Written by Sig Silber

HEADLINES (Updated 4:06 PM and 8:11 PM EDT) –

– Excessive heat continues across sections of the Northwest, extending into the Northern Rockies, the Northern Plains and the Upper Midwest

– Isolated heavy rainfall likely along a cold front from the Mid-Atlantic through the Deep South and into the Southern High Plains

– Monsoonal moisture will bring daytime showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall to the Southwest through the weekend

This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.

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For those interested in longer-term forecasts, we just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and it can be accessed here.

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CONUS Focal Points

Short Range Focal Points

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

356 PM EDT Fri Jul 02 2021

Valid 00Z Sat Jul 03 2021 – 00Z Mon Jul 05 2021

…Excessive heat continues across sections of the Northwest, extending into the Northern Rockies, the Northern Plains and the Upper Midwest…

…Isolated heavy rainfall likely along a cold front from the Mid-Atlantic through the Deep South and into the Southern High Plains…

…Monsoonal moisture will bring daytime showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall to the Southwest through the weekend…

Anomalous ridging continues to dominate the upper-level pattern over the western United States, prolonging the excessive heat exposure for residents of the interior Northwest to the Northern Plains throughout the holiday weekend. Daily high temperatures in these regions will remain 15 to 20 degrees above normal, with some places consistently reaching the upper 90s or low 100s. A handful of daily records could potentially be broken from the Northern Great Basin to the Upper Midwest on Saturday. Due to the ongoing exposure to oppressively high daytime temperatures in parts of the Columbia Basin and the dangerous heat forecast to affect parts of Montana on Saturday and the Dakotas on Sunday, residents of these areas are urged to take proper precautions to safeguard their health and prevent the onset of heat-related illness. These precautions include: avoiding long periods of time outdoors in the sun, staying hydrated, remaining in a cool or air conditioned location, and canceling outdoor activities during the heat of the day. Excessive Heat Watches and Warnings as well as Heat Advisories are currently in effect for portions of Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and Montana.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely along a long, southward moving frontal boundary extending from the Mid-Atlantic through the Deep South and into the Southern High Plains. Due to the slow progression of and the potential for heavy convective precipitation with the passage of the front, localized flash flooding will be a concern along the length of the boundary. One of the areas at greatest risk for flash flooding through Saturday morning is the Mid-Atlantic. The Weather Prediction Center has highlighted a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall along the southern Virginia and Carolina coastlines, where antecedent conditions could support high rainfall rates on the order of 1 to 2 inches per hour. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding threats are expected to continue throughout the South this weekend as the front stalls along the Gulf Coast. With the passage of the front, daily high temperatures from the Northeast to the the Central High Plains are forecast to drop 10 to 20 degrees below normal on Friday and Saturday.

Upper-level high pressure settling over the Four Corners region will assist in pulling monsoonal moisture into the Southwest, bringing diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms from Arizona into the southern Rockies/High Plains throughout the period. Moderate to isolated heavy rainfall is possible, with concerns for flash flooding expected to persist through much the weekend across portions of southern Arizona, New Mexico, and western Texas. The Weather Prediction Center has highlighted Marginal to Slight Risks for Excessive Rainfall in these regions. To the north, daytime showers and thunderstorms will be likely across parts of the Central/Northern Plains along a weak stationary/warm frontal boundary.

We try to keep this up to date but if is not you can find the updated version here.

When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Thunderstorm Risk

This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.

The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.

Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.

Temperature

A version that shows a 40 hour animation and some other views can be found here

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Day 3 – 7 Hazards

Valid Monday July 05 2021 – Friday July 09 2021

Hazards:

– Heavy rain across portions of central and southern Texas and southwestern Louisiana, Mon-Thu, Jul 5-Jul 8.

– Heavy rain across portions of the Mid-Missouri Valley and the Upper Mississippi Valley, Tue, Jul 6.

– Heavy rain across portions of the Southeast and the Carolinas, Tue-Wed, Jul 6-Jul 7.

– Flooding possible across portions of the Central Plains and the Middle Mississippi Valley.

– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Central and Southern Plains, the Great Lakes, and the Middle Mississippi Valley.

– Flooding likely across portions of the Central and Southern Plains and the Middle Mississippi Valley.

– High winds across portions of the Southeast, Tue-Wed, Jul 6-Jul 7.

– Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Interior Northwest, the northern Great Basin, and the Northern Rockies, Mon-Fri, Jul 5-Jul 9.

– Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Northern High Plains, Wed-Thu, Jul 7-Jul 8.

– Much below normal temperatures across portions of mainland Alaska, Mon-Thu, Jul 5-Jul 8.

Detailed Summary:

There are several hazards outlook areas forecast for the medium-range period (Monday, July 5 – Friday, July 9), highlighted by the potential impacts associated with Hurricane Elsa. There is still a great deal of uncertainty in both the deterministic and ensemble model guidance on both the track and intensity of Elsa, so a broad area of heavy rain and high winds was included for Tuesday, July 6th and Wednesday, July 7th.

