Written by Sig Silber

HEADLINES (Updated 5:29 PM EST) –

– Arctic air to remain entrenched across the north central U.S. for the upcoming week

– A significant ice storm possible Wednesday into Thursday from the Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley

– Light to moderate snows possible from New England into the Mid Atlantic and Upper Ohio Valley

This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.

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For those interested in longer-term forecasts, we just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and it can be accessed here.

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CONUS Focal Points

Short Range Focal Points

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 222 PM EST Mon Feb 08 2021

Valid 00Z Tue Feb 09 2021 – 00Z Thu Feb 11 2021

…Arctic air to remain entrenched across the north central U.S. for the upcoming week…

…A significant ice storm possible Wednesday into Thursday from the Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley…

…Light to moderate snows possible from New England into the Mid Atlantic and Upper Ohio Valley…

No let up expected to the very cold weather pattern affecting large portions of the central to north central U.S. A broad upper vortex centered across much of southern Canada will lock in arctic air across much of the central U.S. from the Northern to Central Plains and into the Upper Mississippi Valley. High temperatures will remain below zero Tuesday and Wednesday from central to eastern Montana, across much of North Dakota and into northern Minnesota. Low temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday mornings across these same areas will likely be in the -15 to -30F range. The combination of these temperatures and wind will result in life threatening wind chill values as low as -55F, with these areas currently under wind chill warnings and advisories. While temperatures are not expected to be as cold farther to the south, much below average temperatures are expected across much of the central U.S. with temperatures 20 to 30 degrees below average over the next several days. To the southeast of the much below average temperatures, much above average temperatures are expected from South Texas, eastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley, along the northern Gulf coast and across Florida. High temperatures across these areas expected to be 10 to 15 degrees above average Tuesday and Wednesday.

The frontal boundary on the leading edge of the central U.S. arctic air will be the focus for two rounds of wintry weather over the next few days. The first storm will produce light to moderate snow fall amounts from portions of the Upper Ohio Valley into the northern Mid-Atlantic and much of New England Monday night through Tuesday. This will be followed by a second storm system Wednesday spreading snows from portions of the Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic. To the south of the area of accumulating snows, a significant ice storm is possible Wednesday into Thursday from northeast Arkansas/southeast Missouri, across far southern Illinois into northern Kentucky, with ice accumulations in excess of .25″ possible across these areas.

We try to keep this up to date but if is not you can find the updated version here.

When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Thunderstorm Risk

This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.

The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.

Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.

Temperature

A version that shows a 40 hour animation and some other views can be found here

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Day 3 – 7 Hazards

Valid Thursday February 11 2021 – Monday February 15 2021

Hazards:

– Heavy precipitation across portions of the Central Appalachians, the Mid-Atlantic, the Pacific Northwest, the Southern Appalachians, and the Northern Great Basin, Thu, Feb 11.

– Heavy rain across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the Mid-Atlantic, the Southern Appalachians, the Southeast, and the Southern Plains, Thu-Fri, Feb 11-Feb 12.

– Heavy snow across portions of the Central Rockies, the Central Great Basin, the Northern Rockies, and the Northern Great Basin, Thu-Fri, Feb 11-Feb 12.

– Heavy snow across portions of the Central Rockies and the Central Great Basin, Fri, Feb 12.

– Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Central Plains, the Great Lakes, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Northern Plains, the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Rockies, the Middle
Mississippi Valley, the Northern Great Basin, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Southern Plains, and the Ohio Valley, Thu-Mon, Feb 11-Feb 15.

– Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Central Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Central Appalachians, the Tennessee Valley, the Great Lakes, the Central Rockies, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Southern Appalachians, the Southeast, the Southern Plains, and the Ohio Valley, Sat-Mon, Feb 13-Feb 15.

– Heavy precipitation across portions of mainland Alaska, Thu, Feb 11.

