Written by Sig Silber

U.S. Crop production continues to look good in spite of soil conditions not being ideal. We are repeating the University of Arizona invitation to participate in the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forcecast Contest. See the latest video in our weekly education program on sustainable agriculture. Tonight’s article contains all of our regular features and as usual, we include an intermediate-term weather forecast. But it runs long since we are including more international information than usual.

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It follows the May NOAA Global Climate Report

This report comes out every month but we have not reported on it before or at least not fully. We can’t report on it every month. But from what we publish tonight you will have a good idea was to what is included in that report.

Now we look at three months

Now let us look at precipitation and you will notice the NCEI report does not show long term trends because there are none to report.

Special Appendix

Play for fun and to increase your knowledge of the North American Monsoon (NAM). But there are prizes: two of them actually

Monsoon Madness: Professional and Amateur Forecasters Invited to Bet on Much-Needed Rain Click here to read.

Regional Conditions

Reservoir Conditions

We might as well show the situation for the California Reservoirs here.

Let’s looks at some other information now.

Here is what the SNOTEL data is telling us about Spring runoff. I am just showing the basin view.

And it is always useful to look at the last seven days.

I think we have all gotten sick at looking at the water year to date which by now does not change unless there was a Noah’s Ark event. So I am not showing it.

Let’s look at the current drought situation.

Here we look at four time periods: one week, one month, six months, and a full year.

Drought Discussion (The Regional links are live and will take you to the drought map for that Region)

This Week’s Drought Summary

Warmer than normal temperatures continued their hold this week on the northern tier of the Lower 48, particularly in the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest. Across the north, widespread degradation of drought conditions occurred in areas where heavy rainfall missed. A few areas that received heavy precipitation and saw localized improvements were coastal Oregon and Washington, western Montana, and eastern Montana and western North Dakota. Widespread heavy rain occurred in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, where drought conditions improved or ceased in many locations. Scattered storms over the last few weeks in the southern Great Plains and eastern New Mexico led to isolated improvements to drought conditions, and a few degradations to drought conditions in western Oklahoma where heavier storms missed. Conditions improved after beneficial rainfall in eastern Puerto Rico. Continued drying in Hawaii led to degradation in drought conditions on many of the islands.

Northeast

Rain fell across much of the southwestern half of the region, leading to improving conditions in some areas, while conditions remained the same or worsened in northern New England and alongside the eastern Great Lakes. Moderate drought developed in northern New York, where short-term precipitation deficits mounted, soil moisture decreased, and streamflow lessened. A similar story played out in parts of Maine, where widespread degradation to moderate drought and abnormal dryness occurred. A small area of moderate drought also developed on Cape Cod, where short-term precipitation deficits grew and streamflow dropped. Heavy rain fell in West Virginia and Virginia, where conditions improved enough for the removal of moderate drought in most parts of Virginia (excluding far south-central reaches of the Commonwealth).

Southeast

The rainfall this week allowed drought conditions to improve, sporadically, from South Florida to North Carolina. Moderate drought lessened in coverage along the southwest Florida Gulf Coast after heavy rain fell this week and improved conditions there. Severe drought ceased in North Carolina and decreased in coverage in South Carolina after recent heavy rain. Moderate drought coverage was also reduced across a wide swath of eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina.

South

Scattered heavy rain fell across the eastern half of the region this week, while rains were much spottier (though locally heavy) in Texas and Oklahoma. Moderate and severe drought conditions shifted northwest in western Oklahoma in response to changing conditions after rain this week, leaving some areas improved and others degraded. Several areas in southwest Texas saw improvement this week after rain from the last couple of weeks improved conditions there. In southwest Texas, the Trans-Pecos, and along the Rio Grande to near Laredo, abnormal dryness and all drought categories continued.

Midwest

Generally warm and dry conditions prevailed in the northern half of the region over the past week, leading to widespread worsening of drought and dryness. Continued warm and dry weather worsened precipitation deficits in the western and northern parts of Chicagoland, as well as in adjacent southeast Wisconsin, and extreme drought developed in those areas. In this general region, many crops are struggling due to the ongoing severe and extreme drought. Moderate drought also developed across central Wisconsin as short-term precipitation deficits mounted. Moderate drought coverage also grew in western regions of Minnesota. Drought coverage also expanded across a large portion of southern Iowa. Recent dry weather and lowering streamflow led to the development of moderate drought in St Louis County, Missouri. In northern portions of Wisconsin and the Michigan Upper Peninsula, rain this week kept encroachment of drought or abnormal dryness at bay. Conditions were also better in the Ohio River Valley, where some small areas of abnormal dryness lessened their aerial grip after rain this past week.

