Written by Sig Silber
HEADLINES (Updated 3:45 PM EST) –
– There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall from parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Central Appalachians/Ohio Valley through Monday morning
– Snow over the Upper Midwest into parts of the Northeast through Monday evening
This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.
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For those interested in longer-term forecasts, we just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and it can be accessed here.
Readers can scan through this article or jump to where they want to go via the links to the right. To get back to the Directory, hit the back arrow at the top of the URL bar on your screen. But in many cases, one of my Editors has graciously inserted a Return to Directory link to click so that is even easier. This is so high tech that I hardly believe it. |
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CONUS Focal Points
Short Range Focal Points
Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 312 PM EST Sat Feb 27 2021
Valid 00Z Sun Feb 28 2021 – 00Z Tue Mar 02 2021
…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall from parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Central Appalachians/Ohio Valley through Monday morning…
…Snow over the Upper Midwest into parts of the Northeast through Monday evening…
A front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the Central Plains, then westward to the Southwest will slowly move eastward to off the East Coast by Monday. Moisture pooling along the front will help produce rain and thunderstorms from the Southern Plains to the Southern Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, with rain extending from Central/Southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic through Monday.
The WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall from parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Central Appalachians/Ohio Valley through Monday morning. The heavy rain along the front will produce scattered areas of flooding, with the most vulnerable areas will be urban areas, roads, and small streams. Isolated areas of significant areas of flash flooding are possible from Saturday evening into Monday morning. In the meantime, a wave of low pressure over the western end of the front will move from the Southern Rockies into Mexico by Monday. The wave will help produce snow over parts of the Southern Rockies into the Panhandle of Texas on Sunday afternoon into Monday afternoon.
Another front extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the Northern Plains will slowly move eastward to the Northeast by Monday. Light snow will develop along the Northern Plains boundary into the Upper Great Lakes through Sunday evening. Also, pockets of rain/freezing rain will develop over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley. Areas of rain will move into the Great Lakes on Sunday afternoon into late Sunday night. Also, overnight Sunday rain will move into parts of the Northeast that will change over to snow from west to east over the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley into the Northeast on Monday morning into Monday evening. Along the rain/snow line, rain/freezing rain areas will develop over parts of the Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast.
Meanwhile, an upper-level trough over the Northern/Central Rockies will move eastward to the Upper Great Lakes to the Southern Rockies by Sunday evening. The energy will help produce light snow over the Northern/Central Rockies on Saturday evening, ending overnight. Onshore flow will help produce coastal rain and higher elevation snow over parts of the Pacific Northwest through early Monday morning. On Monday, a front will approach the Pacific Northwest and start to move inland by Monday evening.
Elsewhere, fire weather is a concern across portions of the Southern High Plains and Red Flag Warnings are in place there. Gusty winds are possible in the southwestern U.S. and parts of California in particular, so scattered Wind Advisories and High Wind Watches are in effect on Saturday evening into Sunday morning.
We try to keep this up to date but if is not you can find the updated version here.
When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.
Thunderstorm Risk
This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation
Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.
The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.
Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.
Day One CONUS Forecast | Day Two CONUS Forecast |
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be | |
During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.
Temperature
A version that shows a 40 hour animation and some other views can be found here
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Day 3 – 7 Hazards
Valid Monday March 01 2021 – Friday March 05 2021
Hazards:
– Heavy rain across portions of the Pacific Northwest, Wed-Thu, Mar 3-Mar 4.
– Heavy rain across portions of the Southeast, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Southern Plains, and the Tennessee Valley, Mon, Mar 1.
– Heavy snow across portions of the Pacific Northwest and the Northern Great Basin, Mon-Tue, Mar 1-Mar 2.
– Flooding possible across portions of the Central/Southern Appalachians, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Ohio Valley, and the Tennessee Valley.
– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Southeast and the Mid-Atlantic.
– Flooding likely across portions of the Southeast.
– High winds across portions of mainland Alaska and the Aleutians, Mon, Mar 1.
Detailed Summary:
The medium-range period (Monday, March 1 – Friday, March 5) has a quasi-stationary front extending from Southeast to the Western Gulf Coast on Monday. The boundary will have a wave of low pressure develop along the front that will move eastward along the Gulf Coast on Tuesday into Wednesday. As the surface low moves off the Southeast Coast, the boundary will move southward to the Florida Straits by Friday.
Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will pool along the boundary, aiding in producing heavy rain over parts of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi/ Tennessee Valleys on Monday. The boundary will remain quasi-stationary across the Gulf Coast on Tuesday and Wednesday, before moving southward to the Florida Straits on Thursday into Friday. A wave of low pressure will move along the front from Tuesday into Wednesday. Light rain will continue along the Gulf Coast into the Southeast from Tuesday into Wednesday evening, and then move over the Florida Peninsula on Thursday into Friday.
On Monday, upper-level energy moving over the Great Lakes that will produce light snow over the region and move into parts of the Northeast by Monday evening into early Tuesday. Later on Monday, a front will move into the Pacific Northwest, producing light rain and higher elevation snow. The snow will be heavy enough to meet the heavy snow criteria over parts of the Northern Cascades on Monday and Tuesday. Furthermore, weak onshore flow will help produce rain over the Olympic Peninsula on Wednesday into Thursday. The rain will be heavy enough to produce heavy rain over the area. By Friday, an approaching front will aid in producing light rain along the Pacific Northwest Coast.
For Alaska, low pressure over the Bering Sea on Monday will move over the Southwest mainland on Tuesday and along the Gulf of Alaska Coast on Wednesday, before moving farther into the Gulf of Alaska on Thursday into Friday. The low will produce snow over the Southwest Mainland and coastal rain and higher elevation snow on Monday. The area of deep low pressure will help produce high winds over the Aleutians into the Alaska Peninsula on Monday. As the low move to the Gulf of Alaska Coast, snow will develop over parts of the Interior, the South-Center Mainland, and the Panhandle. The snow will wane over most of the state from Tuesday into Wednesday. The snow will return to the Southwest Mainland on Thursday, moving to the South-Center Mainland and the Panhandle.
(This is updated only during the week) Note the first list is weather highlights, this list is hazards. Not sure there is that much of a difference but they come from two different parts of NOAA. The Day 3 – 7 Hazards List does not update on weekends. But it is still useful as it remains valid for the period of time it covers. Of course, all forecasts are subject to change. Later we show a map of the hazards. Perhaps we should show them together.
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.
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Ski Snow Reports
New Feature – Ski Reports. (We may be a tad premature but not by much). It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every GEI Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.
We will update the above map (or maps) weekly (or more often when the situation is changing rapidly) but more frequent updates can be obtained here.
Snow Forecasts.
Day 1
Day 2
Additional snow information can be found here and here.
We also include drought information in this section.
More information can be found here.
February Drought Outlook. This will be updated to the March Outlook soon.
Seasonal Outlook Issued January 21, 2021
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Tropical Events
I am replacing the large with three small maps but you can click on them to get larger versions. Even though they are small maps you should be able to tell if there is activity and If I see activity I will make the map where there is activity full size and when available add other related maps.
the Central Pacific. | the Eastern Pacific | the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico |
Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico
And the Eastern Pacific
Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.
And the Western Pacific
Weekly Tropical Forecast
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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast
And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).
First Temperature
And then Precipitation
For those interested in more detail, there are additional weather maps and information in the MORE WEATHER Addendum. The link to the Addendum is here. |
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Mesoscale Events
The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.
Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.
This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.
There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.
The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.
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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps
The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.
The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.
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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report
This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.
500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View
The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.
Day 3 Above, 6 Below | Day 4 Above,7 Below | Day 5 Above. |
Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3
Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5
Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7
Now we look at the forecast for the Maximum Temperature three days out.
Looking ahead to next week.
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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings
Current watches, warnings, and advisories issued by the agencies of the National Weather Service. Hazards should show up in the various maps but the below links will take you to all outstanding watches and warnings in each category which may include some categories not covered in the various maps or difficult to find. So if there is a category of interest, click on the appropriate link below. |
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Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.
Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.
Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event. | These maps are updated as risks are identified. |
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page. | |
Convective Outlooks | |
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This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online. | Today’s Outlook |
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. | Tomorrow’s Outlook |
This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. | Day 3 Outlook |
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point). | Day 4-8 Outlook |
The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent. | Thunderstorm Outlook |
Fire Weather Outlooks | |
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product. | Today’s Outlook |
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product. | Tomorrow’s Outlook |
This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product. | Day 3-8 Outlook |