Written by Sig Silber

HEADLINES (Updated 4:54 PM EDT) –

– A developing low pressure system will bring an increasing threat of severe weather outbreak and flash flooding across the Mid-South to the Tennessee Valley on Thursday

– Unsettled weather and cool temperatures throughout much of the West but near record warmth in the Northeast and Florida Thursday into Friday

This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.

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For those interested in longer-term forecasts, we just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and it can be accessed here.

Directory

CONUS Focal Points

Short Range Focal Points

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 PM EDT Wed Mar 24 2021

Valid 00Z Thu Mar 25 2021 – 00Z Sat Mar 27 2021

…A developing low pressure system will bring an increasing threat of severe weather outbreak and flash flooding across the Mid-South to the Tennessee Valley on Thursday…

…Unsettled weather and cool temperatures throughout much of the West but near record warmth in the Northeast and Florida Thursday into Friday…

The weather pattern across the U.S. will continue to favor frequent formation of low pressure systems to track from the central/southern Plains towards the Great Lakes. One such low pressure system currently over the Great Lakes will move away into Canada, bringing an end to the wintry weather across the upper Great Lakes by early Thursday morning. Further south near the Gulf Coast, a narrow band of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms that keeps redeveloping in southern Louisiana should shift slightly to the east toward the coastal section of Mississippi and Alabama by tonight where excessive rainfall remains possible. Meanwhile, another energetic upper level disturbance responsible for periods of heavy snow in the Southern Rockies is currently exiting into the southern High Plains. Additional snowfall is expected in the higher elevations of southern Rockies into this evening. As the winter weather threat concludes late in the day, scattered showers and thunderstorms look to develop this afternoon with some storms becoming severe in some cases. A Slight Risk for severe storms has been issued from the Storm Prediction Center for parts of the Ark-La-Tex region and southern Oklahoma, with heavy rainfall rates within these storms also possible in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday night.

As the upper trough ejects east on Thursday towards the Mississippi Valley, attention turns to the Mid-South where confidence is increasing in a severe weather outbreak transpiring the second half of the day. Intense thunderstorms are forecast to breakout across the Deep South and track towards the Tennessee Valley Thursday afternoon and into the evening hours. All modes of severe weather: tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail are likely to be on display Thursday afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has posted a Moderate Risk for severe weather over southern Tennessee, northern Mississippi, and northern Alabama, while an expansive Slight Risk area is in place from the central Gulf Coast on north into the Ohio Valley. In addition to the severe hazards, hydrologic hazards are also a concern as widespread heavy showers and thunderstorms may trigger areas of flash flooding. As a result, a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall is in place from northern Mississippi and Alabama on north into the Tennessee Valley. A myriad of weather hazards; both severe and rainfall, are a recipe for a dangerous weather setup in the Mid-South on Thursday. The severe threat may linger into Thursday night across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys while the Northeast contends with periods of rain overnight Thursday.

Elsewhere, another frontal system ushers in more rounds of rain and mountain snow to the Northwest today. Snowfall accumulations over a foot are anticipated along the Cascades and the highest elevations of the northern Rockies. The front steadily pushes south on Thursday as an upper level trough plunges south into the Great Basin and Intermountain West. Expect more mountain snow to take shape in these regions on Thursday with light rainfall amounts in the lower elevations. Temperature-wise, the Intermountain West and Southwest will remain mired and below normal temperatures due to the active storm track and intrusions of colder air aloft. It is a very different story though along the East Coast, for once a nearby coastal low and its assortment of showers exits Wednesday night, a balmy air-mass rolls in courtesy of warm southerly flow. Daily record warm max and min temperatures may be broken in the Northeast on Thursday with the list of potentially record breaking warmth growing across the region on Friday. Even the Sunshine State may see a handful of record warm highs on Thursday as temperatures soar to above 90 degrees in some locations.

We try to keep this up to date but if is not you can find the updated version here.

When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Thunderstorm Risk

This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.

The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.

Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.

Temperature

A version that shows a 40 hour animation and some other views can be found here

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Day 3 – 7 Hazards

Hazards:

– Heavy precipitation across portions of the Northeast, Sun, Mar 28.

– Heavy rain across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Southern Appalachians, the Ohio Valley, and the Tennessee Valley, Sat, Mar 27.

– Heavy rain across portions of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, the Ohio Valley, and the Tennessee Valley, Wed, Mar 31.

– Heavy snow across portions of the Pacific Northwest and the Northern Great Basin, Sun, Mar 28.

– Flooding possible across portions of the Central Plains, the Southeast, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Tennessee Valley.

– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley and the Ohio Valley.

– Flooding likely across portions of the Central Plains and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

– High winds across portions of the Northern Plains, Mon-Tue, Mar 29-Mar 30.

