Written by Sig Silber
HEADLINES (Updated 5:56 PM EST) –
– Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the Southeast through Wednesday morning, with isolated flooding possible
– Gusty winds and frigid wind chills expected in the Northeast tonight, along with snow in the Rockies and interior Northeast through Wednesday
– Warm up continues across Central U.S. while Northeast cools down
This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.
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For those interested in longer-term forecasts, we just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and it can be accessed here.
Readers can scan through this article or jump to where they want to go via the links to the right. To get back to the Directory, hit the back arrow at the top of the URL bar on your screen. But in many cases, one of my Editors has graciously inserted a Return to Directory link to click so that is even easier. This is so high tech that I hardly believe it. |
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CONUS Focal Points
Short Range Focal Points
Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 303 PM EST Tue Mar 02 2021
Valid 00Z Wed Mar 03 2021 – 00Z Fri Mar 05 2021
…Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the Southeast through Wednesday morning, with isolated flooding possible…
…Gusty winds and frigid wind chills expected in the Northeast tonight, along with snow in the Rockies and interior Northeast through Wednesday…
…Warm up continues across Central U.S. while Northeast cools down…
A low pressure system, currently in the Gulf of Mexico, will produce rain and thunderstorms across much of the Southeast through tomorrow morning before exiting into the Atlantic. Showers may linger across southern Florida during the day tomorrow. Between 1-2 inches of rain is expected for the region with isolated amounts surpassing 3 inches possible over parts of southern South Carolina. In the meantime, a system moving across southern Ontario will generate snow for parts of Upstate New York and Vermont. A general area of 3-6 inches of snow is expected with locally higher amounts possible. There’s an Elevated Area of Fire Risk over parts of the Central Plains tonight as dry air moves into the region. Much of the central and western U.S. will experience above average temperatures on Wednesday with parts of the Northern Plains seeing high temperatures peak between 20-30 degrees above average.
A new low pressure system is forecast to emerge over southern California tomorrow. This system will produce light rain across the Southwest on Wednesday and snow over the Central/Southern Rockies on Thursday, before strengthening over the Southern Plains on Thursday night. Snow totals over the Central/Southern Rockies should be between 3-6 inches with some isolated areas seeing near a foot. Rain and thunderstorms may spread out ahead of this system over the Central/Southern Plains Thursday evening into Friday. A complex system will arrive over the Pacific Northwest on Thursday night. Another Elevated Fire Weather area is in effect for parts of the Desert Southwest as winds and dry conditions increase on Wednesday. The Northeast will cool down as the Northern Plains remain well above average as far as high temperatures go on Thursday.
We try to keep this up to date but if is not you can find the updated version here.
When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.
Thunderstorm Risk
This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation
Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.
The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.
Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.
Day One CONUS Forecast | Day Two CONUS Forecast |
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be | |
During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.
Temperature
A version that shows a 40-hour animation and some other views can be found here
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Day 3 – 7 Hazards
Valid Friday March 05 2021 – Tuesday March 09 2021
Hazards:
– Heavy precipitation across portions of the Pacific Northwest, Fri, Mar 5.
– Heavy precipitation across portions of California and the Pacific Northwest, Fri, Mar 5 and Mon-Tue, Mar 8-Mar 9.
– Heavy snow across portions of California, Mon-Tue, Mar 8-Mar 9.
– Flooding possible across portions of the Southeast.
– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Southeast, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Central Appalachians, and the Ohio Valley.
– Flooding likely across portions of the Central Appalachians and the Ohio Valley.
– High winds across portions of the Aleutians, Fri, Mar 5.
– Heavy precipitation across portions of mainland Alaska, Fri-Sat, Mar 5-Mar 6 and Mon-Tue, Mar 8-Mar 9.
– High winds across portions of mainland Alaska, Sun-Mon, Mar 7-Mar 8.
Detailed Summary:
During the medium range period (Friday, March 5th – Tuesday, March 9th) much of the activity over the lower 48 will be isolated to the west of the Rockies, where persistent upper-level troughing will set the stage for multiple rounds of precipitation. On Friday a moisture-rich cold front is forecast to move onshore, bringing heavy rain to the low-lying coastal regions of northern California and the Pacific Northwest, while heavy snow is expected to fall in the Olympic and Kalamath Mountains. Moderate precipitation along the northern California/Oregon border will likely linger into Saturday, as the frontal boundary is anticipated to stall over the region before continuing its eastward propagation late Saturday into Sunday. As the system passes through eastern California, moderate to heavy snowfall will be possible over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada. Early next week a second system will make its way onshore along an almost identical path as the first, however, the greatest influx of moisture will occur along the northern California/Oregon border, where a mix of heavy coastal rain and mountain snow, particularly in the Sierra Nevada, is forecast Monday into Tuesday.
