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July 30, 2021 Weather Impacts On Economic Activity – Executive Briefings

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Written by Sig Silber

Tonight we have not one but two NASS Executive Briefings: one on crops and the other on cattle. We also have some interesting information on crop pricing and the costs of farming. We have two energy reports plus an energy video and a farming sustainability video. We cover all our regular topics including the Crop Progress Report and the intermediate-term weather forecast. We have a couple of regional reports. There is something for everyone in our article tonight.

 


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The electric power companies probably love it.

Agriculture Prices

This is relatively current information as it applies to June of 2021. The full report can be found here It is a long report. I am not sure that I fully understand this report. In general a ratio of prices received to prices paid being under 0.93 would appear to not be a good thing. But it is certainly https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/agpr0721.pdf better than last year. But if your revenue is $100 and your costs are $10 you can make money even if the cost index is increasing faster than the price index. Later we present the report on expenditures but that report which also was issued today is an annual report so it covers 2019 and 2020.

Executive Briefing

This is dated July 12, 2021 but we were not able to include it before now because we had to focus on the drought.

This shows the survey size for the four crops discussed in this Executive Briefing.

This breaks down the survey size by states.

This shows that Winter Wheat condition is not good. The graphic starts with April 4, 2021 which is the begining of the crop year for Winter Wheat and it also shows last year’s harvest on the left. The graphic is a little confusing because there are no surveys from late Fall until Spring. The plant may or may not be dormant but NASS is not conducting surveys during this period of time.

You can see that the percent harvested does not look good compared to the prior five years.

Even though conditions are not good, this is a big increase in planted, harvested, yield and production over last year and over the prior estimate where one was made.

The yield has been on an upwards trend.

This shows the change from the survey last month and you can see the north/sought divide.

Production has been flat

Percentage of samples processed in the lab. I am not sure why they include this slide.

This shows how the yield as estimated changes through the four sets of surveys each year. So the bars are the heads per square feet and the red dots are the bushels per acre.

This breaks it down by type of winter wheat. The types of wheat can be confusing. Perhaps this article will help.

Here is the NASS forecast compared to a number of industry forecasts. The NASS forecast is towards the high end of the forecast which to me means that the next forecast might be lower. In general the forecasts have been getting better.

Here is where the problem is: Spring Wheat. The acreage planted and harvested is lower but the real problem is the crash in the yield.

The yield had been increasing so this was a surprise.

All the states are way down so I assume it is weather related not insects.

So this will be record low production.

Here the NASS Forecast is the lowest of the available forecasts.

I do not know why they present this after the “Other Spring Wheat” but that is what they do and it is the same story but with a greater decline in planted and harvested than the “Other” category. The two states with the largest decline in yield are across the Northern Tier.

Two years that broke the trend. This bears watching.

Again it is the Northern Tier with the major declines in yield.

Record low production.

Interesting. The NASS forecast is at the extreme low end of the range of forecasts. Will we see some improvement in the next round of forecasts?

Some other crops. Barley and oats are off but with oats it is substantially less planted and with Barley it is mostly reduced yield. Tobacco is doing well.

Apricots look good especially compared to last year. Almonds have a favorable trend.

And we must not forget citrus which is in a declining trend except for tangerines.

We also cover Cattle tonight and we cover the two pricing and cost reports that were issued today. You can access all these NASS Reports here. And if there is also an Executive Briefing it can be found here.

And here is where you go to get more information.

Executive Briefing Cattle.

 

This shows the sample size of the survey.

A slight decline. “Sequestration”. I struggled with that…it was when USDA did not get their full funding. It is not a form of castration or anything biological.

I do not think that calves are included. Again sequestration refers to USDA not receiving the funding to do their survey work in some years. Everything is based on July 1 and there are moe milk cows and less beef cows.

So these are young cows that have not given birth to a calf.

The years are not showing up well in the headings of the table in the top part of this graphic but the first column is last year and the next column is this year.

This shows the number of calves

600

This shows this last year as a percent change and it shows the range of estimates NASS versus industry sources. That is a lot of information in one graphic and it is hard to read.

This is the import export part of the equation. We import more than we export in terms of live animals. The net impact was a reduction in the herd because slaughter was up.

I think this means cattle at the feed lot.

So I think this is cattle not at the feed lot but available to be send to the feed lot.

Here is a summary from a different part of NASS but I believe it is the same data.

They did not break this down by state. That would have been interesting.

Regional Conditions

First we discuss a region with huge problems.

