Econintersect: Improvement in rail traffic counts continue to grow – and belies concerns the economy is slipping into a recession.
Weekly rail traffic has shown contraction year-over-year on four occasions since August. The latest data for week 43 of 2011 ending 29 October 2011, rail traffic grew 5.0% over the same week one year ago according to data provided by Railfax.Rail performance year to date for 2011 has been in an overall downtrend since June when the trend line dropped below 3% to 4% year-over-year improvement in the four week trend line. In October, the short term trend has been improving but still below its old trend. This week the 4 week average shows year-over-year growth at 2.5%, up from 2.4% last week. Econintersect believes low growth year-over-year is an economic warning that a recession is possible. But if growth starts to pick up, the threat of recession will begin to recede.
Total US Rail Traffic
Major Commodity Groups | Total | Grain | Chemicals | Food | Forest | Metals | Coal | Autos | Intermodal |
Current Week | |||||||||
Vs. 2010 | 5.0% | (4.8%) | 4.9% | (3.0%) | 2.4% | 12.5% | 5.5% | 12.2% | 4.6% |
Vs. 2009 | 15.2% | 2.8% | 12.4% | (5.5%) | 4.6% | 42.3% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 19.6% |
4 Week Rolling Avg. | |||||||||
Vs. 2010 | 2.5% | (13.8%) | 5.6% | (3.6%) | 2.1% | 7.9% | 1.1% | 11.1% | 3.6% |
Vs. 2009 | 13.7% | (3.5%) | 13.9% | (4.8%) | 6.4% | 46.0% | 6.1% | 17.1% | 18.1% |
Quarter to Date | |||||||||
Vs. 2010 | 2.5% | (13.8%) | 5.6% | (3.6%) | 2.1% | 7.9% | 1.1% | 11.1% | 3.6% |
Vs. 2009 | 13.7% | (3.5%) | 13.9% | (4.8%) | 6.4% | 46.0% | 6.1% | 17.1% | 18.1% |
Year to Date | |||||||||
Vs. 2010 | 3.3% | (1.0%) | 4.9% | (2.9%) | 3.4% | 8.5% | (0.3%) | 7.8% | 5.3% |
Vs. 2009 | 14.0% | 11.7% | 15.2% | (0.2%) | 7.3% | 52.1% | 0.0% | 33.9% | 20.7% |
4 week rolling average:
source: Railfax