Written by Sig Silber

HEADLINES (Updated 3:45 PM and 9:28 PM EDT) –

– Record-shattering heat forecast across the Northwest with cooler temperatures finally entering areas west of the Cascades by Tuesday

– Additional rounds of heavy rain and flash flooding likely over the Southern High Plains today

– Flash flooding threat continues from the Midwest to the Southern Plains through Tuesday, including parts of southwest Louisiana and the Upper Texas Coast

– Above average temperatures and oppressive heat found across the Northeast early this week, while well below average temperatures continue across much of the Southern Rockies/Plains

This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.

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For those interested in longer-term forecasts, we just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and it can be accessed here.

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CONUS Focal Points

Short Range Focal Points

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

423 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021

Valid 00Z Tue Jun 29 2021 – 00Z Thu Jul 01 2021

…Record-shattering heat forecast across the Northwest with cooler temperatures finally entering areas west of the Cascades by Tuesday…

…Additional rounds of heavy rain and flash flooding likely over the Southern High Plains today…

…Flash flooding threat continues from the Midwest to the Southern Plains through Tuesday, including parts of southwest Louisiana and the Upper Texas Coast…

…Above average temperatures and oppressive heat found across the Northeast early this week, while well below average temperatures continue across much of the Southern Rockies/Plains…

Additional oppressive heat is expected across the Pacific Northwest today, before the core of the unprecedented heat shifts into interior sections of the region on Tuesday and Wednesday. High temperatures are forecast to soar 30+ degrees above average throughout Washington and north-central Oregon to start the workweek, with temperatures peaking in the 100s and 110s. Numerous daily, monthly, and all-time temperature records are forecast on top of the records that went up in flames this weekend. To put it in perspective, Portland and Seattle broke their all-time high yesterday with high temperatures of 104 and 112 degrees, respectively. This level of heat is extremely dangerous and can be deadly if proper heat safety is not followed. Low temperatures are expected to remain very warm and in the mid-70s, which can make it even more difficult to stay cool.

Excessive Heat Warnings have been issued throughout most of the Northwest, Northern Great Basin, as well as parts of western Nevada and interior California. Residents are urged to stay in air-conditioned buildings, avoid strenuous outdoor activities, drink plenty of water, and check on family members/neighbors.

Cooler temperatures associated with a cold front and onshore winds are forecast to enter areas west of the Cascades by Tuesday, but extreme heat will remain and build farther inland across the Northern Great Basin this week. Additional high temperature records are a guarantee for interior sections of Washington and Oregon over the next few days, extending into most of Idaho and western Montana on Tuesday.

For the central U.S., showers and thunderstorms will pose a threat of flash flooding once again today and linger through midweek. A stationary boundary bisecting the country from the Lower Great Lakes to West Texas will be the focus for thunderstorm activity and intense rainfall rates. The Southern High Plains in particular are forecast to have the greatest chances of significant flash flooding. A Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of Excessive Rainfall has been issued through Tuesday morning across southeast New Mexico and parts of West Texas, where widespread rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches are possible over previously saturated land.

Farther east, slow-moving thunderstorms may also lead to flash flooding between central Oklahoma and northern Illinois. Much of this region has dealt with numerous instances of heavy rain and flooding over the last week; therefore, any additional downpours could lead to flash flooding. A Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall is in effect today from the Chicago Metro extending southwest through Oklahoma City to the Red River. Little change to the pattern is expected through tomorrow, and a Slight Risk of excessive rain is in effect on Tuesday over Southeast New Mexico, and Northern Oklahoma through Southeast Kansas with additional thunderstorm development forecast.

Not to be outdone, tropical showers with efficient rainfall rates are also possible throughout the Upper Texas Coast and Southwest Louisiana today and Tuesday. Thunderstorms here will have the capability of producing 2 to locally 4 inches of rain in a short amount of time atop a flood sensitive area. An additional Slight Risk area extends along the coast, including the Houston Metro, until tomorrow morning.

Meanwhile, newly named Tropical Storm Danny is just offshore the southern South Carolina coast, approximately 45 miles SSE of Charleston, per the National Hurricane Center. By this evening, Danny is forecast to move inland, producing tropical storm conditions as it makes landfall. Tropical Storm Warnings arc from the coastal South Carolina-Georgia border northward to the central South Carolina coast and slightly inland, including areas north/northwest of Charleston through late tonight/early tomorrow morning. Maximum sustained winds near 40 mph are currently estimated from Doppler RADAR and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft.

In addition to the wind near the coast, some heavy rainfall is possible from coastal South Carolina and Georgia inland over East-Central Georgia and all but Northwest South Carolina, although widespread flood issues are not anticipated. Fortunately, Danny is forecast to quickly weaken to a depression by Tuesday morning as it treks northwest toward north Georgia.

The northwest corner of the country isn’t the only place dealing with oppressive heat this week. While not nearly as extreme, parts of New England and the Northeast are expected to experience hot and muggy weather through Wednesday as a Bermuda high pressure system ushers consistent southerly winds up the East Coast. High temperatures are forecast to reach the low-to-mid 90s from Virginia to Maine, with heat indices into the triple digits. Heat Advisories have been issued between Delaware and Maine, with a subset of cities including Philadelphia, Wilmington, and Trenton under an Excessive Heat warning from Tuesday to Wednesday.

The opposite is true for the Southern Rockies and Southern Plains, where much below average temperatures are expected to remain through at least Wednesday. Cloud cover and showers are forecast to keep high temperatures in the 70s, which equates to 20-30 degrees below average.

We try to keep this up to date but if is not you can find the updated version here.

When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Thunderstorm Risk

This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.

The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.

Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.

