Written by Sig Silber

HEADLINES (Updated 3:59 PM EST) –

– Series of storm systems to produce unsettled weather over the northern tier of the Lower 48

– A mild Wednesday along East Coast, colder temperatures return to the Rockies and Heartland

– High winds likely across the Northern Plains, Avalanche Warnings in the Northern Rockies

This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.

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For those interested in longer-term forecasts, we just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and it can be accessed here.

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CONUS Focal Points

Short Range Focal Points

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 302 PM EST Tue Feb 23 2021

Valid 00Z Wed Feb 24 2021 – 00Z Fri Feb 26 2021

…Series of storm systems to produce unsettled weather over the northern tier of the Lower 48 …

…A mild Wednesday along East Coast, colder temperatures return to the Rockies and Heartland…

…High winds likely across the Northern Plains, Avalanche Warnings in the Northern Rockies…

A quick moving storm system is producing periods of snow in the Upper Midwest this afternoon. This wave of low pressure races east towards the Great Lakes tonight with areas of snow and some wintry mix expected. Snowfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are forecast over the northern Great Lakes through Wednesday morning. By Wednesday afternoon, hit-or-miss showers look to develop along a lengthy cold front that extends from the South Central U.S. to the northern Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, periods of snow are possible out ahead of the storm over northenr New England that are likely to continue into Wednesday night. A passing cold front then supplies one more round of snow over northern New England before high pressure builds in from the west Thursday night. The higher elevations of northern New England; such as the Adirondacks, Green, and White mountains, could receive 3 to 6 inches of snow with locally higher amounts possible. To the West, a new Pacific storm delivers more valley/coastal rain and mountain snow to the Pacific Northwest on Thursday. Heavy snow will blanket the Cascades and Olympic ranges with totals as high as 1 to 2 feet.

This same storm system is also responsible for a roller coaster temperature regime spanning from the Intermountain West to the East Coast. Ahead of the storm, abnormally warm temperatures are expected this evening with 60s and 70s spread out from the Southwest to the Deep South. By Wednesday, the warm sector of the storm reaches the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast where the same range of temperatures are likely to be observed. Above normal temperatures are also anticipated in the Northeast with highs approaching 50 degrees in spots. Temperatures could reach 80 degrees in parts of Florida by Thursday. Behind the storm, a cold front delivers a fresh injection of cold Canadian air into the Northwest, the Rockies, and central Plains on Wednesday. As the front plunges south, mountain snow is forecast to develop with accumulations up to a foot possible in the highest elevations of the Bitterroots and Colorado Rockies. Much below normal temperatures reach the southern Plains on Thursday with highs ranging between 15 and 25 degrees below normal. This frontal boundary will come to a halt and stall over the Deep South, setting the stage for areas of showers and thunderstorms to form over the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley Thursday night.

Elsewhere, High Wind Warnings in portions of the Northern Plains will conclude this afternoon as strong wind gusts diminish this evening. Gusty winds may return to both the Northern Rockies and Plains on Thursday as a storm system strengthens in the Canadian Prairies. Also, Avalanche Warnings are in place in parts of the northern Rockies through Wednesday morning. Lastly, Red Flag Warnings have been posted for some counties in the central High Plains due to gusty winds and low humidity levels fostering a favorable environment for fire weather conditions this afternoon.

We try to keep this up to date but if is not you can find the updated version here.

When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Thunderstorm Risk

This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.

The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.

Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.

Temperature

A version that shows a 40 hour animation and some other views can be found here

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Day 3 – 7 Hazards

Valid Friday February 26 2021 – Tuesday March 02 2021

Hazards:

– Heavy rain across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Central Appalachians, the Tennessee Valley, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Mid-Atlantic, the Southern Appalachians, the Southeast, the Southern Plains, and the Ohio Valley, Fri-Tue, Feb 26-Mar 2.

– Heavy snow across portions of the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Rockies, the Northern Great Basin, and the Northern Plains, Fri, Feb 26.

– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Southeast, the Mid-Atlantic, and the Pacific Northwest.

– Flooding likely across portions of the Southeast.

– High winds across portions of the Central Plains, the Central Great Basin, the Northern Plains, the Northern Rockies, the Central Rockies, the Northern Great Basin, and the Pacific Northwest, Fri, Feb 26.

– Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Sat-Sun, Feb 27-Feb 28.

– High winds across portions of mainland Alaska and the Aleutians, Mon-Tue, Mar 1-Mar 2.