High Plains

Precipitation across the High Plains region varied significantly this week, though very warm temperatures were consistent across the region. Notably, many places in the central and northern Great Plains have had warmer daytime high temperatures than much of the southern Great Plains, leading to potentially large losses of surface moisture to the atmosphere through evaporation and transpiration in the northern Great Plains. A few areas in the western half of North Dakota received enough rain from several thunderstorm events to improve their drought status, though this primarily occurred in areas with very heavy rain amounts (some locales received over 5 inches). For the most part, while welcome, the heavy rains have come after months of warm and dry conditions, and the widespread severe, extreme, and exceptional drought has been slow to improve as impacts to plants and livestock continue. In north-central and northeast South Dakota, and adjacent portions of North Dakota, moderate and severe drought expanded.

West

Three notable widespread precipitation events occurred in the northwestern United States this week, which led to limited improvements in northeast Montana, western Montana, and coastal regions of Washington and Oregon. Recent scattered rainfall from thunderstorms in the high plains and high desert of eastern and south-central New Mexico improved drought conditions locally, though widespread moderate-to-exceptional drought maintained its grip on most of the state. Northeast Montana received locally enough rain from severe thunderstorms for limited improvement from extreme to severe drought. However, similar to North Dakota and South Dakota, agricultural impacts and warm temperatures continued, limiting the rain’s benefit on conditions in the area. A swath of precipitation covered areas from southwest Idaho to the high country of western Montana, leading to a small area of improved conditions in western Montana. Finally, a late-season atmospheric river event delivered welcome precipitation to coastal portions of Washington and Oregon, which improved short- and long-term precipitation deficits enough for localized one- and two-category improvements in drought conditions. Unfortunately, most of the rest of the West received little to no precipitation, and warmer than normal temperatures plagued much of the region. Degradations to conditions occurred in northeast California and south-central Oregon, southern Montana, central and western Wyoming, far east-central Wyoming, and the high country of west-central Colorado. All of these locations saw short- and long-term precipitation deficits continue to mount. Most of the West region remained in moderate, severe, extreme, or exceptional drought. In central California, farmers have been warned about potential water cutoffs, while wildfire concerns and firework restrictions are prevalent in Utah, Arizona, and New Mexico.

Caribbean

Beneficial rains fell this week in Puerto Rico; as a result, streamflow increased and short-term precipitation deficits lessened, and moderate drought and abnormal dryness decreased in coverage.

Drought persists across the U.S. Virgin Islands, but there has been some limited improvement over the past few months. The recent uptick in rainfall prompted an improvement to D1 at St. John, joining St. Thomas, which was improved to D1 earlier in the month. St. Croix remains in severe drought (D2).

For June 1 – 15, St. Thomas reported 1.58 inches of rain, about a half-inch above normal. Although rainfall has totaled only slightly below normal since April, December – February brought only 3.93 inches of rain, compared to a normal of 8.19 inches. So continued near to above normal rainfall is needed for more improvement.

St. John recorded 2.35 inches of rain for the first half of June, almost 65 percent above the normal. Reports indicate that vegetation is significantly greener than a few weeks ago, which also supports the improvement to D1. Still, only two-thirds of normal has fallen so far this calendar year, so continued and consistent normal to surplus rainfall will be needed to engender further improvement.

As opposed to St. John and St. Thomas, St. Croix has not experienced as significant an increase in recent rainfall. The first half of June brought only 0.84 of an inch of rain, about 90 percent of normal. Also, subnormal rainfall has been in place longer at St. Croix, with less than normal rainfall each month since September 2020. During September 2020 – mid-June 2021, 19.81 inches of rain have fallen on St. Croix, compared to a normal of over 30 inches. With dryness in place longer, and no recent uptick in moisture, St. Croix remains at D2 despite improvement elsewhere.

Pacific

No changes were made to this week’s depiction in Alaska, where abnormally dry conditions continued in the northern reaches of the state. In Hawaii, abnormal dryness and moderate drought continued on Niihau, Kauai, and Oahu. Severe and moderate drought advanced eastward on Molokai, where farmers are beginning to supplement feed due to poor forage conditions. One-category degradations to moderate and severe drought were made on Lanai, where vegetation health worsened this week. Moderate and severe drought continued on Kahoolawe. On Maui, moderate and severe drought became more widespread, as paltry rainfall and poor streamflow have attracted feral deer to farm lots, leading to crop damage. Moderate drought also grew in coverage on Hawaii, where brush fires have been occurring as a result of drying conditions.

Last week (Jun 9-15, 2021) surface troughs providing low-level convergence were coupled with upper-level divergence. A monsoon trough was established at times over western Micronesia while trade-wind convergence, with a modest Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) at times, covered central to eastern Micronesia. A few weak and transient low pressure systems mainly affected western parts of the region while a weak frontal boundary meandered around the Marianas. South of the equator, a frontal boundary passed over the Samoan Islands, bringing a few days of intermittent heavy rain.

Satellite-based rainfall estimates showed two broken bands of rainfall, one extending from Indonesia eastward across Micronesia to beyond the Date Line, and another from Indonesia southeastward through the Samoan Islands. Rainfall totaled 1 to locally over 2 inches in scattered areas across Palau, Yap, parts of the Marshall Islands, northern parts of the Marianas, and southern portions of Chuuk, Pohnpei, and Kosrae. Less than an inch of rain fell across southern parts of the Marianas, most of the Marshall Islands, and northern parts of Micronesia. Farther south, one to locally 4 inches or rain fell in bands across American Samoa.

Longer-term – the past several weeks to several months – most locations have received sufficient to abundant rainfall. In general, periods of deficient rainfall have been short-lived, and mitigated by heavier rains at other times. There have been a few notable exceptions, but as of mid-June 2021, no drought is indicated on any of the affiliated Pacific Islands, and only Wotje (northeast Marshall Islands) and Kapingamarangi (southernmost Micronesia) are experiencing some degree of dryness not rising to the level of drought.

Palau reports 3.92 inches of rain for the first half of June, which is less than 45 percent of normal. But this follows a January – May with over 75 inches of rain, which was more than 2 feet above (about 150% of) normal. Dryness and drought shouldn’t be a concern in the near future.

In contrast, rainfall has been near to slightly below normal across the Marianas. Saipan reports about 13.5 inches of rain so far this year, which is less than 2 inches short of normal. Other locations were similarly close to normal for January – May, though deficits were more noticeable at Rota Airport (15.17 inches of rain, about 69 percent of normal) and Tinian (11.85 inches, or 75 percent of normal). But the prior wet season (July – December 2020) brought adequate to surplus rainfall, generally ranging from 43 to over 75 inches. This was notably below normal only at Tinian, resulting in an 11-month (July 2020 – May 2021) total of 54.77 inches, about 75 percent of normal. Even there, however, rainfall was sufficient during the last half of 2020 to keep impacts in check for the time being.

Abundant rains have fallen on all but the extreme southern reaches of Micronesia since autumn 2020. Since October 2020, Kosrae has been soaked by over 209 inches of rain, which is 70 inches (50 percent) above normal. Yap received over 107 inches of rain during this period, about 37 inches (44 percent) above normal. Since the start of the calendar year, both sites reported 148 to 153 percent of normal – a surplus of 20 to 25 inches. North of Kapingamarangi, the 14 reporting stations received a median of 156 percent of normal for October 2020 – mid-June 2021) and 151 percent of normal since the start of the calendar year.

Kapingamarangi, located well south of the other reporting locations in Micronesia, has been a dramatic exception to the long-term wetness entrenched elsewhere. But even here, rainfall has increased over the past few months. Moisture shortages were most dramatic during the May 2020 – February 2021 period. Less than 39 inches fell during those 10 months, when the average exceeds 104 inches (37 percent of normal). A wetter pattern has prevailed since March, with the last 3.5 months bringing 30 percent more rain than the prior 10 months. Over 50 inches of rain fell March – mid-June 2021, somewhat more than the normal of 41.87 inches. Most drought-related impacts have been mitigated by the recent spell of heavy rain, but D0 (L) is maintained due primarily to lingering concerns about the quantity and quality of well water. Even including recent precipitation, Kapanamarangi rainfall totals from October 2020 to present remain about 65 percent of normal.