 

We will be hearing more from these folks.

It is really bad

A lot of wildfires. The Cabinet Mountans are some of my favorite mountains even though that is where you might find…….I probably should not go into that.

Here is a region that basically has no problems

Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) July 2021 Drought and Water Monthly Webinar

That essentially has no problems with the climate or weather.

A video of the webinar is available here.

No drought there.

Tropical systems can turn normal into flooding.

 

 

And the above is Apalachicola Bay. That is SW of Tallahassee. In the presentation there was a long dicussion of this bay which I assume is very important for wildlife that it stay within limits. I have provided the link to the full webinar. It is available here.  The comment about being unable to provide data for a certain period had to do with equipment failure and they were getting ready to take a boat ride and pull up the instrument and take a look…what fun.

 

 

They are more worried about flooding than drought so part of the discussion was about the hurricane Season. The bottom right graphic shows typical tracks for the first ten days of August.
Note that the tracks are into the Caribbean more than the East Coast.

We might as well show the situation for the California Reservoirs here.

A number of reservoirs are in less than good shape and the recharge projections are not good. A third full is not good. A quarter full is worse

And it is always useful to look at the last seven days. I have stopped showing the Snow Water Equivalent as there is essentially now no snowpack of any significance. So rainfall is what counts now.

You can see where the green and blue are. There is a lot of blue showing. Part of the rotation and the Southwest Monsoon. There are some places getting wet.

I think we have all gotten sick at looking at the water year to date which by now does not change unless there was a Noah’s Ark event. So I am not showing it.

Let’s look at the current drought situation.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20210727/20210727_conus_trd.png

Some improvement is shown especially in D4

U.S. Drought Monitor Change Map

I do not like the new format but you can see perhaps more green than yellow indicating that on balance there was some improvement.
More information can be found here.

Here we look at four time periods: one week, one month, six months, and a full year.

The new format of showing county boundaries which I hate now applies to all time periods. They may have been able to reduce the brightness of the county boundaries so that the change in drought is easier to see than it was last week. So perhaps I will get to like the new graphics.
You kind of have to look at this 4-Plex in reverse. The lower right map shows the situation today as compared to a year ago. This set of graphics shows that this drought has materialized over the past year. It also shows that some places have less drought than a year ago or even six months or even three months ago. It is good to look at data rather than depending on the Media to tell you what is going on.

Drought Discussion (The Regional links are live and will take you to the drought map for that Region)

This Week’s Drought Summary

A robust Southwestern monsoon circulation delivered drought-easing rainfall but sparked localized flash flooding across large sections of the Four Corners States, as well as the southern Great Basin, but critically dry conditions persisted across northern California and the Northwest. In the driest areas, wildfires – some sparked by lightning – dotted the landscape, with containment of some blazes hampered by high temperatures, low humidity levels, erratic winds, and abundant fuels. Farther east, another round of blistering heat across the northern Plains further stressed rangeland, pastures, and a variety of summer crops. The central and southern Plains also experienced some hot weather, although agricultural impacts were tempered by mostly adequate soil moisture reserves. Meanwhile, mostly dry weather covered the Midwest, continuing a trend that had developed in mid-July. Short-term dryness was not yet a concern in the previously well-watered lower Midwest. However, reproductive corn and soybeans in drier areas of the upper Midwest were subjected to increasing levels of stress, especially as temperatures began to rise. Elsewhere, Southeastern rain – which maintained abundant moisture reserves for pastures and summer crops – primarily fell from the Mississippi Delta to the southern Atlantic Coast.

Northeast

Wet weather continued to dent Northeastern drought, except in parts of West Virginia (and environs) and northern New England. Another week of frequent showers in non-drought areas of the Northeast pushed month-to-date (July 1-27) rainfall totals to a foot or more in some locations, including Worcester, Massachusetts (13.54 inches, or 399% of normal). Worcester’s previous wettest July occurred in 1938, when 11.41 inches fell. Farther north, however, July 1-27 rainfall in Caribou, Maine, totaled 2.77 inches (74% of normal). Lingering drought impacts in northern New England included low streamflow and groundwater shortages. Farther south, short-term dryness led to the introduction of some abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate drought (D1) in West Virginia and portions of neighboring states. In Elkins, West Virginia, July 1-27 rainfall totaled 2.24 inches, just 43% of normal.

