Written by Sig Silber

HEADLINES (Updated 5:20 PM EST) –

– Major winter storm to impact Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast

– Rain/freezing rain to develop over parts of the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast

– Much below-average temperatures continue to hold on over the Central/Southern Plains into the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley

– There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central Gulf Coast tonight into Thursday morning and over the Southeast into Friday morning

This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.

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For those interested in longer-term forecasts, we just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and it can be accessed here.

Directory

CONUS Focal Points

Short Range Focal Points

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 310 PM EST Wed Feb 17 2021

Valid 00Z Thu Feb 18 2021 – 00Z Sat Feb 20 2021

…Major winter storm to impact Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast…

…Rain/freezing rain to develop over parts of the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast…

…Much below-average temperatures continue to hold on over the Central/Southern Plains into the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley…

…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central Gulf Coast tonight into Thursday morning and over the Southeast into Friday morning…

Low pressure over the Northern Gulf of Mexico will move northeastward over the Southeast by Thursday evening. Simultaneously, a second low along the Southeast Coast will move northward along the Southeast Coast until moving off the Mid-Atlantic Coast on Thursday evening into Friday. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will overrun the boundary bringing moist air over very cold surface temperatures over the Southern Plains to the Southeast and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. A major winter storm will track from the Lower Mississippi Valley this evening into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through Thursday night, containing threats for significant ice (rain/freezing rain), sleet, and heavy snow. Total ice accumulations of 0.25″ to 0.5″ (locally higher) are expected from Eastern Texas into Northern Louisiana and Western Mississippi through late tonight before the storm tracks northeastward. There is increasing potential for 0.25″ to 0.5″ (locally higher) ice accumulations across South-Central Virginia, a region still recovering from a major ice storm that occurred this past weekend.

A swath of snow will develop from parts of the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys northeastward to the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast, with the heaviest snow expected over the Mid-Atlantic and Central Appalachians. There will be significant travel disruption in both the snow and ice areas with concern for further/extended power outages for areas already experiencing power outages with the storm.

Meanwhile, rain and showers/thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Central Gulf Coast moving into the Southeast on Thursday. The SPC issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central Gulf Coast from tonight into Thursday morning. The severe thunderstorms’ main hazards will be frequent lightning, damaging severe thunderstorm wind gust, hail, and a few tornadoes through Thursday morning. The severe weather Risk will continue over parts of the Southeast through Friday morning. Furthermore, light snow will develop over the Great Lakes on Thursday morning, continuing through Friday. Also, overnight Thursday, snow will develop over parts of New England.

In the meantime, light snow will develop over parts of the Northern Intermountain Region/Great Basin into the Rockies tonight into Thursday afternoon before mainly ending. Later on Thursday, a front will move onshore over the Northwest, moving inland to the Northern Rockies/Great Basin into California by Friday evening. The system will produce rain and higher elevation snow over the Pacific Northwest/Northern California on Thursday evening. The snow will expand into the Northern Rockies and Great Basin on Friday. The coastal rain and higher elevation snow will continue through Friday evening. The Arctic air will also continue over the Plains and Mississippi Valley with temperatures of 25 to 40 degrees below average.

We try to keep this up to date but if is not you can find the updated version here.

When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Thunderstorm Risk

This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.

The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.

Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.

Temperature

A version that shows a 40 hour animation and some other views can be found here

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Day 3 – 7 Hazards

Valid Friday February 19 2021 – Tuesday February 23 2021

Hazards:

– Heavy precipitation across portions of the Pacific Northwest, Sun-Tue, Feb 21-Feb 23.

– Heavy snow across portions of the Pacific Northwest and the Northern Great Basin, Fri-Tue, Feb 19-Feb 23.

– Heavy snow across portions of the Central Great Basin, the Pacific Northwest, and the Northern Great Basin, Fri-Sat, Feb 19-Feb 20.

– Heavy snow across portions of the Northern Rockies, Sun-Mon, Feb 21-Feb 22.

– Heavy snow across portions of the Northeast, Fri, Feb 19.

– Flooding possible across portions of the Southeast, the Southern Appalachians, the Mid-Atlantic, the Central Appalachians, and the Ohio Valley.

– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Mid-Atlantic.

– Flooding likely across portions of the Southeast and the Mid-Atlantic.

– High winds across portions of the Central Rockies, the Central Plains, the Central Great Basin, the Northern Plains, and the Northern Rockies, Sun-Mon, Feb 21-Feb 22.

– Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Central Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Central Appalachians, the Northern Plains, the Tennessee Valley, the Great Lakes, the
Middle Mississippi Valley, the Southern Appalachians, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Southeast, the Southern Plains, and the Ohio Valley, Fri-Sat, Feb 19-Feb 20.

– Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Southern Appalachians, the Great Lakes, the Mid-Atlantic, the Central Appalachians, and the Ohio Valley, Sun, Feb 21.

– Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle, Sat-Mon, Feb 20-Feb 22.

– Much below normal temperatures across portions of mainland Alaska, Sat-Tue, Feb 20-Feb 23.

Detailed Summary:

During the medium range period (Friday, February 19th – Tuesday, February 23rd) a continuation of arctic cold and wintry weather will be found across several sections of the country, but there is light at the end of this cold and dark tunnel. On Friday, a storm system is expected to be in the process of exiting the East Coast. Heavy snowfall greater than 4 inches will be possible across portions of New England before precipitation gradually ends early Saturday. Meanwhile, the bitter cold that has gripped the center of the Nation will remain this weekend before slowly moderating by Sunday. Temperatures 10 to 20 degrees below average will still be possible across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic on Sunday, thanks to a fresh snowpack. By early next week temperatures will actually hedge above average across the northern tier of the United States and nearly the entire country could see high temperatures above freezing.

Multiple rounds of precipitation are set to continue the active weather pattern across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies during this time frame. At the moment, the greatest chances for impactful snowfall can be found across the Cascade Mountains of Washington and Oregon early this weekend, lingering into next week across Washington. Heavy snow is also expected across northern Idaho and northwest Montana ahead of an approaching cold front. This same frontal system is likely to lead to gusty downsloping winds across the northern and central High Plains on Sunday and Monday. Precipitation will likely fall as rain across coastal/lower elevation regions in the Pacific Northwest during the medium range period. Rain could be heavy and add up to over two inches between Sunday and Tuesday.

At the same time, a storm system traversing the central Rockies on Friday and Saturday could bring moderate snow to the higher elevations of Utah and Colorado. By Sunday, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop across the central Plains and move toward the Great Lakes and Northeast. Light rain and snow is expected ahead of this system, with a wintry mix in-between. High uncertainty remains with how much moisture will be available and therefore a heavy snow area was not added to the hazards chart today. If an area was to be added in future forecasts it would likely be across the Lower Great Lakes and New England between Sunday and Monday. Be sure to check the latest forecast for the most up-to-date information.

For Alaska, a busy pattern over the Gulf of Alaska will lead to a long duration period of heavy coastal rain and inland snow across the Panhandle between Saturday and Monday. Liquid recipitation amounts over 2 inches will be possible, with over a foot of snow likely in the higher elevations Additionally, daily low temperatures are expected to be much below normal for portions of the Interior beginning on Saturday. With temperatures reaching as low as -30F, extreme caution should be taken when traveling outdoors to prevent frostbite and illness.

(This is updated only during the week) Note the first list is weather highlights, this list is hazards. Not sure there is that much of a difference but they come from two different parts of NOAA. The Day 3 – 7 Hazards List does not update on weekends. But it is still useful as it remains valid for the period of time it covers. Of course, all forecasts are subject to change. Later we show a map of the hazards. Perhaps we should show them together.

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.

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Ski Snow Reports

New Feature – Ski Reports. (We may be a tad premature but not by much). It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every GEI Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.

We will update the above map (or maps) weekly (or more often when the situation is changing rapidly) but more frequent updates can be obtained here.

Snow Forecasts.

Day 1

Day 2

Additional snow information can be found here and here.

We also include drought information in this section.

New February Drought Outlook

Seasonal Outlook Issued January 21, 2021

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Tropical Events

I am replacing the large with three small maps but you can click on them to get larger versions. Even though they are small maps you should be able to tell if there is activity and If I see activity I will make the map where there is activity full size and when available add other related maps.

the Central Pacific.	the Eastern Pacific	the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico

And the Eastern Pacific

Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.

And the Western Pacific

Weekly Tropical Forecast

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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).

First Temperature

And then Precipitation

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Mesoscale Events

The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.

Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.

This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.

There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps

The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

Now we look at the forecast for the Maximum Temperature three days out.

Looking ahead to next week.

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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings

Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.

Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
Convective Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook
The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook
Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook

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