– High winds across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast, Mon, Mar 29.

– Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Sat, Mar 27 and Tue-Wed, Mar 30-Mar 31.

– Heavy snow across portions of mainland Alaska, Sun-Mon, Mar 28-Mar 29.

– High winds across portions of mainland Alaska and the Aleutians, Sun-Mon, Mar 28-Mar 29.

Detailed Summary:

The medium-range forecast period (Saturday, March 27th to Wednesday, March 31st), a front extending from the Ohio Valley to the Central/Southern Plains, will move southeastward to the Lower Great Lakes and southwestward to the Lower Mississippi Valley/Western Gulf Coast by Sunday. Moisture from the Western Gulf of Mexico will flow northward, intersecting the boundary and will produce an area of heavy rain over parts of the Tennessee Valley and the Central/Southern Appalachians on Saturday.

On Sunday, moisture will stream onshore over parts of the Pacific Northwest for a short time ahead of the next front to come onshore off the Pacific. The moisture will help produce an area of heavy snow over the Cascades on Sunday. Meanwhile, low pressure over the Central Plains on Saturday will move across the Northeast on Sunday into Monday. The low will help produce an area of heavy precipitation over parts of Northern New England. The area of precipitation will produce mountain snow and valley rain on Sunday.

In the meantime, the low associated with the front moving onshore over the Pacific Northwest will deepen over Western Canada and continue to move eastward just north of the U. S./Canadian border continuing to deepen. The deep low will have a strong pressure gradient associated with producing an area of high wind over parts of the Northern High Plains and into the Northern Plains on Monday and Tuesday. Furthermore, the aforementioned low over the Northeast will likewise become very deep as the low moves off the Northeast Coast. The pressure gradient associated with the low will produce an area of high wind along the coast from parts of New England to parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic Coast on Monday.

The Northwest front will move eastward to the Great Lakes, extending roughly southward to the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southern Plains by Wednesday. Moisture from the Western Gulf of Mexico will stream northward over the region, intersecting the boundary, producing an area of heavy rain over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Southern Ohio Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Wednesday.

For Alaska, low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska and associated front will move inland over the Alaska Panhandle on Saturday. The low-pressure areas will stream moisture into the Alaska Panhandle on Saturday, producing an area of heavy precipitation over the Alaska Panhandle and bring heavy coastal rain, along with interior and higher elevation snow. Another area of deep low-pressure over the Northwestern Pacific on Saturday will move into the Bearing Sea on Sunday and into the Western Mainland on Monday. The strong pressure gradient around the low will produce high wind over the Aleutians into the Alaska Peninsula and parts of the Southwest Mainland on Sunday and Monday. The same storm will produce an area of heavy snow over parts of the Southwest into parts of the South-Central Mainland on Sunday into Monday. In particular, the heavy snow will develop over the Nulato Hills, the Kuskokwim Mountains, and the western parts of the Alaska Range. As the system moves east across the Gulf of Alaska, moisture will stream inland over the Alaska Panhandle and into parts of the eastern section of the South-Central mainland on Tuesday into Wednesday.

(This is updated only during the week) Note the first list is weather highlights, this list is hazards. Not sure there is that much of a difference but they come from two different parts of NOAA. The Day 3 – 7 Hazards List does not update on weekends. But it is still useful as it remains valid for the period of time it covers. Of course, all forecasts are subject to change. Later we show a map of the hazards. Perhaps we should show them together.

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.

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Ski Snow Reports

New Feature – Ski Reports. (We may be a tad premature but not by much). It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every GEI Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.

We will update the above map (or maps) weekly (or more often when the situation is changing rapidly) but more frequent updates can be obtained here.

Snow Forecasts.

Day 1

Day 2

Additional snow information can be found here and here.

We also include drought information in this section.

More information can be found here.

March Drought Outlook..

Seasonal Outlook Issued February 18, 2021

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Tropical Events

I am replacing the large with three small maps but you can click on them to get larger versions. Even though they are small maps you should be able to tell if there is activity and If I see activity I will make the map where there is activity full size and when available add other related maps. Sorry for any confusion but the NHC maps do not update during the Winter except if there is activity. We leave them in simply because if there is a storm NOAA will start to update the relevant map even though it is not normally updated during the off season. The maps are a bit small but if you click the map you can see the date and time when it was updated.

the Central Pacific.	the Eastern Pacific	the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico

The Central Pacific

Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.

And the Western Pacific

Weekly Tropical Forecast

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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).

First Temperature

And then Precipitation

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Mesoscale Events

The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.

Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.

This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.

There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps

The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

Now we look at the forecast for the Maximum Temperature three days out.

Looking ahead to next week.

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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings

Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.

Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
Convective Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook
The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook
Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook

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