Southeast

The last remaining patch of abnormal dryness (D0) in southern Florida was eradicated by ongoing showery weather. Neither dryness nor drought was present in Alabama and Georgia. Farther north however, dryness (D0) and moderate drought (D1) expanded across parts of western and central Virginia. By July 25, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported that Virginia’s topsoil moisture was 60% very short to short, an increase of 23 percentage points from the previous week. On the same date, pastures were rated 38% in very poor to poor condition in Virginia, along with 43% in North Carolina. Some drier areas in the Carolinas received beneficial rain, however, resulting in reductions in the coverage of abnormal dryness (D0).

South

Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi remained free of dryness and drought, while only small patches of abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate drought (D1) were noted in Oklahoma, Texas, and Tennessee. Most Southern crops continued to fare well amid plentiful rainfall and relatively mild temperatures. On July 25, three-quarters (75%) of the nation’s peanuts were rated in good to excellent condition, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, along with 73% of the rice and 61% of the cotton.

Midwest

Mostly dry weather developed across the Midwest in mid-July and has persisted for nearly 2 weeks. However, dryness was not yet a concern across the lower Midwest, where the U.S. Department of Agriculture noted (on July 25) that topsoil was rated 15% or less very short to short in Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan. In fact, Michigan was one of the few states in the region – along with northern Wisconsin – to receive widespread heavy showers in recent days. In stark contrast, drought continued to worsen across parts of the upper Midwest, accompanied by building heat. By July 25, topsoil moisture was rated 81% very short to short in Minnesota, along with 53% in Iowa and 46% in Nebraska. Iowa’s number markedly increased from last week’s 33% very short to short. Drought expansion highlights included additional extreme drought (D3) coverage in Minnesota and an increase in severe drought (D2) coverage in Iowa. At least one-fifth of Minnesota’s major summer crops – 21% of the corn and 20% of the soybeans – were rated in very poor to poor condition on July 25. Minnesota also led the Midwest on that date with 66% of its pastures rated very poor to poor.

High Plains

Drought’s footprint remained rather limited across Kansas, eastern Colorado, and southern Nebraska. Farther north and west, however, worsening drought impacts were observed across much of Wyoming and the Dakotas. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, topsoil moisture on July 25 was rated 87% very short to short in North Dakota, along with 82% in South Dakota and 79% in Wyoming. Rangeland and pastures were rated at least 60% very poor to poor in Wyoming and the Dakotas, led by North Dakota at 85%. On July 25, North Dakota was the national leader in oats rated very poor to poor (56%), along with soybeans (41%) and corn (39%). South Dakota led the nation, among major production states, in sorghum rated very poor to poor (31%). Nationally, the U.S. spring wheat crop was rated just 9% good to excellent and 66% very poor to poor on July 25, the lowest overall condition at this time of year since July 25, 1988, when the crop was categorized as 4% good to excellent and 72% very poor to poor. Harvest was underway for drought-ravaged crops on the High Plains; 3% of the spring wheat had been cut by July 25. Periodic extreme heat on the northern Plains has greatly aggravated drought impacts. During the most recent heat wave, high temperatures in South Dakota on July 27 soared to 108°F in Pierre and 107°F in Rapid City. In the latter location, that represented the highest temperature since August 29, 2012.

West

Further expansion of moderate to exceptional drought (D1 to D4) was introduced in parts of California and the Northwest, as agricultural, wildfire, and water-supply impacts continued to mount. Oregon’s third-largest wildfire in modern history, the Bootleg Fire, has burned more than 410,000 acres of timber and brush, but was more than 50% contained. California’s largest active blaze, the Dixie Fire, has scorched nearly 220,000 acres only about 15 miles northeast of the town of Paradise, which was devastated by the Camp Fire in 2018. Washington continued to lead the country in several drought-related agricultural categories, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, including topsoil moisture rated very short to short (99% on July 25), as well as very poor to poor ratings for rangeland and pastures (97%) and spring wheat (88%). In addition to Washington, at least two-thirds of the rangeland and pastures were rated very poor to poor on July 25 in Montana (91%), Arizona (82%), Oregon (80%), and Utah (69%). Montana rivaled Washington for agricultural drought severity, with topsoil moisture rated 97% very short to short and a nation-leading 70% of its barley rated very poor to poor. Farther south, however, an active monsoon circulation delivered drought relief in the form of diurnal showers and thunderstorms, some heavy. Up to one category of improvement was introduced in parts of Arizona, New Mexico, southwestern Colorado, and southern sections of Utah and Nevada. In Arizona, Tucson received more rain in 6 days (4.20 inches fell from July 20-25) than during all of 2020, when annual precipitation of 4.17 inches was the lowest on record. Despite the positive effect of monsoonal showers on surface conditions (e.g. improved vegetation health, topsoil moisture, and streamflow), serious long-term, underlying drought persisted, with obvious impacts on groundwater and reservoirs. The surface elevation of Lake Mead, on the Colorado River behind Hoover Dam, fell to a new record low – 1,067.59 feet above sea level – on July 23. In Utah, the surface elevation of the Great Salt Lake fell below 4,191.4 feet in late July, breaking the previous record low set in 1963.

