Rail Traffic Growth Significant in w/e 29 October 2011

November 4th, 2011
in News, econ_news

Econintersect: Improvement in rail traffic counts continue to grow - and belies concerns the economy is slipping into a recession.

Weekly rail traffic has shown contraction year-over-year on four occasions since August. The latest data for week 43 of 2011 ending 29 October 2011, rail traffic grew 5.0% over the same week one year ago according to data provided by Railfax.

Follow up:

Rail performance year to date for 2011 has been in an overall downtrend since June when the trend line dropped below 3% to 4% year-over-year improvement in the four week trend line.  In October, the short term trend has been improving but still below its old trend.   This week the 4 week average shows year-over-year growth at 2.5%, up from 2.4% last week. Econintersect believes low growth year-over-year is an economic warning that a recession is possible. But if growth starts to pick up, the threat of recession will begin to recede.


Total US Rail Traffic

Major Commodity Groups Total Grain Chemicals Food Forest Metals Coal Autos Intermodal
Current Week
Vs. 2010 5.0% (4.8%) 4.9% (3.0%) 2.4% 12.5% 5.5% 12.2% 4.6%
Vs. 2009 15.2% 2.8% 12.4% (5.5%) 4.6% 42.3% 9.4% 9.5% 19.6%
4 Week Rolling Avg.
Vs. 2010 2.5% (13.8%) 5.6% (3.6%) 2.1% 7.9% 1.1% 11.1% 3.6%
Vs. 2009 13.7% (3.5%) 13.9% (4.8%) 6.4% 46.0% 6.1% 17.1% 18.1%
Quarter to Date
Vs. 2010 2.5% (13.8%) 5.6% (3.6%) 2.1% 7.9% 1.1% 11.1% 3.6%
Vs. 2009 13.7% (3.5%) 13.9% (4.8%) 6.4% 46.0% 6.1% 17.1% 18.1%
Year to Date
Vs. 2010 3.3% (1.0%) 4.9% (2.9%) 3.4% 8.5% (0.3%) 7.8% 5.3%
Vs. 2009 14.0% 11.7% 15.2% (0.2%) 7.3% 52.1% 0.0% 33.9% 20.7%

4 week rolling average:

 

source: Railfax









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