Written by Sig Silber

HEADLINES (Updated 3:24 PM and 4:12 PM EDT) –

– Elsa to produce gusty winds, heavy rain, and isolated tornadoes across parts of southeast Georgia and South Carolina tonight, before pushing into the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday and Northeast by Friday

– High Risk for Excessive Rainfall and the potential for life-threatening flash flooding found throughout portions of the middle and lower Texas Coast

– Dangerous heat continues throughout much of the West, expanding into the Central Plains on Friday

This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.

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For those interested in longer-term forecasts, we just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and it can be accessed here.

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CONUS Focal Points

Short Range Focal Points

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

305 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021

Valid 00Z Thu Jul 08 2021 – 00Z Sat Jul 10 2021

…Elsa to produce gusty winds, heavy rain, and isolated tornadoes across parts of southeast Georgia and South Carolina tonight, before pushing into the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday and Northeast by Friday…

…High Risk for Excessive Rainfall and the potential for life-threatening flash flooding found throughout portions of the middle and lower Texas Coast…

…Dangerous heat continues throughout much of the West, expanding into the Central Plains on Friday…

Tropical Storm Elsa made landfall late this morning along the North Florida Gulf Coast and is continuing to track northward through northern Florida and into southern Georgia by tonight. Elsa is expected to produce damaging wind gusts and heavy rain over southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina through early Thursday morning. Rainfall totals up to 8 inches across this region could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. A few isolated tornadoes are also possible.

By Thursday, impacts from Elsa are forecast to shift into eastern North Carolina and the Mid-Atlantic, before reaching the Northeast and southern New England by Friday. Additional pockets of heavy rain and isolated instances of flash flooding can be expected between the Mid-Atlantic and New England, with periods of gusty winds found along coastal regions to the east of where the center of Elsa tracks. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for more information and the latest on Tropical Storm Elsa.

Meanwhile, an abundance of tropical moisture and very little upper-level steering flow has produced an environment ripe for torrential downpours throughout parts of South Texas this evening and into Thursday. As much as 5 to 10 inches of additional rainfall is possible across this region, with a Moderate to High Risk of Excessive Rainfall along the middle and lower Texas Coast. Some areas have already received 8+ inches of rain over the last few days, which has severely compromised soils and low-lying areas prone to flooding. Widespread flash flooding is likely, with life-threatening situations possible. Rain chances are expected to continue through at least Friday afternoon.

Farther north, a frontal boundary sliding eastward across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast will support showers and thunderstorms this evening capable of producing heavy rainfall and/or severe weather. The threat for flash flooding is forecast to increase across the Northeast on Thursday as the approaching frontal boundary begins to interact with moisture associated with Elsa.

The western portion of this boundary could also bring the threat for severe thunderstorms to parts of the Northern Plains tonight and Thursday, shifting into the Central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley by Friday.

Excessive heat continues across much of the Western U.S. as daytime highs soar into the 90s and lower 100s through the end of this week, with more daily records possible. Excessive Heat Warnings, Watches, and Heat Advisories remain in effect across central California, the Southwest, and parts of the central/northern Great Basin.

High temperatures into the upper 90s and close the century mark are forecast to shift into the Central Plains on Friday ahead of an approaching cold front, potentially reaching into record territory as well.

For parts of the Northwest and Great Basin, the combined hot and dry conditions may lead to an elevated to critical risk for fire weather this evening and Thursday. Red Flag Warnings are in effect.

We try to keep this up to date but if is not you can find the updated version here.

When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Thunderstorm Risk

This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.

The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.

Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.

Temperature

A version that shows a 40 hour animation and some other views can be found here

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Day 3 – 7 Hazards

Valid Saturday July 10 2021 – Wednesday July 14 2021

Hazards:

– Heavy rain across portions of the Central and Southern Plains, Sat, Jul 10.

– Heavy rain across portions of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, Sun, Jul 11.

– Heavy rain across portions of the Upper Missouri Valley, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley, Sat-Sun, Jul 10-Jul 11.

– Flooding possible across portions of the Southeast and the Southern Plains.

– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley and the Southern Plains.

– Excessive heat across portions of northern California, southwestern Oregon, and the Desert Southwest, Sat-Mon, Jul 10-Jul 12.

– Excessive heat across portions of southern California, the Southwest, the Great Basin, and the Interior Northwest, Sat-Wed, Jul 10-Jul 14.

– Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains, Sun, Jul 11.

– Heavy rain across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Sat-Sun, Jul 10-Jul 11.

Detailed Summary:

The threat for heavy rain in the central/eastern U.S. as well as the continued heat in the western U.S. highlight the hazards outlook for the medium-range forecast period (Saturday, July 10 – Wednesday, July 14). An upper-level trough will begin to develop in the lee of the Rockies on Saturday (July 10th) and progress to the southeast before beginning to break down Monday evening (July 12th).

At the surface, a low pressure system over central Kansas will move northeastward towards the northern Great Lakes, with a warm front extending east into the Ohio Valley and a cold front to the southwest over the Central and Southern Plains. Heavy rain is expected with convection developing in the vicinity of the surface low and along the warm front given the very moist air (low 70s dew points) pooling along the front. This is most likely from the Upper Missouri Valley east across the Middle Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley, as well as north into the southern Great Lakes region from Saturday through Sunday (July 11th) as the warm front moves slowly northward.

