Written by Sig Silber

HEADLINES (Updated 4:27 PM EDT) –

– Dangerous and record-breaking heat wave likely throughout the Pacific Northwest and Northern Great Basin this weekend

– Multiple rounds of showers and potentially severe thunderstorms anticipated between the Central/Southern Plains and Great Lakes, generating a significant flash flooding concern that will abate as the weekend progresses

This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.

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For those interested in longer-term forecasts, we just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and it can be accessed here.

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CONUS Focal Points

Short Range Focal Points

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

407 PM EDT Fri Jun 25 2021

Valid 00Z Sat Jun 26 2021 – 00Z Mon Jun 28 2021

…Dangerous and record-breaking heat wave likely throughout the Pacific Northwest and Northern Great Basin this weekend…

…Multiple rounds of showers and potentially severe thunderstorms anticipated between the Central/Southern Plains and Great Lakes, generating a significant flash flooding concern that will abate as the weekend progresses…

Today marks the beginning of what is expected to be a multi-day extreme heat event across the northwestern United States. An anomalously strong upper-level ridge has settled into its new home over British Columbia, Canada where it is forecast to strengthen over the next few days as it remains virtually motionless, held in place by an Omega blocking pattern. Egged on by the persistent ridging and with no precipitation or cold fronts in sight to keep temperatures in check, daily highs are anticipated to rise progressively throughout the weekend into record-breaking territory. High temperatures throughout much of Oregon and Washington will likely soar 20 to 30 degrees above normal into triple digits, holding steady well into next week. Numerous temperature records are slated to fall throughout the course of this event, with some monthly and even the all-time records for Washington, Oregon, and Idaho in the cross hairs. Excessive Heat Warnings have been issued for much of Washington, Oregon, and Idaho as well as northern California in preparation for the dangerously hot conditions to come. Excessive Heat Watches have also been put into effect for portions of central and southern California, western Nevada, and south-central Idaho. It is worth noting here that heat is the leading cause of weather-related fatalities over a 30-year average from 1991-2020. As such, residents are urged to take the proper precautions to deal with the upcoming extreme conditions by staying hydrated, avoiding long periods of time outdoors, and remaining in air-conditioned rooms. Furthermore, with overnight temperatures remaining in the 70s throughout the duration of the event and thus providing little relief from the heat, heat stress and heat related illness will also be major concerns.

Looking east, active weather is set to be found across the central U.S. for much of the weekend. A quasi-stationary front is forecast to extend from the Great Lakes to the Central/Southern Plains throughout much of the short-range period and be the focus for multiple rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms. Given the stalled frontal boundary, sufficient atmospheric moisture, and the slow-moving nature of thunderstorms in the area, flash flooding will be a major concern from southeast Kansas to west-central Indiana through Saturday morning. Thunderstorms have already led to significant flash flooding and over 10 inches of rain in far northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri. Moving in concert with the southward progression of the front, the greatest flash flooding threat will slowly push southward overnight into the Southern Plains.

The Weather Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall through Sunday morning that covers parts of the Central/Southern Plains, Middle Mississippi Valley, and western Ohio Valley in anticipation of the heavy rainfall rates and high accumulation totals that are expected to occur over the next couple of days. Flash Flood Watches have been posted from the Southern Plains through the Great Lakes, while Flood Warnings have been issued for portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley.

In addition to flash flooding, severe weather will be another hazard to look out for along the active frontal boundary through Sunday morning. A Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center for an area encompassing the central/southern High Plains to Illinois and a smaller area covering portions of Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio. Isolated tornadoes, damaging winds gusts, and large hail are all a possibility as storms form and strengthen along the stalled frontal boundary this afternoon/evening. By Saturday, the severe weather threat is forecast to shift southward into the southern High Plains as the western edge of the front pushes south.

We try to keep this up to date but if is not you can find the updated version here.

When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Thunderstorm Risk

This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.

The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.

Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.

Temperature

A version that shows a 40 hour animation and some other views can be found here

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Day 3 – 7 Hazards

Valid Monday June 28 2021 – Friday July 02 2021

Hazards:

– Heavy rain across portions of the Southern Rockies and the Southern Plains, Mon-Tue, Jun 28-Jun 29.

– Heavy rain across portions of the Great Lakes, the Ohio Valley, the Central Appalachians, the Mid-Atlantic, and the Northeast, Wed-Fri, Jun 30-Jul 2.

– Heavy rain across portions of the Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley, Wed, Jun 30.

– Heavy rain across portions of the Southern Plains, the Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the Ohio Valley, the Great Lakes, and the Central/Southern Appalachians, Thu-Fri, Jul 1-Jul 2.

– Flooding possible across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle/Upper Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley.

– Flooding likely across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley.

– Excessive heat across portions of California, the Pacific Northwest, the Great Basin, and the

– Northern Rockies, Mon-Fri, Jun 28-Jul 2.

– Excessive heat across portions of California, the Pacific Northwest, the Great Basin, and the Southwest, Mon, Jun 28.

– Excessive heat across portions of the Great Basin, the Northern Rockies, and the Northern Plains, Tue-Fri, Jun 29-Jul 2.

– Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Northeast, Mon-Tue, Jun 28-Jun 29.

– Heavy rain across portions of mainland Alaska and the Aleutians, Wed-Fri, Jun 30-Jul 2.

– High winds across portions of mainland Alaska and the Aleutians, Wed-Thu, Jun 30-Jul 1.

Detailed Summary:

The medium range forecast period (Monday, June 28 to Friday, July 2) will feature a pretty stagnant upper-level pattern, with a persistent and strong upper-level high initially centered over southwestern Canada and moving into the northwestern U.S., upper-level troughing over the central U.S., and another upper high gradually shifting from near the Mid-Atlantic coast eastward. The anomalous upper high over the West is expected to continue causing much above average and likely widespread record-breaking temperatures Monday through Friday, with persistent hot weather in the Great Basin to Northern Rockies. The Pacific Northwest and the Desert Southwest should see their hottest temperatures from the short range period into Monday, before the upper high pivots eastward a bit and portions of Idaho, Montana, and Utah see increasing heat around Tuesday through late in the week. Temperatures in the 100s and even 110s will be common in the West, generally 15 to 30 degrees above normal. While fire danger is not expected to be too widespread due to modest winds, some fires could occur, and the hot and dry conditions will serve to worsen the drought in the Northwest and prime soils for fire spread as the summer progresses.

Farther south, however, the back end of a front slowly progressing across the central U.S. is forecast to pass through the Southern High Plains early in the workweek, which should lead to cooler temperatures and even heavy rain for parts of Colorado, New Mexico, and western Texas early in the week, and some showers could spread into Arizona as well. Any rain would likely be welcomed there due to drought conditions. Much of the central and eastern U.S. are likely to see scattered showers and thunderstorms through the week as the upper-level low/trough persists and a couple of slow-moving fronts provide areas for abundant moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to focus. Multiple days of moderate rainfall are possible in portions of the south-central U.S., but at this point it appears that higher rainfall totals may be likely by the latter part of the week, when a front helps to focus rainfall shifting slowly from the Great Lakes region southeastward into the Northeast, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and back into the Southern Plains. The rain could cause flooding and flash flooding issues especially over areas that see heavy rainfall during the short range period as well. Coastal Texas could see locally moderate to heavy rain for the beginning of the week, while the Florida Peninsula will also see a wet pattern during the period.

The northeastern U.S. can expect a warm period for the first part of the workweek due to the upper high centered near the Mid-Atlantic coast bringing in warm air. Temperatures are expected to be generally in the 90s, which will be most anomalous for portions of New England. Temperatures are forecast to slowly moderate closer to normal from midweek onward as the upper high shifts away and the cold front and rain approach.

In Alaska, a series of low pressure systems are forecast to meander near and potentially cross the Aleutians next week, setting up a moist southerly flow pattern into the Alaska Peninsula and surrounding areas. Moderate to locally heavy rain is likely to result, with chances increasing Wednesday in the Aleutians to Alaska Peninsula and spreading eastward into the Kodiak Island/Lower Cook Inlet area by Friday. The lows could also produce high winds and some anomalously high waves for this time of year. Additionally, farther north, moderate precipitation is expected for portions of the North Slope and Brooks Range for the first half of the workweek associated with a cold front. As the front brings cooler than normal temperatures there, some precipitation especially in higher elevations could be in the form of light snow.

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.

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Ski Snow Reports

We will resume snow coverage in the Fall

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Drought Coverage

We include drought information in this section.

More information can be found here.

June Drought Outlook.

Seasonal Outlook Issued May 20, 2021

Here is the short version of the discussion that was released with the new forecast.

Latest Seasonal Assessment – Hot, dry weather continued to exacerbate drought conditions across the West, where close to 90 percent of the Western Climate Region is currently experiencing drought conditions, and more than 50 percent of the region is experiencing severe to exceptional drought. Abnormally warm conditions also promoted drought expansion across the northern Plains and parts of the upper Midwest in the last 30 days. In contrast, copious rainfall and below average temperatures eased drought conditions across much of Texas and parts of the Southern Plains. Additionally, pockets of drought have persisted in southern Florida, the mid-Atlantic, and Carolinas, while drought continued to expand across northern New England, highlighted by much below normal streamflows. During the upcoming three months, little relief is anticipated across California and the Great Basin, where much of the region is in its dry season and abnormal warmth is favored to persist. Monsoon convection may bring localized relief to parts of southern Arizona and New Mexico, while below-average precipitation favored for the Northwest CONUS may promote continued drought development. The forecast is more uncertain across the Great Plains and Midwest, where summer convection may ease drought locally, but is unlikely to overturn the longer term drought conditions. Drought development is possible in climatologically drier portions of the north-central High Plains. Along the Eastern Seaboard, the CPC seasonal outlook indicates enhanced chances for above-median rainfall, which would help ease the remaining drought conditions. No drought development is anticipated in Alaska, while forecasts for below-average dry season rainfall across Hawaii favor continued drought expansion. The onset of the summer wet season favors continued drought reduction in Puerto Rico.

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Tropical Events

Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico

The Eastern Pacific

The Central Pacific

Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.

And the Western Pacific

Weekly Tropical Forecast

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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).

First Temperature

And then Precipitation

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Mesoscale Events

The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.

Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.

This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.

There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps

The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

Looking ahead to next week.

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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings

Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.

Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
Convective Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook
The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook
Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook

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