Written by Sig Silber

HEADLINES (Updated 5:31 PM EDT) –

– Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central High Plains, Central Gulf Coast, and parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians through Monday morning

– Building heat, as well as potential fire danger, is forecast for much of the West

This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.

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For those interested in longer-term forecasts, we just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and it can be accessed here.

Short Range Focal Points

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021
Valid 00Z Mon Jun 14 2021 – 00Z Wed Jun 16 2021
…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central High Plains, Central Gulf Coast, and parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians through Monday morning…
…Building heat, as well as potential fire danger, is forecast for much of the West…
Multiple weak fronts and some upper-level impulses will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms east of the Mississippi River to the East Coast through the remainder of the day. Meanwhile, moisture streaming into the Central High Plains and a weak front will trigger showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Central Plains and Southern Plains.
The SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over the Central High Plains, Central Gulf Coast, and parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians through Monday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.
On Monday, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Northeast and along the Gulf Coast into the Southeast. The same general areas will be active on Tuesday as well.
Meanwhile, in the West, heat will build through Tuesday as an upper-level ridge expands eastward over the Rockies and the Southwest. Therefore, excessive Heat Watches and Warnings and Heat Advisories are in place, especially from Monday onward for portions of California, the Desert Southwest, and the Great Basin.
Hot temperatures in the 90s and even into the 100s will spread eastward into the Northern High Plains into Tuesday. Record high temperatures are expected to be widespread across the Desert Southwest, Intermountain West, and the Rockies through Tuesday evening.
Given the heat, dry conditions, and gusty wind, an Elevated Risk of fire danger is in place in the Great Basin for the rest of Sunday into Monday morning, with a Critical Risk for portions of Nevada and Utah on Monday.
The Pacific Northwest and Northern California will have light rain as a front over the Pacific Northwest move slowly eastward to Great Basin/Northern High Plains by Tuesday evening.

We try to keep this up to date but if is not you can find the updated version here.

When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Or for the Day 2 Fire Outlook click here. For the Day 3 – 8 Fire Outlook click here.

Thunderstorm Risk

This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.

The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.

Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast

These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.

Temperature

A version that shows a 40 hour animation and some other views can be found here

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Day 3 – 7 Hazards

Valid Monday June 14 2021 – Friday June 18 2021
Hazards:
– Heavy rain across portions of the Southeast, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Southern Plains, Fri, Jun 18.
– Flooding possible across portions of the Southeast, the Southern Plains, and the Tennessee Valley.
– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Southeast, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Southern Plains, and the Tennessee Valley.
– Flooding likely across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Southern Plains, and the Northern Plains.
– Excessive heat across portions of California, the Central Great Basin, the Pacific Northwest, and the Northern Great Basin, Thu-Fri, Jun 17-Jun 18.
– Excessive heat across portions of the Central Great Basin, the Northern Rockies, the Central Rockies, California, the Northern Great Basin, and the Southwest, Mon-Fri, Jun 14-Jun 18.
– Excessive heat across portions of the Central Great Basin, California, and the Southwest, Wed-Fri, Jun 16-Jun 18.
– Excessive heat across portions of the Central Plains, the Central Great Basin, the Northern Plains, the Northern Rockies, the Central Rockies, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Northern Great Basin, and the Upper Mississippi Valley, Mon-Thu, Jun 14-Jun 17.
– Excessive heat across portions of the Northern Plains, the Northern Rockies, and the Northern Great Basin, Mon-Tue, Jun 14-Jun 15.
– Excessive heat across portions of the Northern Plains and the Northern Rockies, Mon-Wed, Jun 14-Jun 16.
– Excessive heat across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Northern Plains, Wed-Thu, Jun 16-Jun 17.
Detailed Summary:
The biggest weather story during the medium range forecast period (Monday, June 14 to Friday, June 18) will be associated with dangerous heat across much of the west and north-central United States. An impressive upper-level ridge/high pressure system coinciding with the mid-June sun angle and extremely dry soil will lead to potentially record-breaking heat. For the northern/central Plains and northern Rockies, high temperatures 15 to 30 degrees above average will be located across Montana and Wyoming between Monday and Tuesday, before shifting eastward into the Dakotas on Wednesday and reaching portions of the Upper Midwest on Thursday. This equates to widespread highs in the 90s and low triple digits from the central High Plains to the U.S.-Canada border. This level of heat over multiple days in these locations will make it particularly dangerous for individuals spending an extended amount of time outdoors, or those without access to air conditioning. Fortunately, a cold front is expected to swing through the northern Plains next week and offer much needed relief by Thursday and Friday.
Meanwhile, deadly heat is forecast to continue building over the Southwest and portions of the Intermountain West. An anomalously strong upper-level high located near the Four Corners region will eventually settle and slowly meander southwestward by the end of next week. Highs well into the triple digits will be found throughout the Southwest, with maximum temperatures into the 120s for the typical desert valleys. Places such as Las Vegas, NV and Phoenix, AZ will experience temperatures into the 110s nearly every day next week. Areas slightly to the north will also bake under excessive heat, while not as extreme as the Southwest. For example, Salt Lake City could see high temperatures reach 100 degrees every day between Monday and Friday, which would be a record for the month of June. The sizzling heat is expected to expand westward and into California and the rest of the central Great Basin by Wednesday and Thursday. Widespread triple digits and a high heat risk will be likely over this region. All in all much of the Southwest and western United States (outside the Pacific Northwest and immediate coastal regions along the West Coast) will experience dangerous, deadly, and potentially record-breaking heat next week. A few monthly and all-time record high temperatures are not out of the question. Residents are urged to drink plenty of water and spend less time outdoors. Additionally, much of the Southwest and central Great Basin is confronting extreme and exceptional drought. The upcoming heat wave and lack of precipitation will exacerbate water supply concerns.
Elsewhere, tropical trouble brewing in the Gulf of Mexico may pose a risk of heavy rain along the western and central Gulf Coast States by Friday, June 18. Current ensemble guidance highlights an area between Houston, TX and Mobile, AL as having the greatest chances of receiving tropical downpours and widespread rainfall amounts over an inch. As the time period draws closer and confidence increases, the heavy rain area depicted on the hazards chart will likely shrink. Many different solutions exist regarding the strength of a potential tropical cyclone by the end of next week, thus it will be important to check the latest medium range forecasts when available, as well as the National Hurricane Center.
No widespread hazardous weather is expected for Alaska during this time frame.