Caribbean

In Puerto Rico, abundant showers across interior locations led to the removal of two small patches of dryness (D0), but the drought depiction was unchanged in coastal areas.

Alternating weather conditions occurred across the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI) during this USDM week (07/21/21-07/27/21). A low-level trough/tropical wave brought showers early in the week, with another tropical wave and a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) causing more rain later in the week. Drier and more stable airmasses preceded and followed these systems, along with a Saharan Air Layer, which inhibited showers.

Radar-based estimates of rainfall (QPE) for the 7 days ending at 12z on Tuesday showed widely-varying precipitation amounts, ranging from less than half an inch (over eastern St. Croix) to locally 2 inches or more on all three islands. Satellite-based (IMERG) estimates of 7-day precipitation revealed a large area of 2+ inches of rain that extended from St. John and St. Thomas northward for several hundred miles, with St. Croix having from half an inch to 2 inches in places.

Seven-day rain gauge totals ranged from 1.15 inches to 2.54 inches on St. John, 0.98 to 1.63 inches on St. Thomas, and 0.33 inch to 1.73 inches on St. Croix. The rain improved Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values on St. Croix and St. John, but groundwater levels still remain historically low. The groundwater level at the USGS Grade School 3 well on St. Thomas rose in the last few days but was still well below where it was back in December 2020. Groundwater levels on St. John and St. Croix continued to decline, although the rate of decline has slowed in recent days. There was no change in the USDM status this week, with St. Croix continuing at D2-SL, St. John continuing at D1-L, and St. Thomas continuing at D0-L.

Pacific

Parts of interior Alaska received substantial rain, while showers mostly bypassed some locations. As a result, moderate drought (D1) was expanded slightly westward into central Alaska, but some dryness (D0) was eradicated in the east-central portion of the state. Interior Alaska’s largest active wildfire, the Munson Creek Fire, has burned more than 54,000 acres of vegetation.

In Hawaii, there were no changes to the drought depiction, despite an increase in the intensity of showers across windward locations, in part due to moisture associated with the remnants of eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Guillermo. In Hawaiian areas where rainfall has increased, low streamflow values were being monitored to gauge the impact of the shower activity.

The weather features across the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) during this USDM week (07/21/21-07/27/21) included an expansive monsoon flow across western Micronesia. Tropical Storm Nepartak (11W) formed north of the Marianas at mid-week and helped intensify a monsoon trough west and north of the Marianas. The convergent monsoon flow drenched the Marianas with several inches of rain. Weekly totals ranged from 2.50 inches in the south at Guam to over 5 inches at Rota (5.77 inches) and the Saipan IAP (6.12), with over 8 inches estimated from satellite over the far northern Marianas. Over eastern Micronesia, the trade-wind pattern fell apart, with only weak circulations, disturbances, and surface troughs bringing areas of rain. South of the equator, easterly winds brought a few showers to American Samoa, but the weather for the week was mostly dominated by dry high pressure.

Satellite-based estimates of 7-day precipitation (QPE) are available from two products: one using mainly infrared (IR) sensors (NESDIS GOES-R AHI) and the other incorporating microwave sensors (GPM IMERG). These QPE products showed a huge arch of 4+ inches of rain that stretched in the shape of a U from the northern Chinese coast, to the Marianas, then northeastward, associated with the monsoon trough and TS Nepartak. A patchy band of 1+ inches stretched eastward across Palau, the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), and the southern Marshall Islands (RMI). The satellite QPE detected only a few tenths of an inch of rain over American Samoa.

