



  Top Economics Site

Investing.com Contributor TalkMarkets Contributor Finance Blogs Free PageRank Checker Active Search Results Google+

This Web Page by Steven Hansen ---- Copyright 2010 - 2018 Econintersect LLC - all rights reserved