This will likely also include the continuation of a mesoscale convective system developing Friday (July 9th) over the Upper Missouri Valley and progressing southeastward along the warm front into the Middle Mississippi Valley on Saturday. Widespread rainfall between 1-2″ is expected, with locally higher amounts possible, particularly along the track of the forecast mesoscale convective system.

Widespread convection is also expected to develop to the southwest given the lift ahead of the upper-level trough and forcing along the cold front as it moves to the southeast over the Central/Southern Plains on Saturday and Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday. Heavy rain of 1-2″ is likely with these storms given the noted very moist air mass in place ahead of the front.

There is a chance for heavy rain further east into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast as the warm front progresses northward, but there is not enough model consensus on the location of the highest amounts for an outlook area at this time. The most likely time frame for heavy rain is on Sunday, with the potential for 1-2″ of rain possible anywhere from the I-95 corridor in the Mid-Atlantic northward to Lake Ontario, the Adirondacks, and portions of northern New England. An outlook area may need to be introduced as confidence in the most likely location for the heavy rain increases. The heavy rain may also continue into Monday and Tuesday for New England.

Additionally, a mesoscale convective system may develop in the Upper Mississippi Valley ahead of the next storm system on Wednesday (July 14th) at the end of the forecast period. Heavy rain of 1-2″ with locally higher amounts is possible along the track of the system. However, the localized nature of the heavier rain totals with a mesoscale system this far out in the forecast period and differences in location between the model guidance precludes an outlook area at this time.

In the west, an upper-level ridge will remain in place over the western U.S. throughout the period. Both excessive heat and much above normal temperatures are forecast across the region. Excessive heat is expected across the Mojave Desert, the San Joaquin Valley of California, portions of the central and northern Great Basin, the Wasatch Front of Utah, the Snake River Valley of Idaho, and portions of eastern Oregon and Washington throughout the period. Areas in the Mojave Desert and San Joaquin Valley can expect daily high temperatures of 110 and above. Further north, highs in the upper 90s and lower 100s are forecast. Excessive heat is also forecast for the rest of interior southern California and southwestern Arizona as well as the Sacramento Valley of northern California and interior southwestern Oregon from Saturday to Monday.

A weak shortwave trough may provide some relief from the hotter temperatures earlier in the period on Tuesday and Wednesday for northern California and southwestern Oregon, while high temperatures will likely return closer to normal as well in southern California and Arizona as the ridge shifts to the northwest. Above normal temperatures in the middle to upper 90s are also forecast for the Northern Rockies and High Plains of Montana on Sunday as the upper-level ridge expands northward between passing troughs.

In Alaska, an occluding low pressure system will move east across the Gulf of Alaska and into the Panhandle by Monday. Moist onshore flow ahead of the system on Saturday and Sunday will lead to daily heavy rain totals of 2″ and higher for the extreme southeast Mainland and the Panhandle. Daily clouds and showers throughout the broader mainland will lead to temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below normal across the area, but these temperatures are not expected to be particularly hazardous at this time.

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.

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Ski Snow Reports

We will resume snow coverage in the Fall

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Drought Coverage

We include drought information in this section.

More information can be found here.

July Drought Outlook.

Seasonal Outlook Issued May 20, 2021

Here is the short version of the discussion that was released with the new forecast.

Latest Seasonal Assessment – Hot, dry weather continued to exacerbate drought conditions across the West, where close to 90 percent of the Western Climate Region is currently experiencing drought conditions, and more than 50 percent of the region is experiencing severe to exceptional drought. Abnormally warm conditions also promoted drought expansion across the northern Plains and parts of the upper Midwest in the last 30 days. In contrast, copious rainfall and below average temperatures eased drought conditions across much of Texas and parts of the Southern Plains. Additionally, pockets of drought have persisted in southern Florida, the mid-Atlantic, and Carolinas, while drought continued to expand across northern New England, highlighted by much below normal streamflows. During the upcoming three months, little relief is anticipated across California and the Great Basin, where much of the region is in its dry season and abnormal warmth is favored to persist. Monsoon convection may bring localized relief to parts of southern Arizona and New Mexico, while below-average precipitation favored for the Northwest CONUS may promote continued drought development. The forecast is more uncertain across the Great Plains and Midwest, where summer convection may ease drought locally, but is unlikely to overturn the longer term drought conditions. Drought development is possible in climatologically drier portions of the north-central High Plains. Along the Eastern Seaboard, the CPC seasonal outlook indicates enhanced chances for above-median rainfall, which would help ease the remaining drought conditions. No drought development is anticipated in Alaska, while forecasts for below-average dry season rainfall across Hawaii favor continued drought expansion. The onset of the summer wet season favors continued drought reduction in Puerto Rico.

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Tropical Events

Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico

The Eastern Pacific

The Central Pacific

Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.

And the Western Pacific

Weekly Tropical Forecast

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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).

First Temperature

And then Precipitation

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Mesoscale Events

The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.

Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.

This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.

There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps

The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

Looking ahead to next week.

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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings

Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.

Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
Convective Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook
The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook
Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook

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