As noted earlier, it was a wet week in the Marianas, with rainfall totals consistently over 2 inches (one inch is the weekly minimum needed to meet most water needs in the Marianas), so D-Nothing continued. Further south, the monsoon rains delivered weekly precipitation totals (based on rain gauge amounts received for the week) over 2 inches to Woleai (3.41 inches) and Yap (2.56), but under 2 inches to Ulithi (1.20 inches with 3 days missing). In Palau, Airai recorded 1.71 inches and the Koror COOP station 0.94 inch. Rain earlier in the month resulted in July month-to-date totals at these stations that were above the monthly minimum needed to meet most water needs. Kosrae (3.28 inches) and Nukuoro (3.94 inches) were wet (above the weekly minimum) while the rest of the FSM stations were dry, with values ranging from 0.23 inch at Lukunor to 1.83 inches at Kapingamarangi. Except for Lukunor, the month-to-date totals were above the monthly minimum at the FSM stations. D-Nothing continued at Palau and the FSM stations except for Fananu, which was not analyzed due to no data.

It was a dry week in American Samoa, with Pago Pago recording 0.37 inch and the automated stations at Siufaga Ridge (0.73 inch) and Toa Ridge (0.28 inch) below an inch (the automated stations had one day missing). But month-to-date totals were wet, so D-Nothing continued at Tutuila.

In the RMI, Kwajalein was wet (above the 2-inch weekly minimum) with 2.31 inches of rain for the week. But the rest of the stations were dry, with weekly rainfall totals ranging from 0.40 inch at Jaluit to 1.50 inches at Majuro. Ailinglaplap recorded 0.55 inch for the week and 2.43 inches so far this month. This week marked the fourth consecutive dry week, and July 2021 (based on data received so far in the month) marked the third consecutive dry month. Compared to historical full Julys, July 2021 was the driest July in the 37-year record, June-July 2021 was the driest such 2-month period, and May-July 2021 was the driest May-July. Jaluit reported 0.40 inch of rain for the week and 3.22 inches so far this month. This week marked the seventh consecutive dry week. Compared to historical full Julys, July 2021 ranked as the second driest July in 38 years of data, June-July 2021 was the fourth driest June-July, and May-July 2021 was the ninth driest such 3-month period. D0-S continued at Ailinglaplap and Jaluit. At the other RMI stations, either July-to-date has been wet (Kwajalein and Mili), or previous weeks have been wet, so D-Nothing continued. Of concern is the declining reservoir level at Majuro; as of July 26, about 27 million gallons were in the reservoir, which is below the threshold for concern of 28.8 million gallons. The drought status at Utirik could not be analyzed due to lack of data.

Looking Ahead

Cooler air will overspread the northern Plains and upper Midwest, though many drought-affected areas will remain in need of moisture. Large sections of the central and southern Plains will also remain mostly dry, accompanied by some of the hottest weather of the summer. Farther east, periodic showers and thunderstorms will affect the Great Lakes and Northeastern States. Meanwhile, hot, humid weather will linger into the weekend across the South, where an approaching cold front will generate showers and thunderstorms. Elsewhere, the Southwestern monsoon circulation will remain active, with beneficial showers dampening interior sections of the western United States as far north as Wyoming and southern Idaho.

The NWS 6- to 10-day outlook for August 3 – 7 calls for the likelihood of above-normal temperatures in Alaska, southern Florida and from the Pacific Coast to the northern Plains and upper Midwest, while cooler-than-normal conditions will cover much of the southeastern half of the country. Meanwhile, near- or below-normal rainfall across most of the United States should contrast with wetter-than-normal weather in a few areas, including western Alaska, the southern Atlantic region, the southern Plains, and the Northwest.

Soil Conditions

Surface Soil

Five less states in surplus with five more shoret. That is not good.

Subsurface

 https://econintersect.com/images/2021/05/75859753SubsoilShortMay272021.GIF
Three less states in surplus and two addional states short. So that is not good but better than the topsoil.

Pan evaporation is measurements at particular locations as to how much water the atmosphere absorbed per day. It is the original way of collecting this kind of data.

The result of the drought is very dry soil conditions in some areas. There is also some very wet areas.

Last WeekThis Week
But one sees some wet areas. There is not only the green but a lot of yellow. This is a model created analysis as we have limited measurements. But in reality we do not need a lot of measurements unless the goal is to enrich the companies that sell the measurement equipment. Precipitation is highly variable so expecting to be able to have enough measurement equipment is not very realistic. We now have satellite imagery.
It looks slightly improved in the West. It is overall wetter. Remember this is a model generated map.

