Written by Sig Silber

HEADLINES (Updated 5:23 PM EDT) –

– A dangerous severe weather outbreak is ongoing across the Mid-South along with the threat of excessive rainfall into the Tennessee Valley and the Midwest, followed by high winds across the Ohio Valley

– Unsettled weather and cool temperatures throughout much of the West as gusty winds and blowing dust subside in the Desert Southwest tonight

– Record warmth expected along the East Coast on Friday

This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.

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For those interested in longer-term forecasts, we just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and it can be accessed here.

Short Range Focal Points

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 PM EDT Thu Mar 25 2021
Valid 00Z Fri Mar 26 2021 – 00Z Sun Mar 28 2021
…A dangerous severe weather outbreak is ongoing across the Mid-South along with the threat of excessive rainfall into the Tennessee Valley and the Midwest, followed by high winds across the Ohio Valley…
…Unsettled weather and cool temperatures throughout much of the West as gusty winds and blowing dust subside in the Desert Southwest tonight…
…Record warmth expected along the East Coast on Friday…
A rapidly intensifying low pressure system moving across the mid-section of the country toward the Great Lakes will continue to provide the ingredients for a severe weather outbreak into tonight across the Mid-South, where the Storm Prediction Center highlights a large area with a moderate to high probability of severe weather. Powerful thunderstorms, aided by a subtle warm front, are forecast to continue blossoming across the South and then tracking into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys tonight. These intense thunderstorms may contain a myriad of hazards that include violent long-track tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail. In addition to the severe threats, hydrologic hazards are also a serious concern from northern Alabama and Mississippi to the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians. Torrential rainfall rates in these areas that also contain overly saturated soil is a recipe for flash flooding. Residents in these areas should have a plan of action if severe weather threaten their respective locations.
In addition, the low pressure system will become rather intense as it tracks across the lower Great Lakes tonight, bringing the threat of high winds from the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley to the northern Mid-Atlantic tonight into Friday morning, where Wind Advisories and High Wind Warnings have been issued for the possibility of downed trees and power lines.
The center of the low pressure system will move steadily across northern New England on Friday with a soaking rain and embedded thunderstorms. The trailing cold front will move across the East Coast Friday morning with a marginal risk of severe weather that extends into the Southeast.
In the West, another upper level disturbance digging into the Southwest will continue to set off scattered showers and areas of mountain snow from the Northwest spreading into the Four Corners and the central Rockies on Friday. This upper trough is also playing a role in triggering blowing dust in parts of the Desert Southwest into this evening. Snowfall totals through Friday evening are forecast to be heaviest in the San Juan Mountains where over a foot of snow is expected.
By Saturday, the entire system in the West will exit into the Plains where Gulf moisture will once again make a return to trigger another episode of severe weather and heavy rain across the Mid-South. Meanwhile, a swath of rain together with mixed wintry precipitation is expected to spread across the northern Plains to the upper Great Lakes ahead of a wave of low pressure.
Temperature-wise, most of the western third of the CONUS remains seasonably cool today with a gradual warm-up arriving along the West Coast Friday and Saturday. On the flip side, the East Coast will feel more like late spring with highs in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Numerous daily record warm min temps are on tap from Florida to Maine on Friday with highs over 90 degrees possible across the Sunshine State.

We try to keep this up to date but if is not you can find the updated version here.

When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Or for the Day 2 Fire Outlook click here. For the Day 3 – 8 Fire Outlook click here.

Thunderstorm Risk

This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.

The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.

Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast

These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.

Temperature

A version that shows a 40 hour animation and some other views can be found here

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Day 3 – 7 Hazards

Valid Sunday March 28 2021 – Thursday April 01 2021
Hazards:
– Heavy precipitation across portions of the Northeast, Sun, Mar 28.
– Heavy rain across portions of the Southeast, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the SouthernAppalachians, and the Tennessee Valley, Wed, Mar 31.
– Heavy snow across portions of the Pacific Northwest and the Northern Great Basin, Sun, Mar 28.
– Heavy snow across portions of the Northern Rockies, Mon, Mar 29.
– Severe weather across portions of the Southeast and the Mid-Atlantic, Sun, Mar 28.
– Flooding possible across portions of the Northeast, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Ohio Valley, and the Tennessee Valley.
– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Ohio Valley.
– High winds across portions of the Northern Plains, Mon-Tue, Mar 29-Mar 30.
– High winds across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast, Sun-Mon, Mar 28-Mar 29.
– Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Tue-Wed, Mar 30-Mar 31.
– Heavy snow across portions of mainland Alaska, Sun-Mon, Mar 28-Mar 29.
– High winds across portions of mainland Alaska and the Aleutians, Sun-Mon, Mar 28-Mar 29.
Detailed Summary:
In the medium-range forecast period (Sunday, March 28th to Thursday, April 1st), a low over Lake Huron and the associated front will move eastward to Southeastern Canada by Monday. The system will produce an area of heavy precipitation over parts of Northern New England on Sunday. The area of heavy precipitation will produce mountain snow and valley rain on Sunday. The trailing front will move across Virginia and the Carolinas on Sunday. The front will produce severe thunderstorms over the region. The previous low over the Northeast will become very deep as the low moves off the Northeast Coast. The pressure gradient associated with the low will produce high wind along the coast from parts of New England to parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic Coast on Sunday and Monday.
On Sunday, moisture will stream onshore over parts of the Pacific Northwest for a short time ahead of the next front to come onshore off the Pacific. The moisture will help produce an area of heavy snow over the Cascades on Sunday and an area of heavy snow over parts of the Bitterroot Mountains on Monday. Meanwhile, the low and the associated front moving onshore over the Pacific Northwest and Western Canada will deepen while continuing to move eastward, just north of the U. S./Canadian border on Tuesday, and then move northward over Hudson Bay by Wednesday.
The deep low will have a strong pressure gradient associated with producing an area of high wind over parts of the Northern High Plains and into the Northern Plains on Monday and Tuesday. The associated front will move across the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast on Wednesday into Thursday. Moisture from the Western Gulf of Mexico will stream northward over the region, intersecting the boundary, producing an area of heavy rain over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, and the Southern Appalachians on Wednesday.
For Alaska, an area of deep low pressure over the Bearing Sea on Sunday will move into the Western Mainland on Monday. The strong pressure gradient around the low will produce high wind over the Aleutians into the Alaska Peninsula and parts of the Southwest Mainland on Sunday and Monday. The same storm will produce heavy snow over parts of the Southwest into parts of the South-Central Mainland on Sunday into Monday. In particular, the heavy snow will develop over the Nulato Hills, the Kuskokwim Mountains, and the western parts of the Alaska Range. As the system moves east across the Gulf of Alaska, moisture will stream inland over the Alaska Panhandle and into parts of the eastern section of the South-Central mainland on Tuesday into Wednesday, producing an area of heavy precipitation.

