Written by Sig Silber

HEADLINES (Updated 8:55 PM EST) –

– A relatively quiet pattern across the Lower 48, absent of heavy rains or much below average temperatures

– Much above-average temperatures to spread east from the Plains to the East Coast

– High winds likely across the Northern High Plai

– Accumulating snows possible across portion of New England, to the east of the Lower Lakes and from the Northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes

This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.

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For those interested in longer-term forecasts, we just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and it can be accessed here.

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CONUS Focal Points

Short Range Focal Points

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 227 PM EST Mon Feb 22 2021

Valid 00Z Tue Feb 23 2021 – 00Z Thu Feb 25 2021

…A relatively quiet pattern across the Lower 48, absent of heavy rains or much below average temperatures…

…Much above average temperatures to spread east from the Plains to the East Coast…

…High winds likely across the Northern High Plains…

…Accumulating snows possible across portion of New England, to the east of the Lower Lakes and from the Northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes…

A relatively tranquil weather pattern expected over the next two days across the lower 48. The mid to upper level flow will remain predominantly out of the west, keeping arctic air absent from the country. The much above average temperatures across the Plains Monday will persist into Tuesday and also spread eastward into the eastern third of the nation over the next two days. The largest departures from normal are expected across portions of the Central to Southern Plains on Tuesday where high temperatures are expected 15 to 20 degrees warmer than average. By Wednesday, much of the country to the east of the Mississippi River will be 10+ degrees warmer than average. Temperatures 10+ degrees warmer than average also forecast on Wednesday from much of Texas into the desert southwest and southern California.

Colder than average temperatures will spread southeast from the Northern Rockies region Tuesday into the Central Rockies and Central High Plains region by Wednesday as a cold front presses southeastward across these regions. In the wake of this front across the Northern High Plains, high winds are likely with gusts up to 75 mph possible. High wind warnings and wind advisories are in effect across much of Montana, portions of Wyoming and into western to central portions of North and South Dakota.

Heavy rains will be absent from the lower 48 over the next two days in this relatively tranquil weather pattern. The most significant precipitation will be in the form of snow across portions of New England into tonight, to the east of Lakes Erie and Ontario tonight into Tuesday and from portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday.

We try to keep this up to date but if is not you can find the updated version here.

When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Thunderstorm Risk

This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.

The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.

Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.

Temperature

A version that shows a 40 hour animation and some other views can be found here

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Day 3 – 7 Hazards

Valid Thursday February 25 2021 – Monday March 01 2021

Hazards:

– Heavy rain across portions of the Southern Plains, the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the Ohio Valley, and the Central/Southern Appalachians, Thu-Mon, Feb 25-Mar 1.

– Heavy snow across portions of the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Rockies, and the Northern Great Basin, Thu-Fri, Feb 25-Feb 26.

– Flooding possible across portions of the Southeast.

– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Southeast and the Mid-Atlantic.

– Flooding likely across portions of the Southeast.

– Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Sat-Sun, Feb27-Feb 28.

– High winds across portions of the Aleutians, Sun-Mon, Feb 28-Mar 1.

– Much above normal temperatures across portions of mainland Alaska, Thu-Sat, Feb 25-Feb 27.

Detailed Summary:

The medium range period (Thursday, February 25 – Monday, March 1) will feature periods of upper-level troughing generally located over the western half of the U.S., with an upper-level high over the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean. This pattern should lead to moist and relatively warm air flowing from the Gulf of Mexico into the eastern half of the CONUS. A couple of fronts with waves of low pressure along them are expected to provide areas for this moisture to focus, leading to a couple of rounds of moderate to potentially heavy rain. The current forecast shows rain on Thursday into Friday across portions of the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and into the Tennessee Valley. Then another round begins around Saturday as moisture increases and lasts into Monday, and rain could spread slightly northward into the Ohio Valley as well. However, timing and location uncertainties were still high enough not to separate Heavy Rain areas spatially or temporally on today’s Hazards graphic, though every area may not see heavy rain each of those days. Light wintry precipitation is possible north of the heavy rain axis.

In the West, heavy snow is possible particularly for the Cascades and Northern Rockies for the latter part of the workweek as a frontal system passes through. Lower snow amounts are expected for the Wind River Mountains/Tetons toward the Wasatch and Central Rockies. Gusty winds are also possible for the Northern Great Basin, Northern Plains, and the Rockies in between on Thursday and Friday, but at this point seem to remain below high winds thresholds. Precipitation could once again increase in the Northwest early next week, but amounts do not seem terribly high. With the aforementioned troughing across the West, somewhat below normal temperatures are forecast for the Great Basin, Rockies, and portions of the Plains. High temperatures could be 15 to 25 degrees below normal across central and southern portions of the High Plains on Thursday, but still nothing near the cold experienced over the last couple of weeks. Temperatures will likely be warmer than normal across the eastern third of the country.

For Alaska, a surface low pressure system is forecast to move across the Bering Sea and produce some precipitation and gusty winds over the Aleutians and western Alaska for the latter part of the workweek. However, heavier amounts of precipitation are expected for Southcentral Alaska into the Panhandle as the low pressure system reforms in that area Saturday into Sunday. Most of the heavy precipitation is likely on Saturday, but should linger across the southeastern Panhandle on Sunday. Across the southwestern mainland, a period of upper-level ridging centered around Friday could cause much above normal temperatures, which could be hazardous as temperatures may rise above freezing. Then, another frontal system is forecast to track across the Aleutians early next week, which could lead to gusty winds and some precipitation there, as well as high waves offshore.

(This is updated only during the week) Note the first list is weather highlights, this list is hazards. Not sure there is that much of a difference but they come from two different parts of NOAA. The Day 3 – 7 Hazards List does not update on weekends. But it is still useful as it remains valid for the period of time it covers. Of course, all forecasts are subject to change. Later we show a map of the hazards. Perhaps we should show them together.

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.

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Ski Snow Reports

New Feature – Ski Reports. (We may be a tad premature but not by much). It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every GEI Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.

We will update the above map (or maps) weekly (or more often when the situation is changing rapidly) but more frequent updates can be obtained here.

Snow Forecasts.

Day 1

Day 2

Additional snow information can be found here and here.

We also include drought information in this section.

New February Drought Outlook

Seasonal Outlook Issued January 21, 2021

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Tropical Events

I am replacing the large with three small maps but you can click on them to get larger versions. Even though they are small maps you should be able to tell if there is activity and If I see activity I will make the map where there is activity full size and when available add other related maps.

the Central Pacific.	the Eastern Pacific	the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico

And the Eastern Pacific

Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.

And the Western Pacific

Weekly Tropical Forecast

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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).

First Temperature

And then Precipitation

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Mesoscale Events

The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.

Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.

This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.

There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps

The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

Now we look at the forecast for the Maximum Temperature three days out.

Looking ahead to next week.

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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings

Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.

Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
Convective Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook
The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook
Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook

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