June to date has been drier than normal across most of the Marshall Islands. Jaluit reports 9.7 inches of rain for the first half of June, which is well above normal, but Ailinglaplap, Kwajelein, and Wotje have recotded 1.3 to 2.7 inches of rain, which is only 46 to 54 percent of normal. But from the start of the year through May, Ailinglaplap and Kwajelein reported 52.48 inches (148 percent of normal) and 28.14 inches (118 percent of norm), respectively, so dryness is not a concern at those locations. But at Wotje is at D0 (L) with subnormal rainfall dating back to December 2020. They report 14.63″ of rain from December through mid-June 2021, which is about two-thirds normal. Looking merely at precipitation mathematics, one could argue for a drier depiction than D0 (L), but the degree of impacts can’t justify a drier designation.

In American Samoa, June 1 – 15 rainfall is well above normal, with Pago Pago reporting 5.82 inches of rain (almost double the normal). This follows 3 months (March through May 2021) of deficient precipitation, when 24.53 inches of rain fell, less than 75 percent of normal. However, each of the 7 months before that were wetter than normal. August 2020 – February 2021 featured over 108 inches of rain, more than 40 percent above the normal. So despite March-May dryness, heavier rains before and after this period have squelched dryness-related impacts in the near future.

Looking Ahead

As of June 16, the National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Prediction Center is forecasting two areas of significant precipitation through the evening of June 21. One area of forecast rain covers much of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions, and could be highly beneficial to southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois if it occurs. Large rain amounts are also forecast from the central Gulf Coast to Georgia, northwest Florida, and western South Carolina, in association with a tropical disturbance being monitored by the NWS National Hurricane Center as of the afternoon of June 16th. For more information on this system, please monitor forecasts from the National Hurricane Center, the Weather Prediction Center, and your local National Weather Service forecast. The NWS Climate Prediction Center forecast for June 22-26 favors above normal precipitation in the western Great Lakes, lower Missouri River Valley, and the Southeast (excluding South Florida), while below normal precipitation is favored in the Pacific Northwest, Intermountain West, and North Dakota. During this period, warmer than normal temperatures are favored in the western Great Plains and West, while below normal temperatures are more likely from the Great Lakes to the central and eastern Gulf Coast). In Alaska, above normal temperatures are favored in the north from June 22-26, below-normal precipitation is favored in east-central Alaska, while above normal precipitation is favored elsewhere in the state.

Regional Reports

Soil Conditions

The result of the drought is very dry soil conditions in some areas. There is also some very wet areas.

Surface Soil

Subsurface

Drought Outlook

Here is the discussion that was releasded with the new forecast. There are two verions and I am presenting the short version as it is easier to understand.

Latest Seasonal Assessment – Hot, dry weather continued to exacerbate drought conditions across the West, where close to 90 percent of the Western Climate Region is currently experiencing drought conditions, and more than 50 percent of the region is experiencing severe to exceptional drought. Abnormally warm conditions also promoted drought expansion across the northern Plains and parts of the upper Midwest in the last 30 days. In contrast, copious rainfall and below average temperatures eased drought conditions across much of Texas and parts of the Southern Plains. Additionally, pockets of drought have persisted in southern Florida, the mid-Atlantic, and Carolinas, while drought continued to expand across northern New England, highlighted by much below normal streamflows. During the upcoming three months, little relief is anticipated across California and the Great Basin, where much of the region is in its dry season and abnormal warmth is favored to persist. Monsoon convection may bring localized relief to parts of southern Arizona and New Mexico, while below-average precipitation favored for the Northwest CONUS may promote continued drought development. The forecast is more uncertain across the Great Plains and Midwest, where summer convection may ease drought locally, but is unlikely to overturn the longer term drought conditions. Drought development is possible in climatologically drier portions of the north-central High Plains. Along the Eastern Seaboard, the CPC seasonal outlook indicates enhanced chances for above-median rainfall, which would help ease the remaining drought conditions. No drought development is anticipated in Alaska, while forecasts for below-average dry season rainfall across Hawaii favor continued drought expansion. The onset of the summer wet season favors continued drought reduction in Puerto Rico.