(This is updated only during the week) Note the first list is weather highlights, this list is hazards. Not sure there is that much of a difference but they come from two different parts of NOAA. The Day 3 – 7 Hazards List does not update on weekends. But it is still useful as it remains valid for the period of time it covers. Of course, all forecasts are subject to change. Later we show a map of the hazards. Perhaps we should show them together.

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.

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Ski Snow Reports

New Feature – Ski Reports. (We may be a tad premature but not by much). It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every GEI Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.

We will update the above map (or maps) weekly (or more often when the situation is changing rapidly) but more frequent updates can be obtained here.

Snow Forecasts.

Day 1

Day 2

Additional snow information can be found here and here.

We also include drought information in this section.

More information can be found here.

March Drought Outlook..

Seasonal Outlook Issued February 18, 2021

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Tropical Events

I am replacing the large with three small maps but you can click on them to get larger versions. Even though they are small maps you should be able to tell if there is activity and If I see activity I will make the map where there is activity full size and when available add other related maps. Sorry for any confusion but the NHC maps do not update during the Winter except if there is activity. We leave them in simply because if there is a storm NOAA will start to update the relevant map even though it is not normally updated during the off season. The maps are a bit small but if you click the map you can see the date and time when it was updated.

the Central Pacific.	the Eastern Pacific	the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico

The Central Pacific

Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.

And the Western Pacific

Weekly Tropical Forecast

This graphic updates on Tuesdays

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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).

First Temperature

And then Precipitation

For those interested in more detail, there are additional weather maps and information in the MORE WEATHER Addendum. The link to the Addendum is here.

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Mesoscale Events

The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.

Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.

This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.

For the Day 2 Outlook click here. For Day 3, click here. For Days 4 – 8 click here. An explanation of the risk codes used can be found here.

There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Or for the Day 2 Fire Outlook click here. For the Day 3 – 8 Fire Outlook click here.

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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps

The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

In and of itself Atmospheric Rivers are not a definitive predictor of extreme weather but it shows where concentrated “rivers” of moist air are forecast to be impacting North America and that is part of the equation for severe weather.

This view provides a better view of the Northeast, the Antilles and also Europe.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

The above is the day by day projected pattern of highs and lows for Day 3 through 7. Earlier we show the pattern for Days 1 and 2.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5

This represents five days of precipitation rather than three days as shown in the earlier graphic.

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

The areas that have cumulative seven-day precipitation increase. You can see where QPF is accumulating.

Now we look at the forecast for the Maximum Temperature three days out.

Looking ahead to next week.

Usually, nothing shows in this graphic for the following week as it is usually too far out to be forecasting severe weather. But this experimental graphic auto-updates. And further information is available here.

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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings

Current watches, warnings, and advisories issued by the agencies of the National Weather Service. Hazards should show up in the various maps but the below links will take you to all outstanding watches and warnings in each category which may include some categories not covered in the various maps or difficult to find. So if there is a category of interest, click on the appropriate link below.

Winter Storm Warning
High Wind Warning
Storm Warning
Avalanche Warning
Coastal Flood Warning
Flood Warning
High Surf Warning
Flash Flood Watch
Gale Warning
Winter Weather Advisory
Flood Advisory
Coastal Flood Advisory
High Surf Advisory
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning
Dense Fog Advisory
Small Craft Advisory For Hazardous Seas
Small Craft Advisory For Rough Bar
Small Craft Advisory
Brisk Wind Advisory
Hazardous Seas Warning
Lake Wind Advisory
Wind Advisory
Rip Current Statement
Gale Watch
Winter Storm Watch
Flood Watch
High Wind Watch
Special Weather Statement
Air Quality Alert
Hydrologic Outlook

Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.

Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Convective Outlooks
Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook

This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook

This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook

This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook

The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook

Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook

This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook

This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook