Written by Sig Silber

HEADLINES (Updated 5:35 PM EDT) –

– Tropical Depression Claudette to continue producing pockets of heavy rain and thunderstorms throughout the eastern Carolinas this evening, with gusty winds possible along coastal regions into early Monday morning

– Heavy rain and severe thunderstorms possible across parts the Midwest tonight and into the Interior Northeast on Monday

– Dangerous and record-breaking heat wanes across California and the Southwest to start the workweek, while expanding into the Pacific Northwest

This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.

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For those interested in longer-term forecasts, we just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and it can be accessed here.

Directory

CONUS Focal Points

Short Range Focal Points

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

330 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

Valid 00Z Mon Jun 21 2021 – 00Z Wed Jun 23 2021

…Tropical Depression Claudette to continue producing pockets of heavy rain and thunderstorms throughout the eastern Carolinas this evening, with gusty winds possible along coastal regions into early Monday morning…

…Heavy rain and severe thunderstorms possible across parts the Midwest tonight and into the Interior Northeast on Monday…

…Dangerous and record-breaking heat wanes across California and the Southwest to start the workweek, while expanding into the Pacific Northwest…

Tropical Depression Claudette is currently moving into Upstate South Carolina this afternoon and is forecast to swing northeastward into eastern North Carolina by Monday morning. As it does so, Claudette is expected to restrengthen into a tropical storm and produce gusty winds along coastal sections of North Carolina. Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued. Additionally, areas of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms will remain possible from northern Florida and the Florida Panhandle to southeast North Carolina overnight. By Monday afternoon the system will exit into the eastern Atlantic Ocean and all associated weather hazards will quickly diminish.

Farther northwest, a strengthening area of low pressure and potent cold front will be responsible for isolated flash flooding concerns and severe thunderstorms throughout the Midwest and portions of the Great Lakes tonight. The Storm Prediction Center has issued and Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe weather from Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio to far southeastern Iowa. Isolated tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are all a possibility. Multiple rounds of heavy rain could also cause isolated instances of flash flooding throughout this same region.

By Monday, the aforementioned cold front is forecast to reach the Ohio and Lower Mississippi valleys. Showers and thunderstorms will be widespread ahead of and along the frontal boundary. A few storms could turn severe and produce damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes between the Ohio Valley and interior sections of the Northeast.

Meanwhile, flash flooding will be the main hazard throughout the Tennessee Valley and Deep South on Monday, as many areas recently received an excess amount of rain over the last week. The cold front is then expected to squeeze most of the rain chances to the Southeast, Gulf Coast, and East Coast on Tuesday, while also ushering in comfortable and below average temperatures.

For the western U.S., a long-awaited cooling trend is finally on the way for the Southwest on Monday. High temperatures will once again soar well into the triple digits this afternoon, but will settle to near and slightly below average early this week as an upper-level low spins off the coast of California. Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories remain in effect for much of California, the Southwest, and the central Great Basin.

The opposite will be true throughout the Pacific Northwest as this region has mostly avoided the recent heat wave until now. High temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above average will be felt across Oregon and Washington through Monday, before cooler temperatures return on Tuesday.

With the ongoing heat and exceptionally dry soil, fire weather is also a concern for much of the Intermountain West and Southwest over the next couple of days.

We try to keep this up to date but if is not you can find the updated version here.

When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Thunderstorm Risk

This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.

The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.

Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.

Temperature

A version that shows a 40 hour animation and some other views can be found here

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Day 3 – 7 Hazards

Valid Sunday June 20 2021 – Thursday June 24 2021

Hazards:

– Heavy rain across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Mid-Atlantic, the Southern Appalachians, the Southeast, and the Southern Plains, Sat-Wed, Jun 19-Jun 23.

– Heavy rain across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Northern Plains, Sun-Mon, Jun 20-Jun 21.

– Flooding possible across portions of the Southeast and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

– Flooding possible across portions of the Southeast and the Tennessee Valley.

– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Southeast, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Southern Plains, and the Tennessee Valley.

– Excessive heat across portions of the Southern Plains, the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Rockies, and the Northern Great Basin, Sun-Wed, Jun 20-Jun 23.

– Excessive heat across portions of the Central Great Basin, California, and the Southwest, Sun-Mon, Jun 20-Jun 21.

– Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Central Great Basin, the Northern Rockies, the Central Rockies, California, the Northern Great Basin, the Pacific Northwest, and the Southwest, Sun-Wed, Jun 20-Jun 23.

– Heavy rain across portions of mainland Alaska, Wed-Thu, Jun 23-Jun 24.

Detailed Summary:

The medium range hazards forecast period (June 20th-June 25th) will feature the tail end of excessive heat in the west, while heavy rain threatens the Gulf Coast beginning this weekend ahead of Potential Tropical Cyclone Three in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Additional heavy rain is possible over parts of the Midwest and Southeast early next week ahead of a series of frontal systems.

After a week of blistering hot temperatures in the West, some relief is on the way in the form of slightly cooler (albeit still warm) temperatures. By early next week, the ridge axis shifts east as a closed low develops off the California coast while a vigorous trough pivots through the Midwest.

