Written by Sig Silber
HEADLINES (Updated 5:52 PM EDT) –
– Record heat spreading from the western U.S. into the northern Plains and upper Midwest
– Severe weather and scattered flash flooding possible into this evening across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic
– Thunderstorms and heavy rain expected to shift from southern Texas toward the Louisiana coast during the next couple of days
This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.
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For those interested in longer-term forecasts, we just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and it can be accessed here.
Readers can scan through this article or jump to where they want to go via the links to the right. To get back to the Directory, hit the back arrow at the top of the URL bar on your screen. But in many cases, one of my Editors has graciously inserted a Return to Directory link to click so that is even easier. This is so high tech that I hardly believe it. |
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CONUS Focal Points
Short Range Focal Points
Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 430 PM EDT Thu Jun 03 2021
Valid 00Z Fri Jun 04 2021 – 00Z Sun Jun 06 2021
…Record heat spreading from the western U.S. into the northern Plains and upper Midwest…
…Severe weather and scattered flash flooding possible into this evening across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic…
…Thunderstorms and heavy rain expected to shift from southern Texas toward the Louisiana coast during the next couple of days…
A strong upper-level ridge of high pressure over the interior western U.S. responsible for the record-breaking heat from the Great Basin to the Intermountain West today will gradually give way to an upper-level trough moving into the Pacific Northwest.
The record heat will then shift northeastward into the northern Plains towards the upper Midwest on Friday behind a warm front, where widespread high temperatures in the upper-90s to near the century mark are in the forecast. Temperatures this hot can increase the potential for heat-related illnesses. As such, Heat Advisories are in effect from eastern Washington to portions of Montana. Parts of the Great Basin into California and the Desert Southwest are under Excessive Heat Warnings. Much of this region is also in the middle of extreme or exceptional drought conditions, which will also promote the danger of wildfires in portions of these areas.
A cold front entering the Pacific Northwest today will filter in much cooler temperatures during the next couple of days for sections of Washington, Oregon, and Idaho. This frontal boundary could also trigger scattered thunderstorms from the northern Rockies to the northern High Plains on Friday.
For the eastern and south-central United States, an increasingly warm and humid airmass will promote scattered showers and thunderstorms from the Northeast to the western Gulf Coast. High pressure located in the western Atlantic will continue to bring southerly winds and ample moisture up the eastern third of the country, with a weak cold front located across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys to help spark thunderstorm activity. A few severe thunderstorms are possible into this evening across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, with damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes possible. In addition, WPC has highlighted the Mid-Atlantic for a slight potential for flash flooding due to scattered heavy rain.
Further south, linger precipitation will also be found across portions of Louisiana and southern Texas. This section of the country has experienced a plethora of rainfall over the last month, which has made ground conditions susceptible for flash flooding. Due to this concern and the potential for an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain today across southern Texas, WPC has issued Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall for the region. Rain chances will continue into the early part of the weekend as well, thanks to a slow-moving upper level low located over the Lone Star State, with a tendency to shift the heavy rain toward the Louisiana coast by Saturday.
We try to keep this up to date but if is not you can find the updated version here.
When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.
Thunderstorm Risk
This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation
Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.
The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.
Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.
Day One CONUS Forecast | Day Two CONUS Forecast |
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These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be | |
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During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.
Temperature
A version that shows a 40 hour animation and some other views can be found here
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Day 3 – 7 Hazards
Valid Sunday June 06 2021 – Thursday June 10 2021
Hazards:
– Heavy rain across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Southern Plains, Sun-Tue, Jun 6-Jun 8.
– Flooding possible across portions of the Southern Plains.
– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Southern Plains, the Northern Rockies, and the Northern Great Basin.
– Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Great Lakes, the Great Basin, and the Upper Mississippi Valley, Basin, Sun-Tue, Jun 6-Jun 8.
– Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Northern/Central Plains, the Central Great Basin, the Northern/Central Rockies, the Northern Great Basin, and the Upper Mississippi Valley,
Sun-Thu, Jun 6-Jun 10.– Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Great Lakes, the Mid-Atlantic, the Northeast, and the Central Appalachians, Sun-Wed, Jun 6-Jun 9.
Detailed Summary:
A weak upper-level low over Texas and a weak front extend across the Central/Western Gulf Coast through Wednesday in the medium-range forecast period. The circulation around the upper-level low will pull moisture northward off the Gulf of Mexico. The energy will produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains and the Lower Mississippi Valley.
The rain will be heavy enough to depict an area of heavy rain on the Hazards Chart from Sunday into Tuesday. The heavy rain will have the greatest areal coverage on Sunday over Southeastern Texas and Louisiana. The heavy rain will move into northeastern Texas and parts of Arkansas on Monday, with a much smaller area over eastern Texas on Tuesday. Moisture will continue to stream northward over the Plains/Mississippi Valley and the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. With the lack of a definable boundary over the area, it will be hard to pinpoint where the heavy rain will be on Wednesday and Thursday. The models are also very uncertain where the heavy rain will be, too.
An upper-level ridge will extend over parts of the western part of the country to the Northeast. The upper-level ridging will last the longest over the parts of the Rockies and Plains into parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley through Thursday. The upper-level ridging will aid in producing above normal temperatures over the region. Much above normal temperatures will be over parts of the Great Basin from Sunday through Tuesday when upper-level troughing will move over the area.