Elsewhere, an upper-level low working in tandem with a low pressure/frontal system at the surface is forecast to bring moderate rain to the Southern Plains on Friday. Current model guidanc suggests 24 hour rainfall totals exceeding an inch will be possible in some isolated areas of Kansas and Oklahoma, however, there is stark disagreement on how much, when, and where this will occur. Given the uncertainty and the fact that the system will be fast moving with minimal flooding concerns, no hazard area has been drawn. After exiting the Southern Plains this system will progress eastward, passing through the Gulf of Mexico and gathering a significant amount of moisture on its path to Florida. As this system progresses eastward, it is forecast to move through the Gulf of Mexico, where it will gather a significant amount of moisture, before quickly passing through Florida on Saturday. Similarly to the situation in the Southern Plains model guidance indicates there is potential for this system to produce heavy rainfall with totals of 1-2 inches in 24 hours, however, there is disagreement on whether this will occur onshore along northeast/central Florida or completely offshore. This uncertainty, combined with the fact that the soils in northeast/central Florida are abnormally dry thus minimizing flooding concerns, has led to the decision to omit a hazard area at present. However, the area will be closely monitored over the coming days.
For the entire length of the medium range period, minimum and maximum temperatures are forecast to sit 10 to 20 degrees above normal for the Northern Plains, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and around the Upper Great Lakes. These temperature departures translate into highs will reach into the 50s and 60s, while lows on will remain above freezing starting Saturday. This is particularity significant as many states in these regions still possess a snowpack and these high temperatures combined with a prolonged lack of re-freezing will lead to widespread snow melt. Along the East Coast both maximum and minimum temperatures are forecast to be slightly below normal throughout the weekend, before moderating at the beginning of next week.
In Alaska, a series of storm systems are expected pass through the Bering Sea, the stronger of which will occur at the beginning of the period. Tight pressure gradients associated with these strong systems are forecast to set up and generate hazardous wind gusts over the Aleutians on Friday and the western Mainland Sunday into Monday. As some of these systems propagate southeast towards and into the Gulf of Alaska, their onshore flow is expected to bring a virtually continuous influx of heavy precipitation to the southern Mainland, save for a reprieve on Sunday. Above normal maximum and minimum temperatures are forecast to affect portions of the Far North Sunday through Tuesday, with the highest temperatures expected to occur on Monday. Though warmer than usual, actual temperatures in the region will still remain well below freezing and are thus expected to be non-hazardous.
(This is updated only during the week) Note the first list is weather highlights, this list is hazards. Not sure there is that much of a difference but they come from two different parts of NOAA. The Day 3 – 7 Hazards List does not update on weekends. But it is still useful as it remains valid for the period of time it covers. Of course, all forecasts are subject to change. Later we show a map of the hazards. Perhaps we should show them together.
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.
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Ski Snow Reports
New Feature – Ski Reports. (We may be a tad premature but not by much). It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every GEI Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.
We will update the above map (or maps) weekly (or more often when the situation is changing rapidly) but more frequent updates can be obtained here.
Snow Forecasts.
Day 1
Day 2
Additional snow information can be found here and here.
We also include drought information in this section.
More information can be found here.
March Drought Outlook..
Seasonal Outlook Issued February 18, 2021
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Tropical Events
I am replacing the large with three small maps but you can click on them to get larger versions. Even though they are small maps you should be able to tell if there is activity and If I see activity I will make the map where there is activity full size and when available add other related maps.
the Central Pacific. | the Eastern Pacific | the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico |
Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico
And the Eastern Pacific
Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.
And the Western Pacific
Weekly Tropical Forecast
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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast
And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).
First Temperature
And then Precipitation
For those interested in more detail, there are additional weather maps and information in the MORE WEATHER Addendum. The link to the Addendum is here. |
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Mesoscale Events
The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.
Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.
This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.
There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.
The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.
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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps
The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.
The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.
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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report
This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.
500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View
The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.
Day 3 Above, 6 Below | Day 4 Above,7 Below | Day 5 Above. |
Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3
Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5
Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7
Now we look at the forecast for the Maximum Temperature three days out.
Looking ahead to next week.
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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings
Current watches, warnings, and advisories issued by the agencies of the National Weather Service. Hazards should show up in the various maps but the below links will take you to all outstanding watches and warnings in each category which may include some categories not covered in the various maps or difficult to find. So if there is a category of interest, click on the appropriate link below. |
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Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.
Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.
Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event. | These maps are updated as risks are identified. |
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page. | |
Convective Outlooks | |
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This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online. | Today’s Outlook |
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. | Tomorrow’s Outlook |
This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. | Day 3 Outlook |
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point). | Day 4-8 Outlook |
The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent. | Thunderstorm Outlook |
Fire Weather Outlooks | |
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product. | Today’s Outlook |
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product. | Tomorrow’s Outlook |
This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product. | Day 3-8 Outlook |