However, this transition will occur gradually, and temperatures will remain 10-15 degrees above normal until at least the 21st in California, southern Nevada, and Arizona. After Monday, temperatures finally moderate to average (and even below average along the coast) as the upper low inches closer toward land. Meanwhile, a strong cold front associated with the Central U.S. trough will dive south from Canada Monday the 21st, and usher in below average temperatures to the Northern Plains and Rockies. Post-frontal high temperatures quickly rebound north of the Great Basin to slightly above average on the 22nd. Given that forecast heat indices fail to break 100 over much of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest for the remainder of the forecast period, the Excessive Heat area was largely changed to Much Above Normal to reflect above average (but not heat wave magnitude) high temperatures.

The one exception is the area east of the Cascades in Eastern Washington/Oregon, where highs touch the upper 90’s through the 23rd.

Additional excessive heat is likely over South Texas beginning Sunday, where ensemble guidance highlighted a greater than fifty percent chance of exceeding 105 degree heat indices for multiple days as a tropical airmass surges out of the Gulf.

All eyes remain on Potential Tropical Cyclone Three located in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, with advisories beginning from the National Hurricane Center shortly after this writing. Some spread exists within deterministic model guidance as to the exact position of the the system once ashore the morning of the 20th, but the GEFS, EPS, and CMC ensembles are all in agreement on a position somewhere close to the Central Mississippi-Alabama border. However, it is emphasized that these forecasts can quickly change; users are encouraged to monitor the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center and Weather Prediction Center for the latest information.

More certain are the expected significant heavy rain impacts as a plume of tropical moisture accompanies the system to produce heavy rainfall along the Central Gulf Coast, and further inland over the Coastal Plain into the Piedmont. The heavy rain area has been accordingly expanded further into the Carolinas to account for a potential storm track in the area, where orographic enhancement of rainfall could occur along the Piedmont and Blue Ridge mountains.

An additional round of heavy rain is possible over the region from the 22nd-23rd as the aforementioned sweeping cold front interacts with remnant tropical moisture, potentially exasperating any earlier accumulations from this weekend.

Elsewhere, heavy rain is likely from the 20th-21st as convection initiates along and north of a warm front with abundant moisture in place. The Heavy Rain area was adjusted further north to match higher ensemble confidence of exceeding an inch of rain, and to line up with portions of the Missouri River which may be more vulnerable to heavy rain. With trends in forecast QPF, have continued to hold off on a heavy rain area over the Great Lakes with the progressive nature of the system.

Further east, some higher forecast totals may bear watching for a Heavy Rain area on the 23rd as the cold front interacts with remnant tropical moisture before a dry airmass settles in.

Over Alaska, a shot of heavy rain appears likely from the Kenai Peninsula and further south the 23rd-24th as a deep low approaches the Western Aleutian chain. Ensemble consensus for higher totals prompted the addition of a heavy rain area there.

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.

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Ski Snow Reports

We will resume snow coverage in the Fall

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Drought Coverage

We include drought information in this section.

More information can be found here.

June Drought Outlook.

Seasonal Outlook Issued May 20, 2021

Here is the short version of the discussion that was released with the new forecast.

Latest Seasonal Assessment – Hot, dry weather continued to exacerbate drought conditions across the West, where close to 90 percent of the Western Climate Region is currently experiencing drought conditions, and more than 50 percent of the region is experiencing severe to exceptional drought. Abnormally warm conditions also promoted drought expansion across the northern Plains and parts of the upper Midwest in the last 30 days. In contrast, copious rainfall and below average temperatures eased drought conditions across much of Texas and parts of the Southern Plains. Additionally, pockets of drought have persisted in southern Florida, the mid-Atlantic, and Carolinas, while drought continued to expand across northern New England, highlighted by much below normal streamflows. During the upcoming three months, little relief is anticipated across California and the Great Basin, where much of the region is in its dry season and abnormal warmth is favored to persist. Monsoon convection may bring localized relief to parts of southern Arizona and New Mexico, while below-average precipitation favored for the Northwest CONUS may promote continued drought development. The forecast is more uncertain across the Great Plains and Midwest, where summer convection may ease drought locally, but is unlikely to overturn the longer term drought conditions. Drought development is possible in climatologically drier portions of the north-central High Plains. Along the Eastern Seaboard, the CPC seasonal outlook indicates enhanced chances for above-median rainfall, which would help ease the remaining drought conditions. No drought development is anticipated in Alaska, while forecasts for below-average dry season rainfall across Hawaii favor continued drought expansion. The onset of the summer wet season favors continued drought reduction in Puerto Rico.

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Tropical Events

Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico

The Eastern Pacific

The Central Pacific

Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.

And the Western Pacific

Weekly Tropical Forecast

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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).

First Temperature

And then Precipitation

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Mesoscale Events

The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.

Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.

This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.

There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps

The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

Looking ahead to next week.

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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings

Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.

Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
Convective Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook
The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook
Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook

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