Over the Northeast, the much above normal temperatures will last from Sunday into Tuesday. On Tuesday, weak upper-level troughing will move over the Northeast.
The Central/Northern Rockies area into the Northern Plains will have much above normal temperatures, the longest from Sunday into Thursday.
Meanwhile, a tight pressure gradient offshore from Northern/Central California will produce strong wind offshore from Sunday into Tuesday. The wind speed will not meet the criteria for an area of high wind. However, boaters are encouraged to check with the local forecast office for any marine advisories.
For Alaska, low pressure over the Bering Sea on Sunday will steam moisture into parts of the adjacent mainland. The rain will not be heavy enough for an area of heavy rain to be depicted on the Hazards Chart. Furthermore, an area of low pressure will develop over the Gulf of Alaska on Tuesday into Wednesday. The models are uncertain about the location and timing of heavy rain over parts of the Kenai Peninsula and adjacent regions. Therefore, an area of heavy rain was not placed over the region on Tuesday and Wednesday. It will be likely that some heavy rain will develop over the region, but the location and timing are uncertain at this point in time.
(This is updated only during the week) Note the first list is weather highlights, this list is hazards. Not sure there is that much of a difference but they come from two different parts of NOAA. The Day 3 – 7 Hazards List does not update on weekends. But it is still useful as it remains valid for the period of time it covers. Of course, all forecasts are subject to change. Later we show a map of the hazards. Perhaps we should show them together. |
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.
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Ski Snow Reports
New Feature – Ski Reports. (We may be a tad premature but not by much). It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every GEI Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.
We will update the above map (or maps) weekly (or more often when the situation is changing rapidly) but more frequent updates can be obtained here.
Snow Forecasts.
Day 1
Day 2
Additional snow information can be found here and here.
We also include drought information in this section.
More information can be found here.
June Drought Outlook.
Seasonal Outlook Issued May 20, 2021
Here is the short version of the discussion that was released with the new forecast.
Latest Seasonal Assessment – Drought improved across parts of Texas, northeastern Colorado, central Wyoming and the Northeast in the past month due to heavy rainfall, while drought developed or intensified in many parts of California, the Pacific Northwest, Northern Intermountain West, Northern Rockies, and the Carolinas due to increasing precipitation deficits. Drought persistence or development is favored for most of the West and High Plains, based on elevated probabilities of below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures for June-July-August. Drought removal or improvement is expected across east-central Texas along with most of Oklahoma due to heavy recent rainfall and additional heavy rainfall forecast for the rest of May.Lack of a rainfall signal from monthly and seasonal precipitation outlooks supports drought persistence across the Midwest. The Great Plains and Corn Belt will be closely monitored in the monthly drought outlooks through the summer. The wet monthly and seasonal outlooks along with the onset of the convective season strongly support removal across the small drought areas in southern Florida. The persistence forecast for the Northeast is based on a weak rainfall signal and likelihood of above normal temperatures during June-July-August along with a favorable time for soil moisture discharge.
Alaska is forecast to remain drought-free through the end of August. Drought is favored to persist across Puerto Rico during the next few months. Drought development and persistence is forecast across the leeward sides of the Hawaiian Islands.
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Tropical Events
I am replacing the large with three small maps but you can click on them to get larger versions. Even though they are small maps you should be able to tell if there is activity and If I see activity I will make the map where there is activity full size and when available add other related maps. Sorry for any confusion but the NHC maps do not update during the Winter except if there is activity. We leave them in simply because if there is a storm NOAA will start to update the relevant map even though it is not normally updated during the off season. The maps are a bit small but if you click the map you can see the date and time when it was updated.
| the Central Pacific. | the Eastern Pacific | the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico |
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Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico
NA
The Eastern Pacific
The Central Pacific
NA
Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.
And the Western Pacific
Weekly Tropical Forecast
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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast
And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).
First Temperature
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And then Precipitation
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For those interested in more detail, there are additional weather maps and information in the MORE WEATHER Addendum. The link to the Addendum is here. |
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Mesoscale Events
The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.
Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.
This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.
There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.
The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.
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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps
The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.
The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.
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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report
This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.
500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View
The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.
| Day 3 Above, 6 Below | Day 4 Above,7 Below | Day 5 Above. |
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Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3
Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5
Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7
Looking ahead to next week.
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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings
| Current watches, warnings, and advisories issued by the agencies of the National Weather Service. Hazards should show up in the various maps but the below links will take you to all outstanding watches and warnings in each category which may include some categories not covered in the various maps or difficult to find. So if there is a category of interest, click on the appropriate link below. |
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Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.
Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.
| Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event. | These maps are updated as risks are identified. |
| This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page. |  |
| Convective Outlooks | |
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| This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online. | Today’s Outlook |
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| This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. | Tomorrow’s Outlook |
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| This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. | Day 3 Outlook |
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| This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point). | Day 4-8 Outlook |
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| The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent. | Thunderstorm Outlook |
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| Fire Weather Outlooks | |
| This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product. | Today’s Outlook |
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| This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product. | Tomorrow’s Outlook |
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| This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product. | Day 3-8 Outlook |
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