Written by Sig Silber

HEADLINES (Updated 8:32 PM EDT) to update the Drought Monitor information-

– Heavy rain/flooding and severe thunderstorms are expected for the south-central to southeastern U.S. Friday and Saturday

– Snow is likely in the Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains, with another round in the Northwest by Friday night

– Elevated to Critical Risks of fire weather remain in place for the Southwest to Southern High Plains

This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.

Please share this article – Go to the very top of the page, right-hand side for social media buttons. Also, feel free to send this email to anyone you feel will benefit from it.

For those interested in longer-term forecasts, we just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and it can be accessed here.

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CONUS Focal Points

Short Range Focal Points

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 414 PM EDT Thu Apr 08 2021

Valid 00Z Fri Apr 09 2021 – 00Z Sun Apr 11 2021

…Heavy rain/flooding and severe thunderstorms are expected for the south-central to southeastern U.S. Friday and Saturday…

…Snow is likely in the Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains Friday, with another round in the Northwest by Friday night…

…Elevated to Critical Risks of fire weather remain in place for the Southwest to Southern High Plains…

A surface low pressure system is forecast to continue to move slowly to the northeast through the Upper Midwest over the next couple of days, with rain and some thunderstorms likely for the Upper Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes region, and Ohio Valley. The Storm Prediction Center has delineated a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms through tonight for portions of the Ohio Valley for the threat of high winds. Showers and possibly thunderstorms are also forecast along a stationary boundary extending southeast through the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas as well. However, the more impactful rain and thunderstorms are likely to be farther south across the Southern Plains and Southeastern U.S., as two frontal systems meander in the area and Gulf of Mexico moisture increases Friday and Saturday.

On Friday and Friday night, an Enhanced Risk of severe weather is outlined for the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley for tornado, wind, and hail threats. The severe weather threat will shift further into the Southeast ahead of a cold front that will push eastward during the day Saturday, where a Slight Risk of severe weather is highlighted. Heavy rainfall is also likely along a stationary front extending into the Lower Mississippi Valley and ahead of the cold front, with a Slight Risk of flooding during the day and overnight Friday.

In the northwestern U.S., precipitation is forecast along with cooler than normal temperatures as a cold front continues to the southeast through the Central Rockies and eastward into the northern Plains. Some snow accumulations are possible Friday, particularly for portions of southwestern Montana and the Black Hills. Then, precipitation chances increase again late Friday into Saturday for the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies as another cold front comes through, with over a half foot of snow possible for the northern Cascade Mountains.

In the Southwest and High Plains, warm temperatures are forecast along with gusty winds and low relative humidity values, and this combination will lead to the potential for continued dangerous fire weather conditions. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined an Elevated Risk of fire danger in and around New Mexico through tonight. On Friday, there is a Critical Risk outlined for southwestern Texas, with an Elevated Risk again outlined for portions of New Mexico and west Texas. There are also widespread Red Flag Warnings in effect for portions of the Four Corners states, the Central and Northern High Plains, and Oklahoma.

In general, most of the contiguous U.S. should see above normal temperatures over the next few days, with the exceptions being the Northwest as well as northern/central portions of the Plains behind the cold front pushing east Friday and Saturday. High temperatures will be particularly warm for portions of the eastern Great Lakes region and interior Northeast Friday and Saturday, with highs up to 20 degrees above normal. The Desert Southwest and southern Texas will experience temperatures in the 90s and nearing 100 degrees over the next few days.

We try to keep this up to date but if is not you can find the updated version here.

When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Thunderstorm Risk

This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.

The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.

Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.

Temperature

A version that shows a 40 hour animation and some other views can be found here

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Day 3 – 7 Hazards

Valid Sunday April 11 2021 – Thursday April 15 2021

Hazards:

– Heavy rain across portions of the Southeast, and the Lower Mississippi Valley, Tue-Thu, Apr 13-Apr 15.

– Heavy rain across portions of central Florida, Sun, Apr 11.

– Heavy snow across portions of the Central Rockies, Tue-Wed, Apr 13-Apr 14.

– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

– Flooding likely across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley.

– Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Sun-Wed, Apr 11-Apr 14.

– Much below normal temperatures across portions of mainland Alaska, Sun, Apr 11.

Detailed Summary:

The weather across the lower 48 during the medium range period (Sunday, April 11 – Thursday, April 15) will be predominantly influenced by a series of Pacific systems advancing across the north-central states and reinforcing broad troughing from the Great Lakes to the Western U.S.. On Sunday, a strong low pressure system will be advancing across the Eastern states with a broad area of showers and thunderstorms likely from the Southeast to New England. The best chance for heavy rainfall potential looks to be along the trailing cold front as it shifts southward across Florida. The heavy rain area across parts of the central Peninsula and western coast was maintained.

The next cold front enters the East by next Tuesday, though most of the precipitation associated with this system should focus along a stationary boundary draped across the Gulf Coast region. Another round of heavy rainfall is possible across parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley and Central Gulf Coast states next Tuesday-Thursday as Gulf Moisture overruns the boundary. Exact rainfall amounts, and whether they technically reach criteria of 1″ in 24-hours, remains uncertain, but decided an area was warranted given much above normal rainfall the past couple of weeks and the likelihood additional precipitation could enhance flooding concerns.

To the north, strong Canadian High pressure sinking southward into the Plains along with another upper low entering the Western U.S., could favor an upslope precipitation event Tuesday into Wednesday across parts of the central Rockies. There remains some uncertainty in the pattern, but recent guidance seems to be trending towards heavy snowfall potential, with WPC probabilities of greater than a quarter inch liquid equivalent up to 50-70 percent. For this reason, a small heavy snowfall area was introduced today across the southern WY and northern/central CO Rockies. This same system may favor gusty winds across parts of the Southwest Tuesday into Wednesday, but criteria meeting wind speeds/gusts did not seem widespread enough for an area on the hazards chart today. Still, the potential for high winds across this region will need to be monitored and an area may need to be introduced should incoming model guidance support it.

Over Alaska, arctic air entrenched over much of the mainland will maintain much below normal temperatures through the weekend, with moderation back towards normal expected by early next week. Several low pressure systems in/near the Gulf will also bring the potential for heavy precipitation to parts of the southern Coast region and Panhandle. Heavy snow is likely in higher elevations, with rain along the coast.

(This is updated only during the week) Note the first list is weather highlights, this list is hazards. Not sure there is that much of a difference but they come from two different parts of NOAA. The Day 3 – 7 Hazards List does not update on weekends. But it is still useful as it remains valid for the period of time it covers. Of course, all forecasts are subject to change. Later we show a map of the hazards. Perhaps we should show them together.

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.

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Ski Snow Reports

New Feature – Ski Reports. (We may be a tad premature but not by much). It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every GEI Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.

We will update the above map (or maps) weekly (or more often when the situation is changing rapidly) but more frequent updates can be obtained here.

Snow Forecasts.

Day 1

Day 2

Additional snow information can be found here and here.

We also include drought information in this section.

More information can be found here.

April Drought Outlook..

Seasonal Outlook Issued February 18, 2021

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Tropical Events

I am replacing the large with three small maps but you can click on them to get larger versions. Even though they are small maps you should be able to tell if there is activity and If I see activity I will make the map where there is activity full size and when available add other related maps. Sorry for any confusion but the NHC maps do not update during the Winter except if there is activity. We leave them in simply because if there is a storm NOAA will start to update the relevant map even though it is not normally updated during the off season. The maps are a bit small but if you click the map you can see the date and time when it was updated.

the Central Pacific.	the Eastern Pacific	the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico

The Central Pacific

Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.

And the Western Pacific

Weekly Tropical Forecast

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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).

First Temperature

And then Precipitation

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Mesoscale Events

The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.

Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.

This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.

There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps

The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

Now we look at the forecast for the Maximum Temperature three days out.

Looking ahead to next week.

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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings

Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.

Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
Convective Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook
The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook
Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook

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