Drought Outlook

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/month_drought.png

You can see some shifting in the location of the drought but the overall intensity is not much changed.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/season_drought.png

The Seasonal Drought Outlook is actually quite a bit better than the prior forecast last month. Notice that it is one month later so it does not cover the same period of time as one month drops out and a later month enters a three month forecast. Actually this forecast is for 3.5 months.

Looks like about the same number of fires.

Since we are entering fire season it is time to be showing the wildland fire potential outlook. These will update automatically shortly after the month changes which is very soon.

https://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/month1_outlook.png

Red is bad, green is good. The wildfire potential has shifted to the northwest with the rotation of the drought.

https://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/month2_outlook.png

Again, notice the shift to the north of the fire potential being above normal. That is certainly partly Monsoon related. But my working hypothesis is the drought is rotating clockwise. We will see this Fall if that is the case.

https://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/month3_outlook.png

A bit better in September.

https://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/month4_outlook.png

October looks better but still remains a problem or the West Coast.

Flooding is a bit improved this week. But some states are still having problems. It is more of a good thing right now than a bad thing.

Both warmer and cooler. The north-central warm anomaly is a problem.

Here is another way of looking at it but this is not a weekly analysis but covering a period of April 1 to July 17. Assuming crops are planted according to where they belong and when they should be planted you can see where for corn it has been cooler than usual and where it has been warmer than usual. I am not totally comfortable with the science here so I do not regularly present this sort of graphic. But if you can pin it down it can be very useful.
The pattern of a warmer than usual northern tier and cooler than usual in part of the southern tier makes this graphic useful.

Crop Progress Reports

When we have a NASS Executive Briefing one way to look at this report is that it adds another more recent week of information. This report is issued every week and the Executive Briefings are every couple of months and provide a lot of historical information.

CropCrop ProgressCrop Condition
CornPercent Silking and Dough OKBetter last year. Mostly due to the Dakotas and Minnesota having poor conditions.
SoybeansBlooming and Setting Pods good.Not so great. Mostly due to the Dakotas and Minnesota..
CottonSquaring and Setting Bolls a bit slowVery good
Winter WheatHarvested okNA
Spring WheatHeaded and Harvested okVery poor in all states where Spring Wheat is grown
SorghumHeaded and Coloring OKVery good
RiceHeaded a bit slowOK
OatsHarvested okPoor compared to last year in the Dakotas, Texas and Minnesota.
BarleyHeaded and Harvested OKVery poor North Dakota, Washington State, Montana, and Minnesota.
PeanutsPegging OKOK
Sugar BeetsNANA
SunflowersMANA
Pasture and Range Somewhat Poor

Additional Information can be found here. Pretty much it is the same information as shown in the above tables but at the end there is some information on the methodology used.

Yellow is bad. This week there is one state colored yellow and one tan which is even worse. There is a lot of blue but those farmers would probably prefer some days where it was too wet to do fieldwork. But overall, it is an improvement.

NASS Reports The NASS Reports can be found here.

We provided the price index for June at the beginning of this article. NASS also released information on productions costs. The full report can be accessed here.

 

Here is the summary

 

You do not usually get color graphics in the regular NASS Reports as they are the highlight of the Executive Briefings but this is an exception. Notice it shows the total expenditures and the average expenditures per farm. It may say in the full document but in the graphic it does not say if these numbers are inflation adjusted.

In the full report they break down the expenditures by category and they do this by region. I am not thrilled with the use of representative states for this purpose but it may work better for some regions than others.

This defines some of the cost categories.

This is from a very recent article by geopoliticalfutures.com. I am not sure how to properly attibute it but it comes from an article titled The Volatile Global Food Supply It certainly shows how interdependent the World is with respect to some categories of food.

Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

Showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).

First Temperature

Day 3 Max Temperature

6 - 10 Day Forecast Temperature

8 - 14 Day Temperature

3 - 4 Week Temperature

And then Precipitation

Five day QPF

6 - 10 Day Forecast Precipitation

8 - 14 Day Precipitation

3 - 4 Week Precipitation

 
We have been covering this in our LIVE article which you can find here. The live article is republished daily and updated at least twice a day. So look for the LIVE article at the top of the stack and you will get the latest weather information.

The Week 3-4 Discussion is always interesting so we include it in the article. Similar discussions for the 6 -10 Day and 8 – 14 Day Forecasts are available here.