Detailed Summary:

Cold temperatures will be the predominant story for the upcoming Day 3-7 period (Thursday, Feb 11 to Monday, Feb 15), as a deeply entrenched arctic air mass brings widespread below to much below normal temperatures to many sections of the lower 48. The greatest impacts will be over the central U.S., where temperatures will range from 25-40 degrees below normal through the entire period; this translates to an extended period of temperatures remaining below zero over the northern Plains and sections of the northern Intermountain Region. Sub-zero low temperatures will extend as far south as southern Kansas and eastward into Wisconsin/Illinois this weekend, with single digits reaching the southern Plains and into the Northeast. Any winds will exacerbate the very cold air mass, leading to dangerously low wind chills for much of this area. This arctic air mass will not entirely spare the western states as its cold air settles over the Pacific Northwest where record cold temperatures are possible late this week.

A frontal boundary demarcating the southern extent of the arctic air mass will be a focus for heavy precipitation late this week as weak waves of low pressure advance along it. With relatively deep moisture in place over the Southeast, a widespread area of moderate to locally heavy rainfall will extend from the lower Mississippi Valley across the southeastern and southern Mid-Atlantic states. A challenging aspect to this forecast is the precipitation type along the northern expanse of the precipitation field. The current guidance suggests the potential for accumulating freezing rain over sections of central and southern Virginia as the arctic air mass undercuts warmer temperatures aloft. And north of that across northern Virginia/southern Maryland and Delaware could be a stripe of moderate to heavy snows, but there’s still a lot of uncertainty with the details at this time. There’s additional uncertainty with another wave that may ride up the front. Some solutions bring a potential for another winter weather event across the northern mid-Atlantic region and southern New England. Others keep the bulk of the energy and precipitation offshore. This will be something to monitor over the next few days.

Over the western U.S., a storm system is expected to move into Oregon/northern California during Thursday. This isn’t a particularly strong system and there’s still some question of how far north it will track, but with arctic air in place over the Pacific Northwest, decided to include a heavy precipitation area, mainly to highlight the potential for low elevation snowfall. Moisture from this system will reach the higher terrain of western Wyoming/This system will and northern Utah during the latter part of Thursday, eventually reaching the central Rockies by early Friday. This will lead to periods of moderate to locally heavy snowfall in favored higher terrain regions.

Across Alaska, the weather this period will generally be fairly settled as the predominant storm track remains south of the state. The most notable event will be focused over the Kenai Peninsula, Kodiak Island, and the northern Aleutians Thursday into Friday as a fetch of deep Pacific moisture associated with a low approaching the Gulf of Alaska will support heavy precipitation and locally windy conditions.

(This is updated only during the week) Note the first list is weather highlights, this list is hazards. Not sure there is that much of a difference but they come from two different parts of NOAA. The Day 3 – 7 Hazards List does not update on weekends. But it is still useful as it remains valid for the period of time it covers. Of course, all forecasts are subject to change. Later we show a map of the hazards. Perhaps we should show them together.

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.

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Ski Snow Reports

New Feature – Ski Reports. (We may be a tad premature but not by much). It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every GEI Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.

We will update the above map weekly but more frequent updates can be obtained here.

Snow Forecasts.

Day 1

Day 2

Additional snow information can be found here and here.

We also include drought information in this section.

New February Drought Outlook

Seasonal Outlook Issued January 21, 2021

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Tropical Events

I am replacing the large with three small maps but you can click on them to get larger versions. Even though they are small maps you should be able to tell if there is activity and If I see activity I will make the map where there is activity full size and when available add other related maps.

the Central Pacific.	the Eastern Pacific	the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico

And the Eastern Pacific

Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.

And the Western Pacific

Weekly Tropical Forecast

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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).

First Temperature

And then Precipitation

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Mesoscale Events

The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.

Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.

This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.

There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps

The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

Now we look at the forecast for the Maximum Temperature three days out.

Looking ahead to next week.

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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings

Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.

Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
Convective Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook
The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook
Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook

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