– High winds across portions of the Aleutians, Sun-Tue, Feb 28-Mar 2.

– Much above normal temperatures across portions of mainland Alaska, Fri-Sat, Feb 26-Feb 27.

Detailed Summary:

The medium range period (Friday, February 26 – Tuesday, March 2) will feature periods of upper-level troughing generally located over the western half of the U.S., with an upper-level high over the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean. This pattern should lead to moist and relatively warm air flowing from the Gulf of Mexico into the eastern half of the CONUS. A couple of fronts with waves of low pressure along them are expected to provide areas for this moisture to focus, leading to a couple of rounds of moderate to potentially heavy rain. The current forecast shows rain on Friday across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Southeast, and into the Tennessee Valley. Then another round begins by Saturday as moisture increases and lasts all the way into Tuesday, with rain spreading slightly northward into the Ohio Valley at times as well. Timing and location uncertainties were still relatively high today, which kept the Heavy Rain area from being separated spatially or temporally on the Hazards graphic. This means every location may not see heavy rain each day. Over the entire 5-day period, maximum rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches will be possible from central Arkansas to eastern Kentucky and Tennessee. Much of the highlighted area has experienced a rather dry stretch as of late, with Kentucky and West Virginia being the only widespread exceptions. By Tuesday it’s possible the heavy rain axis shifts south and into the Southeast before finally exiting the region. Light wintry precipitation could occur north of the heavy rain axis, but no major impacts are expected.

In the West, heavy snow is possible particularly for the Cascades and Northern Rockies for the latter part of the workweek as a frontal system passes through. Slightly lower but potentially impactful snow amounts are expected for the Wind River Mountains/Tetons toward the Wasatch and Central Rockies. Gusty winds are also possible for the Northern Great Basin, Northern High Plains, and the Rockies in between on Friday. This could make travel difficult for high profile vehicles in areas susceptible to crosswinds. Precipitation could once again increase in the Northwest early next week, but amounts do not seem terribly high. With the aforementioned troughing across the West, somewhat below normal temperatures are forecast for the Great Basin, Rockies, and portions of the Plains. High temperatures could be 10 to 20 degrees below normal across the Northern Plains and Northern Rockies on Friday. Temperatures will likely be warmer than normal across the Southeast and Gulf Coast States for the entire forecast period. Highs in the 60s and 70s (80s in Florida) will produce an early taste of spring for the region.

For Alaska, a surface low pressure system is forecast to move across the Bering Sea and produce some precipitation and gusty winds over the Aleutians and western Alaska on Friday. However, heavier amounts of precipitation are expected for South-central Alaska into the Panhandle as the low pressure system reforms in that area Saturday into Sunday. Most of the heavy precipitation is likely on Saturday, but should linger across the southeastern Panhandle on Sunday. Across the southwestern mainland, a period of upper-level ridging centered around Friday could cause much above normal temperatures, which could be hazardous as temperatures may rise above freezing. Then, another frontal system is forecast to track across the Aleutians early next week, which could lead to gusty winds and some precipitation there, as well as high waves offshore.

(This is updated only during the week) Note the first list is weather highlights, this list is hazards. Not sure there is that much of a difference but they come from two different parts of NOAA. The Day 3 – 7 Hazards List does not update on weekends. But it is still useful as it remains valid for the period of time it covers. Of course, all forecasts are subject to change. Later we show a map of the hazards. Perhaps we should show them together.

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.

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Ski Snow Reports

New Feature – Ski Reports. (We may be a tad premature but not by much). It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every GEI Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.

We will update the above map (or maps) weekly (or more often when the situation is changing rapidly) but more frequent updates can be obtained here.

Snow Forecasts.

Day 1

Day 2

Additional snow information can be found here and here.

We also include drought information in this section.

New February Drought Outlook

Seasonal Outlook Issued January 21, 2021

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Tropical Events

I am replacing the large with three small maps but you can click on them to get larger versions. Even though they are small maps you should be able to tell if there is activity and If I see activity I will make the map where there is activity full size and when available add other related maps.

the Central Pacific.	the Eastern Pacific	the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico

And the Eastern Pacific

Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.

And the Western Pacific

Weekly Tropical Forecast

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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).

First Temperature

And then Precipitation

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Mesoscale Events

The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.

Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.

This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.

There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps

The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

Now we look at the forecast for the Maximum Temperature three days out.

Looking ahead to next week.

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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings

Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.

Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
Convective Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook
The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook
Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook

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