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Aug 14 2021-Fri Aug 27 2021

ENSO-neutral conditions continue to persist with near average sea surface temperatures (SST) observed across the tropical Pacific. Early in the week, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) featured a fast moving Kelvin wave that propagated quickly across the tropical Pacific. Despite this activity, forecasted RMM indices indicate an inactive signal by the start of the week 3-4 period. The temperature and precipitation forecasts for the Week 3-4 period are based primarily on dynamical model guidance. Long-term trends were also a factor as well as the evolution of the Week-2 forecast.

Several of the dynamical models (CFS, GEFS, JMA, and the SubX multi-model ensemble) are in reasonable agreement with respect to the 14-day average of forecasted 500-hPa circulation patterns over CONUS, with less agreement over Alaska. A blend of guidance tools, however, predicts troughing to the west of Alaska and a ridge to the south, as well as troughing in the Southwest and Southern Plains. The models do agree on ridges placed to the west and east of CONUS, although there are variations on the exact placement and amplitude. ECMWF favors bridging the heights across CONUS while CFS keeps them separate with near normal height anomalies. In the aggregate, positive height anomalies are centered over the North Pacific Ocean and the Northeast.

As a result of the aforementioned ridging and decadal trends, the temperature forecast tilts toward above normal probabilities for much of the northern and central plains, upper Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, and Northeast. Above average temperatures are also forecast for California, Nevada, and Oregon, although the probabilities for those regions are low. The highest probabilities for above average temperatures are forecast over the Upper Great Lakes, however due to model disagreement, a low probability threshold is indicated there. Below normal temperatures are favored along much of the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, and Southeast. In these regions, models robustly agree on the below average temperatures with the exception of Florida. Highest probabilities for below average temperatures hug the Gulf Coast. Despite robust model agreement, attribution of this below average signal is not evident in large scale teleconnections such as ENSO, MJO, or decadal trends. Forecaster experience, as well as persistence and recent skillful verification, point toward soil moisture and below normal SSTs as the most likely explanation for the signal in this region.

The precipitation forecast for the Week 3-4 forecast period also reflects the predicted ridging and decadal trends as well as agreement between statistical and dynamical model guidance. Enhanced probabilities for dry conditions dominate the Plains, from Texas to North Dakota. Enhanced monsoon precipitation is favored in the Southwest with highest probabilities across Arizona. Above average precipitation is forecast for the Southeast and surrounding regions. Guidance did not indicate a strong signal for tropical cyclone activity in the Gulf or Atlantic, as such the enhanced precipitation signal may be associated with the troughing over the Southeast and Southern Plains. Other areas such as the Ohio Valley, Northeast, and Northwest showed more disagreement among dynamical and statistical models, or low probabilities, as such, equal chances are indicated for those regions.

Other than a slight tilt toward above average temperatures along the North Slope and the South Coast, Aleutians and Panhandle of Alaska, much of the state is forecast to be equal chances. Dry conditions are favored in the Aleutians, South Coast, and Alaskan Panhandle with above average precipitation anticipated for the North Slope and eastern portions of the Interior Basin in Alaska.

Near-normal sea surface temperatures have recently been observed in the region surrounding Hawaii. Dynamical model guidance from the SubX suite favors a slight tilt toward above normal temperature probabilities across the majority of the islands with equal chances for the island of Hawaii. Dynamical model guidance also indicates a slight tilt toward below normal precipitation across the region.

Sustainable Agriculture.

This is an intersting video focused on a small farm (1.5 acres) I think. I am not sure why this farmer does not have a larger farm. It seems like a profitable operation so why is it constrained to a small area. It covers a lot of ground and the farm owner talks fast so one has to focus. Some of what is shown is pretty amazing.

Energy News

For those who like videos [I do not attest to the total accuracty of this presentation but it is useful]. The full article can be found here.

Also related is an article we published some time ago.

EROEI: A Useful Measure Or A Distraction?

We received the monthly Natural Gas report.

The July Natural Gas Monthly, with data through May 2021, has been released. you can access the full report here.

