Econintersect: Week 05 of 2013 ending February 03 shows same week total rail traffic below 2012 levels according to data released by the Association of American Railroads (AAR). The four week moving average of total same week rail traffic is improving, but longer term trends are still degrading.
- Four week rolling average is improving;
- 13 week rolling average is degrading;
- 52 week rolling average is degrading.
A summary of the data:
- The carload portion of rail traffic showed same week traffic contracted 3.4% (versus last week's -6.3%).
- Excluding coal and grain (which are not an economic indicator), rail carloads expanded at 3.5% (last week's +1.0%) same week year-over-year.
- Intermodal same week traffic expanded 7.2% (versus last week's +1.6%)
- Total same week rail traffic contracted 3.3% (versus last week's -6.0%)
USA coal production is down 9.3% same week year-over-year, and the cumulative effect on rail carloads continues to drag traffic down.
“Eight of the 20 carload commodity groups posted increases compared with the same week in 2012, with petroleum products, up 52.3 percent; lumber and wood products, up 26.5 percent, and farm products excluding grain, up 18.7 percent. The groups showing a decrease in weekly traffic included metallic ores, down 22.4 percent; grain, down 15.7 percent, and nonmetallic minerals, down 12.1 percent.”
The majority of the reason for rail year-to-date contraction is coal and grain movements - which would only effect the profitability of railroads, and not an economic indicator as coal is an alternative fuel to oil and natural gas.
|This week Year-over-Year||-6.3%||1.6%||-6.0%|
|This week without coal and grain
|Year Cumulative to Date||-7.0%||4.7%||-6.7%|
[click on graph below to enlarge]
Current Rail Chart
Total (cumulative) year-to-date traffic is contracting year-over-year.
For the week ended February 02, 2013: