Written by Sig Silber

HEADLINES (Updated 5:56 PM EDT) –

– High winds and widespread fire danger are expected to continue this evening across much of the central CONUS

– Moderate to heavy rain will once again affect the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys beginning Tuesday

This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.

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For those interested in longer-term forecasts, we just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and it can be accessed here.

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CONUS Focal Points

Short Range Focal Points

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 359 PM EDT Mon Mar 29 2021

Valid 00Z Tue Mar 30 2021 – 00Z Thu Apr 01 2021

…High winds and widespread fire danger are expected to continue this evening across much of the central CONUS…

…Moderate to heavy rain will once again affect the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys beginning Tuesday…

A low pressure system and a potent cold front sweeping across the central and eastern U.S. over the next couple of days will cause a myriad of weather hazards both ahead of and behind it. As the deep surface low moves across south-central Canada through early Tuesday, the tight pressure gradient will lead to continued high winds for northern/central portions of the Rockies and Plains. These winds in excess of 60 mph could lead to downed power lines and treacherous travel especially for high profile vehicles. Ahead of the cold front, much above normal temperatures and dry conditions should continue to combine with the high winds and create dangerous fire weather conditions through this evening. A large Critical Risk of fire weather is in place from the Storm Prediction Center, along with Red Flag Warnings widespread across the Plains toward the Mississippi Valley. High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories are also in effect for many areas. The fire weather threat is expected to shift into Southern California, the Southwest, and the Southern High Plains on Tuesday ahead of the cold front.

As the cold front moves into the Ohio/Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys on Tuesday, moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico is expected as a warm front slowly lifts north into the Southeast. The moisture will help fuel showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the cold front from the Ark-La-Tex north and eastward. With a couple of inches of rain possible, and considering that portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys saw flooding just a few days ago and streamflows and soil moisture remain much above normal, a Slight Risk of flash flooding is in place for portions of southern Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and western Tennessee Tuesday into Tuesday night. Rain and thunderstorms are forecast to spread toward the Eastern Seaboard on Wednesday as the front moves east, with localized flooding possible. Some severe weather cannot be ruled out with these thunderstorms, and currently the Storm Prediction Center has Marginal Risks outlooked for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Elsewhere, some snow is expected for the Northern and Central Rockies through Tuesday just behind the lead cold front and also in the vicinity of a secondary cold front. Most areas should see light amounts of snow, though 4+ inches of snow is possible in the higher terrain of the Central Rockies, and snow combined with gusty winds could lead to reduced visibility. The Northeast could experience some gusty winds through this evening, but winds are already lessening and should continue to do so over the next few hours.

Above normal temperatures in the central U.S. today will give way to temperatures 10-20 degrees below average Tuesday and Wednesday as the cold front sweeps through. Ahead of the front, warm temperatures can be expected for the East through midweek, while the West Coast sees a warming trend as well.

We try to keep this up to date but if is not you can find the updated version here.

When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Thunderstorm Risk

This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.

The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.

Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.

Temperature

A version that shows a 40 hour animation and some other views can be found here

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Day 3 – 7 Hazards

Valid Thursday April 01 2021 – Monday April 05 2021

Hazards:

– Heavy snow across portions of the Northeast, Thu, Apr 1.

– Flooding possible across portions of the Southeast, the Mid-Atlantic, the Southern Appalachians,
and the Tennessee Valley.

– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Southeast, the Lower Mississippi Valley,
the Southern Appalachians, the Ohio Valley, and the Tennessee Valley.

– Heavy snow across portions of mainland Alaska, Fri-Sat, Apr 2-Apr 3.

Detailed Summary:

In the medium-range forecast period (Thursday, April 1st to Monday, April 5th), the hazards chart looks very quiet during this forecast period. One hazard will be the threat of heavy snow over parts of the Northeast on Thursday. Low pressure over the Northeast will move northeastward into Southeastern Canada by Friday. Besides the heavy snow, the system will produce rain over the coastal parts of the Northeast and light snow over other parts of the Northeast into parts of the Central Appalachians, also on Thursday. Behind the front, high pressure over the Southern Plains northeastward to the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes will move eastward to Mid-Atlantic by Saturday. Part of the high will advance off the Mid-Atlantic Coast on Sunday, while the other half settles over the Southeast on Sunday, nudging northward to the Central Appalachians by Monday. Even though it is at the very beginning of the growing season over parts of the country, the high will bring temperatures below normal over parts of the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast and the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday and Friday. The minimum temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s to low 30s over the Ohio Valley and the upper 20s to low to mid 30s over the Tennessee Valley and the low to mid 30s over the Gulf Coast States on Thursday and Friday morning. Temperatures will rebound to the 40s by Sunday. Additionally, the winds will be high along and just offshore over the Gulf of Maine and the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday morning, then quiet down.

In the meantime, a front extending from the Northern Plains to Northern California, on Friday, will move eastward to Great Lakes by Sunday. There will be no precipitation or very light along the boundary as it moves eastward. Elsewhere, weak moisture will move onshore over the West Coast on Sunday. The moisture will interact with a deep upper-level trough just offshore to produce light precipitation over parts of the West Coast and into the Sierra Nevada Mountain on Sunday.

For Alaska, an area of deep low pressure moving off the Eurasian continent, on Thursday will move into the Bearing Sea on Friday will move into the Western Mainland on Saturday. The pressure gradient around the low and the high over the North Pacific will produce strong wind over the Aleutians into the Alaska Peninsula on Friday and Saturday. The wind will be below the criteria for high wind over the region, though. The storm will produce heavy snow over parts of the Southwest into parts of the South-Central Mainland on Friday into Saturday. In particular, the heavy snow will develop over the Nulato Hills, the Kuskokwim Mountains, parts of the Alaska Peninsula, and the western parts of the Alaska Range. As the system moves east across the Gulf of Alaska and into the Alaska Panhandle, the system will produce coastal rain and interior/higher elevation snow over parts of the Southeast mainland and the Alaska Panhandle. The precipitation amounts will be below the criteria for heavy precipitation with this storm.

(This is updated only during the week) Note the first list is weather highlights, this list is hazards. Not sure there is that much of a difference but they come from two different parts of NOAA. The Day 3 – 7 Hazards List does not update on weekends. But it is still useful as it remains valid for the period of time it covers. Of course, all forecasts are subject to change. Later we show a map of the hazards. Perhaps we should show them together.

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.

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Ski Snow Reports

New Feature – Ski Reports. (We may be a tad premature but not by much). It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every GEI Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.

We will update the above map (or maps) weekly (or more often when the situation is changing rapidly) but more frequent updates can be obtained here.

Snow Forecasts.

Day 1

Day 2

Additional snow information can be found here and here.

We also include drought information in this section.

More information can be found here.

March Drought Outlook..

Seasonal Outlook Issued February 18, 2021

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Tropical Events

I am replacing the large with three small maps but you can click on them to get larger versions. Even though they are small maps you should be able to tell if there is activity and If I see activity I will make the map where there is activity full size and when available add other related maps. Sorry for any confusion but the NHC maps do not update during the Winter except if there is activity. We leave them in simply because if there is a storm NOAA will start to update the relevant map even though it is not normally updated during the off season. The maps are a bit small but if you click the map you can see the date and time when it was updated.

the Central Pacific.	the Eastern Pacific	the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico

The Central Pacific

Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.

And the Western Pacific

Weekly Tropical Forecast

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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).

First Temperature

And then Precipitation

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Mesoscale Events

The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.

Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.

This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.

There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps

The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

Now we look at the forecast for the Maximum Temperature three days out.

Looking ahead to next week.

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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings

Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.

Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
Convective Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook
The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook
Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook

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