Written by Sig Silber

HEADLINES (Updated 6:06 PM EDT) –

– Lingering showers and thunderstorms expected across the Mid Atlantic and Southeast this evening as a cold front continues to push through the region

– Unsettled weather enters the Pacific Northwest and Northern Great Basin on Thursday

– Unseasonably warm temperatures continue in the West as cooler temperatures spread through the East

This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.

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For those interested in longer-term forecasts, we just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and it can be accessed here.

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CONUS Focal Points

Short Range Focal Points

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 408 PM EDT Wed May 05 2021

Valid 00Z Thu May 06 2021 – 00Z Sat May 08 2021

…Lingering showers and thunderstorms expected across the Mid Atlantic and Southeast this evening as a cold front continues to push through the region…

…Unsettled weather enters the Pacific Northwest and Northern Great Basin on Thursday…

…Unseasonably warm temperatures continue in the West as cooler temperatures spread through the East…

After an active stretch of weather in the central and eastern U.S., relatively quieter conditions are expected across much of the Lower 48 through for the latter half of the week.

As an area of low pressure tracks northeast along the coast, rain is expected to continue into the evening hours across the Northeast. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the low’s trailing cold front at pushes east across the Mid-Atlantic, while sagging south from the Southeast and Gulf coasts this evening. Some of the storms developing over the Mid Atlantic region may become strong to severe, producing strong, gusty winds.

On Thursday, shower and storms are forecast to continue across the Florida Peninsula as the front drops slowly south across the region. Some of these storms may become strong to severe as well, producing hail and strong, gusty winds. Behind the front, seasonable to below-normal temperatures will spread across much of the eastern U.S. on Thursday, with average to below average temperature continuing through Friday.

Father west, a weak upper disturbance is expected to support shower and thunderstorm development over the central and southern High Plains through this evening. There is an isolated threat for severe wind gusts and large hail with these storms. Then on Thursday, a system moving east across the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley is expected to produce showers and thunderstorms across the region, with some potential for strong, gusty winds and large hail along its advancing cold front.

In the West, a well-defined cold front is forecast to move into the Northwest on Thursday. Widespread precipitation, including some high-elevation mixed precipitation, is expected as the system pushes across the Northwest into the northern Rockies late Thursday and Friday. Ahead of the front, above normal temperatures are forecast to continue across much of the West through Thursday. Much cooler temperature will spread across the Northwest on Friday, as above normal temperatures continue across much of the Great Basin and Southwest, while spreading east from the Rockies into the High Plains.

We try to keep this up to date but if is not you can find the updated version here.

When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Thunderstorm Risk

This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.

The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.

Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.

Temperature

A version that shows a 40 hour animation and some other views can be found here

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Day 3 – 7 Hazards

Valid Saturday May 08 2021 – Wednesday May 12 2021

Hazards:

– Heavy rain across portions of the Central/Southern Plains, the Great Lakes, the Middle Mississippi Valley, and the Ohio Valley, Sat, May 8.

– Heavy rain across portions of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, the Central/Southern Appalachians, the Tennessee Valley, the Southern Plains, and the Ohio Valley, Sun, May 9.

– Heavy rain across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Southern Plains, Tue, May 11.

– Severe weather across portions of the Central/Southern Plains, and the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, Sat, May 8.

– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Southern Plains.

– High winds across portions of California, Sat-Mon, May 8-May 10.

Detailed Summary:

In the medium-range forecast period, an area of strong high pressure over the Eastern Pacific (off the West Coast of the CONUS) and a thermal trough developing over California will create a strong pressure gradient over California and along as well offshore from California Coast. With high pressure being semi-permanent, the area of high wind will continue from Friday to Monday.

Meanwhile, a developing area of low pressure over the Central High Plains, on Saturday, will move eastward to the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday, pulling a front across the Southern Plains. On Monday, the low will move off the Northeast Coast with a trailing front from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southern Plains. The front will then become quasi-stationary, extending from the Southeast to the Southern Plains on Tuesday. Then on Wednesday, a wave of low pressure over the Southern High Plains will move northeastward to the Tennessee Valley.

Back to Saturday, the SPC has issued an outlook for severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley. The air will become unstable in the warm sector, producing conditions that will allow for the development of severe thunderstorms. Also, an area of heavy rain will develop along the warm front over parts of the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley eastward to parts of the Ohio Valleys on Saturday.

As the system moves eastward with the front, on Sunday, an area of heavy rain will develop along the front from parts of the Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians to the Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys. There will be a break from the heavy rain on Monday. More moisture from the Western Gulf of Mexico will overrun the boundary over parts of the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday.

However, with the wave moving out of the Plains on Wednesday, the models have an uncertainty of where to locate the area of heavy rain. The GFS has a large area of heavy rain over eastern Texas and northwestern Louisiana, while the ECMWF has heavy rain over the Southeast. The MMEQPFC5KM has a broader area of heavy rain from the parts of the Southern Plains to The Southern Appalachians.

For Alaska, an area of low pressure will move along the Aleutians on Saturday, followed by another area of low pressure moving south of the Aleutians on Monday. The parade of lows will continue near the Aleutians through Wednesday. The systems will produce mostly rain, but the amounts do not come close to the criteria for heavy precipitation from Saturday to Wednesday. The areas of low pressures have a pressure gradient associated with them. At this point in time, the wind associated with the lows over the state will be below the criteria for high wind.

(This is updated only during the week) Note the first list is weather highlights, this list is hazards. Not sure there is that much of a difference but they come from two different parts of NOAA. The Day 3 – 7 Hazards List does not update on weekends. But it is still useful as it remains valid for the period of time it covers. Of course, all forecasts are subject to change. Later we show a map of the hazards. Perhaps we should show them together.

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.

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Ski Snow Reports

New Feature – Ski Reports. (We may be a tad premature but not by much). It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every GEI Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.

We will update the above map (or maps) weekly (or more often when the situation is changing rapidly) but more frequent updates can be obtained here.

Snow Forecasts.

Day 1

Day 2

Additional snow information can be found here and here.

We also include drought information in this section.

More information can be found here.

May Drought Outlook.

Seasonal Outlook Issued April 15, 2021

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Tropical Events

I am replacing the large with three small maps but you can click on them to get larger versions. Even though they are small maps you should be able to tell if there is activity and If I see activity I will make the map where there is activity full size and when available add other related maps. Sorry for any confusion but the NHC maps do not update during the Winter except if there is activity. We leave them in simply because if there is a storm NOAA will start to update the relevant map even though it is not normally updated during the off season. The maps are a bit small but if you click the map you can see the date and time when it was updated.

the Central Pacific.	the Eastern Pacific	the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico

Nothing to report

The Eastern Pacific

NA

The Central Pacific

NA

Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.

And the Western Pacific

Weekly Tropical Forecast

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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).

First Temperature

And then Precipitation

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Mesoscale Events

The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.

Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.

This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.

There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps

The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

Now we look at the forecast for the Maximum Temperature three days out.

Looking ahead to next week.

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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings

Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.

Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
Convective Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook
The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook
Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook

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