Written by Sig Silber

HEADLINES (Updated 4:22 PM EDT) –

– Much warmer than normal temperatures in the western and central U.S. will support Elevated Risks of fire weather

– Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Midwest, the Plains, and Ohio Valley overnight Monday into Tuesday

– Latest drought forecast included

This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.

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For those interested in longer-term forecasts, we just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and it can be accessed here.

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CONUS Focal Points

Short Range Focal Points

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 353 PM EDT Sun Apr 04 2021

Valid 00Z Mon Apr 05 2021 – 00Z Wed Apr 07 2021

…Much warmer than average temperatures in the western and central U.S. will support Elevated Risks of fire weather…

…Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Midwest, the Plains, and Ohio Valley overnight Monday into Tuesday…

The Southwestern to Upper Midwest will experience temperatures 15 to 25 degrees above average as a broad upper-level ridge takes shape through Tuesday evening. The Desert Southwest should see temperatures in the upper 90s and nearing 100 degrees, while 80s are forecast for Northern Plains and the Central/Southern High Plains. Additionally, several daily high-temperature records could be set. These warm temperatures combined with dry soils, low relative humidity, and gusty winds will lead to the potential for fire weather. Per the SPC, Fire Weather Outlook indicates an Elevated Risk across parts of Montana and Central High Plains. On Monday, the risk will be Critical over portions of Nevada into the Four Corners region. Meanwhile, parts of Southern New England and northern Mid-Atlantic will have an Elevated Risk.

In the meantime, a front extending from the Northern High Plains southwestward to the northern California coast will slowly move eastward to the Northern/Central Plains roughly southwestward to the Southwest U. S. by Tuesday evening. The associated upper-level trough will help produce higher elevation snow and rain over parts of the Northwest into the Northern Intermountain Region. Overnight Sunday, snow will develop over parts of the Northern Rockies that will slowly move southeastward into parts of the Central Rockies later Tuesday morning. The snow will continue over the Central Rockies and trickle into parts of the Central High Plains Tuesday afternoon.

Furthermore, moisture pooling over the Plains will help produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Central Plains into parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley overnight Sunday. Rain and showers/thunderstorms will move into parts of the Upper Great Lakes by Monday morning and into parts of the Ohio Valley by Monday evening. Overnight Monday, as the associated front moves southward, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and expand into parts of the Central/Southern Plains on Tuesday into Tuesday evening. The SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over this area on Tuesday. Furthermore, Rain will move into parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and into parts of the Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday evening.

Elsewhere, rain and snow will develop from wrap-around moisture from a slow-moving surface low in the Atlantic off Maine’s coast.

We try to keep this up to date but if is not you can find the updated version here.

When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Thunderstorm Risk

This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.

The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.

Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.

Temperature

A version that shows a 40 hour animation and some other views can be found here

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Day 3 – 7 Hazards

Valid Monday April 05 2021 – Friday April 09 2021

Hazards:

– Heavy snow across portions of the Northern Rockies and the Northern Great Basin, Mon, Apr 5.

– Heavy rain across portions of the Upper Midwest, the Middle Mississippi Valley, and the Northern Plains, Wed-Thu, Apr 7-Apr 8.

– Heavy rain across portions of the Tennessee Valley, the Southern Appalachians, the Southeast, and the Ohio Valley, Thu, Apr 8.

– Heavy rain across portions of the Southeast, Fri, Apr 9.

– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and the Ohio Valley.

– Much above normal temperatures across portions of California and the Southwest, Mon, Apr 5 and Thu, Apr 8.

– Much above normal temperatures across portions of Southern Texas, Wed-Fri, Apr 7-Apr 9.

– Much below normal temperatures across portions of mainland Alaska, Tue-Fri, Apr 6-Apr 9.

Detailed Summary:

During the medium range period (Monday, April 5th – Friday, April 9th), ridging aloft on Monday will keep the weather relatively quiet precipitation-wise while simultaneously opening the door for temperatures to soar well above normal for a significant portion of the CONUS. From the Desert Southwest to the Upper Midwest temperature departures ranging from 15 to 25 degrees above average are expected Monday, potentially breaking a handful of daily high temperature records. Though the greatest temperature anomalies are forecast for the Central and Northern Great Plains they are not anticipated to be hazardous, as highs will only reach into the 70s and 80s. Conversely, in the Desert Southwest highs are expected to reach the high 90s and may hit triple digits in some areas. High temperatures will begin to moderate over the southwest and north-central CONUS on Tuesday as the upper-level ridge progresses eastward, giving the South and East their own taste of warm weather for a few days, though abnormally high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s will return to the Desert Southwest briefly on Thursday. Beginning on Wednesday, unaffected by a cold front passing to the north and aided by warm air advection via southerly flow, southern Texas is forecast to get its own bout of hot weather as highs consistently reach the upper 90s through Friday. Residents of southwestern Arizona, southeastern California, and southern Texas should exercise caution when outside to prevent dehydration and heat stroke.

