Written by Sig Silber

HEADLINES (Updated 4:09 PM EDT) –

– Heavy rain and severe storms possible from the Central Plains to the Midwest through Sunday

– Hot in the Great Plains, with poor air quality due to wildfire smoke found throughout parts of the High Plains, Rockies, and Intermountain West

This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.

Please share this article – Go to the very top of the page, right-hand side for social media buttons. Also, feel free to send this email to anyone you feel will benefit from it.

For those interested in longer-term forecasts, we just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and it can be accessed here.

Directory

CONUS Focal Points

Short Range Focal Points

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

327 PM EDT Sat Aug 07 2021

Valid 00Z Sun Aug 08 2021 – 00Z Tue Aug 10 2021

…Heavy rain and severe storms possible from the Central Plains to the Midwest through Sunday…

…Hot in the Great Plains, with poor air quality due to wildfire smoke found throughout parts of the High Plains, Rockies, and Intermountain West…

An upper level disturbance and frontal boundary will be the focus for potentially severe thunderstorms this evening across the Central Plains and Midwest. Storms from the TX/OK Panhandles to the Upper Mississippi Valley could produce damaging wind gusts, large hail, and tornadoes. The greatest threat of isolated tornadoes is forecast across parts of southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and southwest Wisconsin. In addition to the severe threat, flash flooding is also a concern this afternoon across the Upper Midwest.

By Sunday, as a wave of low pressure inches east across the Midwest, the next round of potentially severe storms is expected to set up between southern Wisconsin and eastern Kansas. Portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley may also contend with areas of flash flooding on Sunday as well. In total, as much as 2 to 4 inches of rain is possible by the end of the weekend for portions of the Midwest.

Three other areas expected to receive notable rainfall through Monday are located throughout the Northwest, Southwest, and Mid-Atlantic. Starting with the latter, a weakening frontal boundary with a wave of low pressure tracking northeast along it will induce heavy showers and thunderstorms from the southeastern Virginia to the New Jersey coast this evening. Some instances of flash flooding are possible before the system exits the region early on Sunday.

In the Northwest, a potent Pacific cold front is responsible for wet and cooler conditions across the Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains by the beginning of the week. Isolated severe thunderstorms and up to an inch of rain is forecast over northwest and north-central Montana by the end of Sunday. Elsewhere, monsoonal moisture may result in scattered thunderstorms over the next couple of days across southern Arizona.

Temperature-wise, above normal temperatures are expected from much of the central U.S. to the Lower Great Lakes. Parts of the central and southern High Plains could eclipse the century mark, while hotter and more humid conditions return to the Northeast by Monday. Last but certainly not least, thick wildfire smoke continues to cause poor air quality levels in parts of the Intermountain West, Rockies, and High Plains. Elevated fire weather conditions have been issued for the northern High Plains of Montana this evening and the central Great Basin on Sunday.

We try to keep this up to date but if is not you can find the updated version here.

When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Thunderstorm Risk

This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.

The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.

Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.

Temperature

A version that shows a 40 hour animation and some other views can be found here

– Return to Directory

Day 3 – 7 Hazards

Valid Monday August 09 2021 – Friday August 13 2021

Hazards:

– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Southeast.

– Excessive heat across portions of California, the Pacific Northwest, and the Northern Great Basin, Wed-Fri, Aug 11-Aug 13.

– Excessive heat across portions of the Plains and the Middle/Upper Mississippi Valley, Mon, Aug 9.

– Excessive heat across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Southern Plains, Mon-Fri,Aug 9-Aug 13.

– Excessive heat across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast, Tue-Fri, Aug 10-Aug 13.

– Heavy rain across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Mon-Fri, Aug 9-Aug 13.

Detailed Summary:

The pattern during the medium range forecast period (Monday, August 9 – Friday, August 13) will be characterized by upper-level ridging coming into the West Coast for the latter part of the week, upper ridging over the Eastern Seaboard as well, and periods of troughing across the north-central U.S. in between. Before a cold front pushes across the central U.S. ahead of an upper trough, Monday will be a warm day across the Central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley, with temperatures around 10-15 degrees above average and heat indices potentially rising above 105F. The combination of typical summer heat and oppressive humidity should also lead to the potential for excessive heat centered in the Lower Mississippi Valley throughout next week, as any frontal systems that could ease the heat and humidity will be confined to the northern half of the CONUS. The heat is expected to stretch toward the Gulf Coast, but conditions there should be around normal for August.

In addition, temperatures in the 90s and dewpoints in the 70s could combine to create uncomfortably to dangerously hot conditions across the southern Mid-Atlantic region underneath the upper-level ridging. This could be particularly dangerous in the major metropolitan areas that can trap heat. Warm low temperatures in the mid-70s from the Central/Southern Plains to the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast/Mid-Atlantic will mean there is little relief from the heat overnight. Temperatures are likely to be 5 to 10 degrees above normal stretching into the Northeast as well, but with heat indices staying below 100F. Then as upper ridging pushes toward the Northwest around midweek, temperatures will increase for Washington and Oregon. Temperature anomalies of 10-20 degrees above normal are forecast, with highs in the 90s likely and even in the 100s for interior portions of the region, and breaking daily record highs already appears possible.

Frontal systems and moisture inflow will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms for the central and eastern parts of the country through the week. At this point, however, the timing of the fronts and the midlevel shortwave troughs pushing them forward remain unclear given model guidance disagreements. Thus it is hard to determine any particular regions that could receive enhanced rainfall totals at this time, but locally heavy rainfall could be possible in some areas, potentially somewhere in the north-central U.S. to Ohio Valley. Monsoonal moisture is also expected to come into the Southwest next week, but rainfall amounts do not look to be especially anomalous, at least not for widespread areas.

For Alaska, persistent upper-level troughing is forecast to be in place across the state during the period, which will lead to cooler than average temperatures, especially in terms of highs. But the main hazard for Alaska will be multiple rounds of rainfall occurring from the Southcentral region into the Panhandle as approaching low pressure systems and fronts bring much above normal moisture anomalies into the area through the week. Daily rainfall totals over 2 inches are likely with significantly higher amounts possible throughout the entire period. Not every area may receive heavy rain every day, but given uncertainty with timing of each wave and that there are multiple rounds expected, opted to broadbrush one heavy rain hazard area for the region at this point.

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.

– Return to Directory

Ski Snow Reports

We will resume snow coverage in the Fall

– Return to Directory

Drought Coverage

We include drought information in this section.

More information can be found here.

August Drought Outlook.

Seasonal Outlook Issued July 15, 2021

– Return to Directory

Tropical Events

Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico

The Eastern Pacific

The Central Pacific

Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.

And the Western Pacific

Weekly Tropical Forecast

– Return to Directory

Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).

First Temperature

And then Precipitation

– Return to Directory

Mesoscale Events

The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.

Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.

This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.

There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

– Return to Directory

Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps

The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

– Return to Directory

Now to our More Detailed Weather Report

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

Looking ahead to next week.

– Return to Directory

Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings

Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.

Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
Convective Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook
The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook
Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook

– Return to Directory