Written by Sig Silber

HEADLINES (Updated 5:05 PM EST) –

– Multiple rounds of heavy snow on the way for the Cascades and Northern/Central Rockies & Plains, life-threatening wind chills enter the Northern Plains tonight

– Heavy lake effect snow likely through Saturday across the eastern shores of the Great Lakes

– Developing coastal low may produce heavy snow from the Central Appalachians to the Northeast I-95 corridor, showers and thunderstorms likely in the Southeast

This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.

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For those interested in longer-term forecasts, we just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and it can be accessed here.

Directory

CONUS Focal Points

Short Range Focal Points

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 337 PM EST Fri Feb 05 2021

Valid 00Z Sat Feb 06 2021 – 00Z Mon Feb 08 2021

…Multiple rounds of heavy snow on the way for the Cascades and Northern/Central Rockies & Plains, life-threatening wind chills enter the Northern Plains tonight…

…Heavy lake effect snow likely through Saturday across the eastern shores of the Great Lakes…

…Developing coastal low may produce heavy snow from the Central Appalachians to the Northeast I-95 corridor, showers and thunderstorms likely in the Southeast…

Waves of low pressure will lead to periods of snow from the northern Rockies and Plains to the central Plains this weekend. The first area of low pressure, currently producing moderate-to-heavy snowfall Montana and the central Rockies, tracks into the central Plains tonight. Winter Weather Advisories are in place for much of Nebraska and northeast Kansas through Saturday morning where 3 to 6 inches of snow are in the forecast. Meanwhile, a second wave of low pressure ushers in another round of moderate-to-heavy snow in the northern Rockies and Plains. This long duration stretch of snowfall has led to the issuance of Winter Storm Warnings for parts of Montana that last into Sunday afternoon. By Sunday evening, snowfall will likely be measured in feet along the highest elevations of the Cascades, Bitterroots, and northern Rockies. Periods of light snow will likely linger into Sunday night across the northern Rockies as well. In addition to the snow, bitterly cold temperatures and dangerous wind chills will be common in the northern Plains and Upper Midwest this weekend. High temperatures will struggle to get above zero from Montana and North Dakota to Minnesota both Saturday and Sunday with wind chills potentially as low as -50 degrees. This has resulted in the issuance of Wind Chill Warnings for northern North Dakota and Minnesota, while bone-chilling wind chills are also expected within counties under Wind Chill Advisories that span from eastern Montana to northwest Wisconsin.

Over the Great Lakes, brisk and persistent westerly winds and bitter temperatures support favorable conditions for lake effect snow in the typical snowbelts. The lake effect snow machine continues to pump out bands of heavy snowfall when conditions are ripe due to ice coverage across the Great Lakes being well below average. Weekend snowfall totals are likely to include several inches of snow along the western shores of Michigan with as much as 6 to 12 inches (locally higher amounts possible) downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario.

Attention turns to an upper level disturbance that will lead to the development of low pressure near the Florida Panhandle Saturday evening. Numerous showers and even some thunderstorms are possible across the Southeast with the best chance for thunderstorms occurring across Florida. In fact, a Marginal Risk for severe weather is in place over central Florida. As low pressure tracks northeast Saturday night, its shield of precipitation on its northern flank looks to fall in the form of snow from the southern Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic. There is still some uncertainty as to the storm’s exact track and location by Sunday morning, but the latest forecast calls for snow, falling heavily at times, from the DC/Baltimore metro areas up the I-95 corridor to southern New England on Sunday. Snowfall totals could range anywhere from a couple inches to as much as 6 inches in the higher elevations of the central Appalachians. Winter Storm Watches have been issued from western North Carolina and southwest Virginia to portions of the Northeast I-95 corridor. Interests in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast will want to monitor the forecast closely this weekend for additional updates.

We try to keep this up to date but if is not you can find the updated version here.

When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Thunderstorm Risk

This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.

The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.

Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.

Temperature

A version that shows a 40 hour animation and some other views can be found here

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Day 3 – 7 Hazards

US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook

Valid Monday February 08 2021 – Friday February 12 2021

Hazards:

– Heavy precipitation across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the Ohio Valley, the Southern/Central Appalachians, the Southeast, and the Mid-Atlantic, Thu-Fri, Feb
11-Feb 12.

– Heavy rain across portions of the Southern Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the Southern Appalachians, the Southeast, and the Mid-Atlantic, Thu-Fri, Feb 11-Feb 12.

– Heavy snow across portions of the Middle/Upper Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley, Mon, Feb 8.

– Heavy snow across portions of the Northeast and the Great Lakes, Tue, Feb 9.

– Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Northern Rockies, the Northern/Central Plains, the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley, Mon-Fri, Feb
8-Feb 12.

– Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Central/Southern Plains, the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley, Wed-Fri, Feb 10-Feb 12.

– Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Southwest, the Southern Rockies, the Central/Southern Plains, the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the Ohio Valley, the Great Lakes, the Central/Southern Appalachians, the Mid-Atlantic, and the Northeast, Fri, Feb 12.

– Much below normal temperatures across portions of mainland Alaska, Mon-Thu, Feb 8-Feb 11.

– Much below normal temperatures across portions of mainland Alaska, Mon-Tue, Feb 8-Feb 9.

Detailed Summary:

The medium range period (Monday, February 8th to Friday, February 12th) will be characterized by a persistent Arctic surface high across the Northern/Central Plains. In the upper levels, broad troughing should extend across much of the CONUS as a deep upper low meanders around northern Ontario. This pattern will lead to bitterly cold air over the north-central U.S. for the entire period, while expanding south and east with time until it reaches the Southern Plains to the Lower Great Lakes region by Friday. Low temperatures that are 15 to 30 degrees below average will be widespread, and current forecasts show temperatures of 40 degrees below average are possible in parts of Montana in particular around Tuesday. Some locations in the far Northern Plains could stay below 0F even for high temperatures for multiple days in a row. Overall, the first major intrusion of Arctic air into the CONUS will cause persistent, dangerous cold. Lake effect snow can also be expected in this pattern given mostly unfrozen Great Lakes.

Along the southern and eastern edge of the Arctic high, periods of precipitation are possible through the period as at least some moisture overruns frontal systems, and in association with upper-level energy moving through the main trough. First, some snow is possible in portions of the midwest to the Upper Great Lakes region on Monday. While this snow does not look to be extremely heavy, the current forecast shows that the Chicago area could see impactful snow. From there, snow is expected to spread into the Interior Northeast on Tuesday, which could be heavy in upstate New York (as lake enhancement and upslope flow over the Adirondacks combine) and eastward into parts of New England. Then there is quite a bit of uncertainty with other systems that could traverse south of the high pressure system. Current forecasts seem to show there is potential for heavy precipitation in the southeastern quadrant of the CONUS north of the front in the Gulf of Mexico for the latter half of the workweek. On the northern side, given the cold air in place, this could be in the form of impactful snow or ice. The pattern is in place for icy conditions somewhere, but locations are highly uncertain at this time.

Over Alaska, an upper-level low is still expected to pinch off over the mainland and cause much below average temperatures starting Monday of next week. Bitterly cold temperatures are forecast to reach into the -40s for parts of the North Slope and the Yukon Flats of eastern Alaska, while below average temperatures by 20-30 degrees are likely for much of the mainland. Temperatures may become less anomalous in the Brooks Range and North Slope by midweek and across the state by the end of the week, as upper-level ridging serves to weaken the upper low, and as the Arctic surface high retreats. Relatively weak surface low pressure systems over the Gulf of Alaska could lead to snow across coastal portions of the south-central mainland and eastward into the Panhandle at periods during the workweek, but model disagreements remain in terms of precipitation amounts and timing, and at this point look to remain below hazards thresholds.

(This is updated only during the week) Note the first list is weather highlights, this list is hazards. Not sure there is that much of a difference but they come from two different parts of NOAA. The Day 3 – 7 Hazards List does not update on weekends. But it is still useful as it remains valid for the period of time it covers. Of course, all forecasts are subject to change. Later we show a map of the hazards. Perhaps we should show them together.

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.

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Ski Snow Reports

New Feature – Ski Reports. (We may be a tad premature but not by much). It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every GEI Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.

We will update the above map weekly but more frequent updates can be obtained here.

Snow Forecasts.

Day 1

Day 2

Additional snow information can be found here and here.

We also include drought information in this section.

New January Drought Outlook

Seasonal Outlook Issued January 21, 2021

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Tropical Events

I am replacing the large with three small maps but you can click on them to get larger versions. Even though they are small maps you should be able to tell if there is activity and If I see activity I will make the map where there is activity full size and when available add other related maps.

the Central Pacific.	the Eastern Pacific	the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico

And the Eastern Pacific

Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.

And the Western Pacific

Weekly Tropical Forecast

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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).

First Temperature

And then Precipitation

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Mesoscale Events

The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.

Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.

This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.

There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps

The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

Now we look at the forecast for the Maximum Temperature three days out.

Looking ahead to next week.

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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings

Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.

Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
Convective Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook
The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook
Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook

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