  • In May 2021, dry natural gas production increased year over year for the month, after 12 consecutive months of year-over-year decreases. The preliminary level for dry natural gas production in May 2021 was 2,864 billion cubic feet (Bcf), or 92.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d). This level was 4.6 Bcf/d (5.2%) higher than the May 2020 level of 87.8 Bcf/d. Both gross withdrawals and marketed production also increased from May 2020:
  • Gross withdrawals: 3,500 Bcf for the month, or 112.9 Bcf/d
  • Up 6.1% compared with 106.4 Bcf/d in May 2020
  • Highest for the month since we began tracking them in 1980 
  • Marketed production: 3,109 Bcf for the month, or 100.3 Bcf/d
  • Up 6.0% compared with 94.6 Bcf/d in May 2020.
  • Highest for the month since we began tracking it in 1973
  • Estimated natural gas consumption in May 2021 was 2,100 Bcf, or 67.7 Bcf/d. This level was 0.9 Bcf/d (1.4%) higher than the May 2020 level of 66.8 Bcf/d. Natural gas consumption was the second highest for the month since we began using the current definitions for consuming sectors in 2001.
  • The year-over-year average daily rate of consumption of dry natural gas in May 2021 increased in two of the four consuming sectors and decreased in the other two. Deliveries of natural gas by consuming sector in May 2021 were as follows:
  • Residential deliveries: 216 Bcf for the month, or 7.0 Bcf/d
  • Down 8.1% compared with 7.6 Bcf/d in May 2020
  • Commercial deliveries: 181 Bcf for the month, or 5.8 Bcf/d
  • Up 12.4% compared with 5.2 Bcf/d in May 2020
  • Industrial deliveries: 661 Bcf for the month, or 21.3 Bcf/d
  • Up 5.8% compared with 20.2 Bcf/d in May 2020
  • Electric power deliveries: 816 Bcf for the month, or 26.3 Bcf/d
  • Down 2.2% compared with 26.9 Bcf/d in May 2020
  • Net natural gas imports (imports minus exports) were -370 Bcf, or -11.9 Bcf/d, in May 2021, making the United States a net natural gas exporter. The average daily rate of net imports was the lowest for any month since we began tracking imports and exports in 1973, as the United States exported 2.8 times more natural gas than it imported in May 2021. The average daily rate of natural gas exports was the highest for the month since we began tracking monthly exports in 1973. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports in May 2021 were up 73.1% compared with May 2020. The average daily rate of LNG exports was also the highest for the month since we began tracking LNG in 1997. In May 2021, the United States exported 10.2 Bcf/d of LNG to 31 countries. Natural gas imports and exports in May 2021 were as follows:
  • Total imports: 205 Bcf for the month, or 6.6 Bcf/d
  • Up 9.6% compared with 6.0 Bcf/d in May 2020
  • Total exports: 575 Bcf for the month, or 18.5 Bcf/d
  • Up 45.6% compared with 12.7 Bcf/d in May 2020

We also received

On July 27, 2021, we released our primary report on recent and historical energy statistics, the Monthly Energy Review (MER). Preliminary estimates for April 2021 indicate the following:

U.S. primary energy consumption totaled 7.5 quadrillion British thermal units, a 15% increase from April 2020. Petroleum accounted for 38% of primary energy consumption, natural gas for 31%, renewable energy for 14%, coal for 9%, and nuclear electric power for 8%.

Compared with April 2020, U.S. petroleum consumption increased 33%, coal consumption increased 28%, natural gas consumption was virtually unchanged, and nuclear electric power consumption decreased 4%.

Compared with April 2020, total U.S. renewable energy consumption increased 14%. Solar power consumption increased 28%, wind power consumption increased 22%, biomass consumption increased 20%, geothermal energy consumption decreased 7%, and conventional hydroelectric power consumption decreased 13%.

The full report can be accessed here.

International

Generally good but Brazil was concerned about cold conditions. Updates can be found here.

Science Feature

No Science Feature this week

Environmental News

Nothing to report this week but the Energy News is of course related.

Major Sources of Information Used in this Weekly Report. We will not be using them all each week but the reader is welcome to refer to these resources.

  • The U.S. Drought Monitor (the full report can be accessed here)
  • Selected graphics from our other Weather and Climate Reports are repeated in this report. These reports can be accessed by referencing the Directory here
  • Selections from the Tuesday USD Weather and Crop Bulletin (the full report can be accessed here) or here. Selections from the USDA Office of the Chief Economist can be found here. NASS Executive Briefings can be found here. A wide range of NASS Reports can be found here. USDA Foreign Agriculture Service Briefs can be found here and here and here. Other useful sources of information that I regularly utilize are the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) which can be accessed here and the USDA NRCS Weekly and Weather Climate Update which can be accessed here or here.

Drought severity classification

Sequence of drought occurrence and impacts for commonly accepted drought types. All droughts originate from a deficiency of precipitation or meteorological drought but other types of drought and impacts cascade from this deficiency. (Source and more information: NDMC)

Source: National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska-Lincoln

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