Temperature

A version that shows a 40 hour animation and some other views can be found here

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Day 3 – 7 Hazards

Valid Thursday July 01 2021 – Monday July 05 2021

Hazards:

– Heavy rain across portions of the Southeast, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Southern Plains, and the Tennessee Valley, Sat-Mon, Jul 3-Jul 5.

– Heavy rain across portions of the Mid-Atlantic, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Central Appalachians, the Tennessee Valley, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Northeast, the Southern Appalachians, the Southeast, and the Ohio Valley, Thu-Fri, Jul 1-Jul 2.

– Flooding possible across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley.

– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Central Plains, the Great Lakes, the Middle Mississippi Valley, and the Southern Plains.

– Flooding likely across portions of the Southern Plains.

– Excessive heat across portions of the Central Great Basin, the Northern Plains, the Northern Rockies, California, the Northern Great Basin, and the Pacific Northwest, Thu-Mon, Jul 1-Jul 5.

– Excessive heat across portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Northern Plains, Fri-Sat, Jul 2-Jul 3.

– High winds across portions of mainland Alaska and the Aleutians, Thu, Jul 1.

Detailed Summary:

This upcoming medium range forecast period (Thursday, July 1 through Monday July, 5) will feature continued upper ridging over the western U.S. and the development of a closed-off low over the Midwest and Ohio Valley. There are signs that the overall pattern deamplifies and becomes more progressive toward the end of next weekend. Starting in the West, the heat wave will persist across much of the northern Intermountain region and Rockies through the period. Record or near record-breaking temperatures are expected through the weekend across eastern Washington across Idaho and into western Montana with highs around 15-20 degrees above normal (generally ranging from the upper 90s to mid 100s). Above normal temperatures will continue across the Pacific Northwest, but with the western part of the ridge gradually eroding, temperatures are not expected to approach any of the extremes currently being experienced over this region.

We did maintain the excessive heat area across central and eastern sections of Montana through next Monday, but the brunt of the heat will be Thursday-Friday, then lessening a few degrees over the weekend. This is partly in response to the weakening ridge, but also due to an increase in moisture and weak upper level disturbances that should allow for a little more cloud cover and the potential for isolated/scattered showers and thundershowers during the afternoon. Marginally excessive heat will also extend across sections of North Dakota and northern/central Minnesota Friday-Saturday before weak short wave troughing sliding across southern Canada results in a very slight cooling during the latter part of the weekend.

Farther to the south and east, a slow-moving frontal system associated with the developing cut-off low will provide a focus for deep Gulf of Mexico moisture and bring widespread showers and thundershowers from southern New England and the mid-Atlantic states southwestward into the Tennessee Valley during the latter part of this week. Much of this area has been relatively dry over the past couple of weeks, so the rainfall will mostly be welcome; however, the potential for isolated flooding exists in areas that experience repeat bouts of rainfall. The front is expected to settle southward toward the Gulf coast and stall out over the weekend. This will set the stage for potentially significant rainfall this upcoming weekend from southern Alabama and Florida Panhandle westward into southeastern Texas. This may be of particular concern from around New Orleans east to Tallahassee where rainfall has been upwards of 200-400% of normal during the past couple of weeks.

In Alaska, a strong low pressure system moving through the Aleutians will draw deep Pacific moisture northward and bring heavy rainfall (1-3 inches and locally higher) to the Alaska Peninsula/Aleutian Range and Kodiak Island Thursday. This will be accompanied by strong southeasterly winds along and in advance of the associated surface frontal boundary. This system will remain relatively strong as it rotates into and across interior Alaska later Friday through the weekend, with model guidance indicating the potential for areas of heavy rainfall. It’s a little hard to pinpoint with confidence where the heaviest rain will focus, but in general, the models suggest that the western part of the mainland is favored Saturday, with a possible shift to the east during Sunday.

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.

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Ski Snow Reports

We will resume snow coverage in the Fall

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Drought Coverage

We include drought information in this section.

More information can be found here.

June Drought Outlook.

Seasonal Outlook Issued May 20, 2021

Here is the short version of the discussion that was released with the new forecast.

Latest Seasonal Assessment – Hot, dry weather continued to exacerbate drought conditions across the West, where close to 90 percent of the Western Climate Region is currently experiencing drought conditions, and more than 50 percent of the region is experiencing severe to exceptional drought. Abnormally warm conditions also promoted drought expansion across the northern Plains and parts of the upper Midwest in the last 30 days. In contrast, copious rainfall and below average temperatures eased drought conditions across much of Texas and parts of the Southern Plains. Additionally, pockets of drought have persisted in southern Florida, the mid-Atlantic, and Carolinas, while drought continued to expand across northern New England, highlighted by much below normal streamflows. During the upcoming three months, little relief is anticipated across California and the Great Basin, where much of the region is in its dry season and abnormal warmth is favored to persist. Monsoon convection may bring localized relief to parts of southern Arizona and New Mexico, while below-average precipitation favored for the Northwest CONUS may promote continued drought development. The forecast is more uncertain across the Great Plains and Midwest, where summer convection may ease drought locally, but is unlikely to overturn the longer term drought conditions. Drought development is possible in climatologically drier portions of the north-central High Plains. Along the Eastern Seaboard, the CPC seasonal outlook indicates enhanced chances for above-median rainfall, which would help ease the remaining drought conditions. No drought development is anticipated in Alaska, while forecasts for below-average dry season rainfall across Hawaii favor continued drought expansion. The onset of the summer wet season favors continued drought reduction in Puerto Rico.

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Tropical Events

Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico

The Eastern Pacific

The Central Pacific

Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.

And the Western Pacific

Weekly Tropical Forecast

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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).

First Temperature

And then Precipitation

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Mesoscale Events

The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.

Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.

This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.

There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps

The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

Looking ahead to next week.

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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings

Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.

Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
Convective Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook
The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook
Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook

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