With the arrival of an upper-level cut-off low over the Pacific Northwest comes the return of wet weather over the lower 48 after a short reprieve. To the south and east of this low an extended frontal boundary is expected to pass through the West and Northern Tier, bringing with it a mix of light to moderate rain. High elevation snow will also be likely and may become heavy at times, particularly over the Northern Great Basin and Northern Rockies late Monday into Tuesday. As a portion of this frontal boundary breaks off into a singular, mature low pressure system on Wednesday it will begin ingesting air with a higher moisture content, increasing rain rates over the Plains and the Upper Midwest. In stark contrast to yesterday’s guidance the models have begun to agree on the storm track as well as an area where the highest rainfall totals will likely occur in that region, which is outlined by the heavy rain contour. Ushered to the south and east by the cut-off upper-level low, this system is anticipated to continue producing moderate to heavy rain along its path, with the current guidance indicating the heaviest totals may fall in the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys on Thursday and in portions of the Southeast on Friday. Though more heavy rain areas have been drawn today, it is worth noting that there is still a sizable degree of uncertainty between the models regarding the evolution of this system. As such, these areas should not be considered absolutes for where the heaviest rain will occur and are subject to change over the coming days as predictability increases and the guidance comes into better focus. Elsewhere, a pair of cold fronts moving onshore into the Pacific Northwest and through northern California Thursday and Friday will likely bring moderate rain to low lying coastal areas, high elevation snow to the Cascades, and mixed precipitation to the Sierra Nevada.

In Alaska, a stationary front is forecast to settle along the southern coast of the mainland Monday into Tuesday. Forcing produced by this boundary working in tandem with shortwave energy is expected to bring moderate to heavy, though non-hazardous, mixed precipitation to the northern half of the Panhandle Monday into Tuesday. Afterwards, high pressure at the surface is anticipated to build to the north and west of the state, driving cold, arctic air into the Interior as well as portions of the Southwest and Far North, causing temperatures to plummet 20 to 35 degrees below normal. With lows sitting around or well below zero, residents are urged to take caution when outside, keeping skin covered to prevent frostbite and dressing warm to stave off hypothermia.

(This is updated only during the week) Note the first list is weather highlights, this list is hazards. Not sure there is that much of a difference but they come from two different parts of NOAA. The Day 3 – 7 Hazards List does not update on weekends. But it is still useful as it remains valid for the period of time it covers. Of course, all forecasts are subject to change. Later we show a map of the hazards. Perhaps we should show them together.

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.

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Ski Snow Reports

New Feature – Ski Reports. (We may be a tad premature but not by much). It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every GEI Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.

We will update the above map (or maps) weekly (or more often when the situation is changing rapidly) but more frequent updates can be obtained here.

Snow Forecasts.

Day 1

Day 2

Additional snow information can be found here and here.

We also include drought information in this section.

More information can be found here.

April Drought Outlook..

Seasonal Outlook Issued February 18, 2021

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Tropical Events

I am replacing the large with three small maps but you can click on them to get larger versions. Even though they are small maps you should be able to tell if there is activity and If I see activity I will make the map where there is activity full size and when available add other related maps. Sorry for any confusion but the NHC maps do not update during the Winter except if there is activity. We leave them in simply because if there is a storm NOAA will start to update the relevant map even though it is not normally updated during the off season. The maps are a bit small but if you click the map you can see the date and time when it was updated.

the Central Pacific.	the Eastern Pacific	the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico

The Central Pacific

Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.

And the Western Pacific

Weekly Tropical Forecast

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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).

First Temperature

And then Precipitation

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Mesoscale Events

The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.

Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.

This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.

There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps

The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

Now we look at the forecast for the Maximum Temperature three days out.

Looking ahead to next week.

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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings

Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.

Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
Convective Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook
The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook
Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook

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