(This is updated only during the week) Note the first list is weather highlights, this list is hazards. Not sure there is that much of a difference but they come from two different parts of NOAA. The Day 3 – 7 Hazards List does not update on weekends. But it is still useful as it remains valid for the period of time it covers. Of course, all forecasts are subject to change. Later we show a map of the hazards. Perhaps we should show them together.

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.

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Ski Snow Reports

We will resume snow coverage in the Fall

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Drought Coverage

We include drought information in this section.

More information can be found here.

June Drought Outlook.

Definitely a rotation but is it just for one month?

Seasonal Outlook Issued May 20, 2021

Here is the short version of the discussion that was released with the new forecast.

Latest Seasonal Assessment – Drought improved across parts of Texas, northeastern Colorado, central Wyoming and the Northeast in the past month due to heavy rainfall, while drought developed or intensified in many parts of California, the Pacific Northwest, Northern Intermountain West, Northern Rockies, and the Carolinas due to increasing precipitation deficits. Drought persistence or development is favored for most of the West and High Plains, based on elevated probabilities of below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures for June-July-August. Drought removal or improvement is expected across east-central Texas along with most of Oklahoma due to heavy recent rainfall and additional heavy rainfall forecast for the rest of May.Lack of a rainfall signal from monthly and seasonal precipitation outlooks supports drought persistence across the Midwest. The Great Plains and Corn Belt will be closely monitored in the monthly drought outlooks through the summer. The wet monthly and seasonal outlooks along with the onset of the convective season strongly support removal across the small drought areas in southern Florida. The persistence forecast for the Northeast is based on a weak rainfall signal and likelihood of above normal temperatures during June-July-August along with a favorable time for soil moisture discharge.
Alaska is forecast to remain drought-free through the end of August. Drought is favored to persist across Puerto Rico during the next few months. Drought development and persistence is forecast across the leeward sides of the Hawaiian Islands.

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Tropical Events

Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico

The Eastern Pacific

The Central Pacific

Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.

And the Western Pacific

Weekly Tropical Forecast

This graphic updates on Tuesdays

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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).

First Temperature

And then Precipitation

For those interested in more detail, there are additional weather maps and information in the MORE WEATHER Addendum. The link to the Addendum is here.

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Mesoscale Events

The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.

Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.

This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.

For the Day 2 Outlook click here. For Day 3, click here. For Days 4 – 8 click here. An explanation of the risk codes used can be found here.

There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Or for the Day 2 Fire Outlook click here. For the Day 3 – 8 Fire Outlook click here.

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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps

The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

In and of itself Atmospheric Rivers are not a definitive predictor of extreme weather but it shows where concentrated “rivers” of moist air are forecast to be impacting North America and that is part of the equation for severe weather.

This view provides a better view of the Northeast, the Antilles and also Europe.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

The above is the day by day projected pattern of highs and lows for Day 3 through 7. Earlier we show the pattern for Days 1 and 2.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5

This represents five days of precipitation rather than three days as shown in the earlier graphic.

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

The areas that have cumulative seven-day precipitation increase. You can see where QPF is accumulating.

Looking ahead to next week.

Usually, nothing shows in this graphic for the following week as it is usually too far out to be forecasting severe weather. But this experimental graphic auto-updates. And further information is available here.

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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings

Current watches, warnings, and advisories issued by the agencies of the National Weather Service. Hazards should show up in the various maps but the below links will take you to all outstanding watches and warnings in each category which may include some categories not covered in the various maps or difficult to find. So if there is a category of interest, click on the appropriate link below.

Winter Storm Warning
High Wind Warning
Storm Warning
Avalanche Warning
Coastal Flood Warning
Flood Warning
High Surf Warning
Flash Flood Watch
Gale Warning
Winter Weather Advisory
Flood Advisory
Coastal Flood Advisory
High Surf Advisory
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning
Dense Fog Advisory
Small Craft Advisory For Hazardous Seas
Small Craft Advisory For Rough Bar
Small Craft Advisory
Brisk Wind Advisory
Hazardous Seas Warning
Lake Wind Advisory
Wind Advisory
Rip Current Statement
Gale Watch
Winter Storm Watch
Flood Watch
High Wind Watch
Special Weather Statement
Air Quality Alert
Hydrologic Outlook

Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.

Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Convective Outlooks
Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook

This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook

This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook

This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook

The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook

Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook

This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook

This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook