ECRI’s WLI Growth Index improved but remains in negative territory. The index had declined for the previous 8 weeks. This index is continuing to forecast a slight contraction in 1Q2015. ECRI reported their coincident and lagging indices, and are shown below.
Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index
Here is this weeks update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth):
Weekly Leading Index Growth Declines
Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity continues in negative territory – statistically forecasting a slight business cycle contraction in the next six months.
According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, its weekly leading growth index declined from -2.9% (originally published as -2.8%) to -2.4% – but, the level of the index improved from 132.0 (originally released last week as 132.1) to 133.2.
ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The October update for October (reported in November) shows the rate of economic growth remaining in a narrow range for the last five months:
U.S. Coincident Index
ECRI produces a monthly inflation index – a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rises
U.S. inflationary pressures were higher in October, as the U.S. future inflation gauge grew to 105.9 from a revised September 104.8 reading, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.
“With the USFIG approaching its summer highs, notwithstanding the recent plunge in inflation expectations, underlying inflation pressures continue to simmer,” ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release.
ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The October’s economy’s rate of growth (released in November) marginally declined but shows moderate growth.
U.S. Lagging Index