Since we are entering fire season it is time to be showing the wildland fire potential outlook. These will update automatically shortly after the month changes.

Crop Progress Reports

Additional Information can be found here. Pretty much it is the same information as shown in the above tables but at the end there is some information on the methodology used.

Agriculture Sustainability Videos

Introduction

Automation is Increasing in Agriculture

Source: Econintersect Video of the Day June 13, 2021… Click here to see the little writeup that goes with it.

Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

Showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).

First Temperature

And then Precipitation

The Week 3-4 Discussion is always interesting so we include it in the article. Similar discussions for the 6 -10 Day and 8 – 14 Day Forecasts are available here.

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Jul 03 2021-Fri Jul 16 2021

ENSO-neutral conditions remain across the tropical Pacific. As indicated by RMM indices, weak convection associated with the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is observed over the Indian Ocean. Dynamical model guidance suggests that the MJO will become inactive in the coming days. There is potential for weak convection to re-emerge over the Western Hemisphere during Week-2, but model uncertainty exists with regard to the amplitude of the signal. Furthermore, tropical impacts on North American sensible weather during the summer months are often weak. Today’s Week 3-4 temperature and precipitation forecasts rely on dynamical model guidance with considerations from long-term trends and soil moisture conditions.

There is reasonable agreement among forecast guidance in terms of the predicted large-scale 500-hPa circulation patterns. The dynamical models (CFS, GEFS, ECWMF, JMA, and the SubX multi-model ensemble) consistently forecast ridging over the Aleutian Islands and over the Northern Rockies and Plains, although the JMA solution is weaker in amplitude relative to the ECWMF and the CFS. Larger discrepancies are also noted over the Gulf of Alaska where solutions range from weakly negative 500-hPa height anomalies (GEFS) to positive height anomalies (CFS).

The temperature forecast for the Week 3-4 period tilts toward above normal probabilities for much of the northern tier of CONUS, consistent with the predicted ridging over the region and decadal trends. The highest probabilities are forecast over the Intermountain West where model agreement is strongest. Below normal temperature probabilities along the Gulf Coast are favored by dynamical model guidance and are further supported by the high soil moisture in that region. Over Alaska, equal chances are forecast for much of the state due to conflicting signals across the model guidance, but above normal temperature probabilities are consistently favored for the Aleutian Islands and the North Slope.

The precipitation forecast also reflects the aforementioned ridging over the Northern Plains and decadal trends resulting in enhanced probabilities for dry conditions over the Pacific Northwest extending into the Plains. Elevated probabilities for above normal precipitation are forecast along the Gulf Coast from Alabama to Texas. Some models (particularly the GEFS) indicated the potential for moisture into the Southwest related to tropical cyclone activity during the Week 2-3 period, but track/intensity are highly uncertain at these time scales and thus equal chances are forecast. Equal chances are also favored for the East Coast as well as Alaska due to high model uncertainty.

Near-normal sea surface temperatures dominate the region surrounding Hawaii. Dynamical model guidance from the SubX suite indicates equal chances with a slight tilt toward above normal temperature probabilities in the northwest islands. Similarly, dynamical models favor equal chances in the southeast, increasing to slightly above normal probabilities in the northwest.

Energy News

The Biden ban on awarding oil and gas drilling leases on Federal Land has been temporarily blocked. There are many media reports on this. Here is an interesting one.

International

Country Reports: Here we go. But you can always find these reports here. I am not necessarily posting the full report.

The UK is interesting.

Moving to Turkey but still focused on Cotton

Switching to Australian Sorghum

Switching to Australian Sorghum

Let’s take a look at the Dominicon Republica and Rice Production

Let’s look at the Philippines

This may have to do with La Nina Modoki.

Science Feature

No Science Feature this week

Environmental News

Nothing to report this week but the Energy News is of course related.

Major Sources of Information Used in this Weekly Report. We will not be using them all each week but the reader is welcome to refer to these resources.