The National Hurricane Center official forecast track brings Elsa northward up towards the west coast of Florida on Tuesday morning before turning north-northeastward and making landfall as a tropical storm. High winds associated with the storm are expected from the Florida Keys northward up the west coast of Florida and then inland across central/northern Florida and southeastern Georgia, following the official forecast track. A broader area of heavy rain is expected for the Florida Peninsula and eastern Panhandle, southern/eastern Georgia, South Carolina, and central/eastern North Carolina. Several inches of rain may be possible locally depending on the track of the storm, but up to an inch or more can be expected across the broader outlook area.

Above normal temperatures are expected to continue for the Interior Northwest, northern Great Basin, Northern Rockies, and Northern High Plains as an upper-level ridge remains in place over the western U.S. Widespread highs in the upper 90s to low 100s are expected daily throughout the forecast period from the Northern Great Basin northward into the Interior Northwest. The daily highs at different locations may be somewhat cooler depending on the day of the week, and while the high temperatures will not be as hot as the recent historic records seen during this heatwave, the prolonged nature of above normal temperatures in general continues to remain oppressive and hazardous.

Further east, high temperatures in the mid 90s to over 100 are expected for portions of eastern Montana on Wednesday, July 7th and spreading southeastward into the western Dakotas and northeastern Wyoming on Thursday, July 8th.

A cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the Midwest and Northeast during the early half of the period (Monday, July 5th through Wednesday, July 7th) before becoming stationary roughly from southern New England west through the central Appalachians and back into the Midwest. Aided by northwest flow aloft, convection is expected to form along this front in the eastern Dakotas on Tuesday, July 6th, potentially organizing into a mesoscale convective system, and moving southeastward across the Mid-Missouri Valley and western portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley, bringing heavy rain. As the cold front continues eastward and stalls there may be additional chances for heavy rain, particularly in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic as Elsa tracks northward as well. However, there is uncertainty in the position of the stationary front and the track of Elsa as well as the contribution to any shower and thunderstorm activity between the stationary front and Elsa. Therefore, no additional outlook areas were included at this time.

An upper-level low as well as moist, onshore flow from the Gulf of Mexico will lead to daily showers and storms over central/southern Texas and southwestern Louisiana from Monday, July 5th through at least Thursday, July 8th. The rich Gulf moisture will lead to heavy rainfall rates and several inches of rain are possible. The heavy rain may continue on Friday, July 9th but is expected to remain more isolated to locations along the Mexican border as the upper-level low shifts to the south.

For Alaska, as an initial low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska exits to the southeast, a second low pressure system will track across the Bering Sea, the southwestern mainland, and into the Gulf of Alaska between Monday, July 5th and Thursday, July 8th. Heavy rainfall is possible across the southwest as the low approaches and begins to track across the region. Heavy rain is also possible across the Brooks Range on Tuesday, July 6th and Wednesday, July 7th as moisture increases across the area ahead of the low pressure system. Uncertainty over how significant the total amount of rainfall will be precludes an outlook area at this time. However, cooler temperatures behind the system as well as associated widespread showers will lead to below normal temperatures for the southern half of the mainland through a majority of the forecast period.

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.

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Ski Snow Reports

We will resume snow coverage in the Fall

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Drought Coverage

We include drought information in this section.

More information can be found here.

July Drought Outlook.

Seasonal Outlook Issued May 20, 2021

Here is the short version of the discussion that was released with the new forecast.

Latest Seasonal Assessment – Hot, dry weather continued to exacerbate drought conditions across the West, where close to 90 percent of the Western Climate Region is currently experiencing drought conditions, and more than 50 percent of the region is experiencing severe to exceptional drought. Abnormally warm conditions also promoted drought expansion across the northern Plains and parts of the upper Midwest in the last 30 days. In contrast, copious rainfall and below average temperatures eased drought conditions across much of Texas and parts of the Southern Plains. Additionally, pockets of drought have persisted in southern Florida, the mid-Atlantic, and Carolinas, while drought continued to expand across northern New England, highlighted by much below normal streamflows. During the upcoming three months, little relief is anticipated across California and the Great Basin, where much of the region is in its dry season and abnormal warmth is favored to persist. Monsoon convection may bring localized relief to parts of southern Arizona and New Mexico, while below-average precipitation favored for the Northwest CONUS may promote continued drought development. The forecast is more uncertain across the Great Plains and Midwest, where summer convection may ease drought locally, but is unlikely to overturn the longer term drought conditions. Drought development is possible in climatologically drier portions of the north-central High Plains. Along the Eastern Seaboard, the CPC seasonal outlook indicates enhanced chances for above-median rainfall, which would help ease the remaining drought conditions. No drought development is anticipated in Alaska, while forecasts for below-average dry season rainfall across Hawaii favor continued drought expansion. The onset of the summer wet season favors continued drought reduction in Puerto Rico.

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Tropical Events

Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico

The Eastern Pacific

The Central Pacific

Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.

And the Western Pacific

Weekly Tropical Forecast

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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).

First Temperature

And then Precipitation

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Mesoscale Events

The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.

Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.

This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.

There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps

The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

Looking ahead to next week.

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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings

Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.

Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
Convective Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook
The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook
Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook

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