Written by Sig Silber

HEADLINES (Updated 5:46 pm EST) –

– Heavy rain and flooding associated with Tropical Storm Eta slowly diminishing across southern Florida

– Showers and thunderstorms as well as wintry precipitation expected on Tuesday from the central Plains to the Upper Great Lakes

– Heavy rain and flash flooding threat shifts to the southern/central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday

This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.

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For those interested in longer-term forecasts, we just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and it can be accessed here.

Directory

CONUS Focal Points

Short Range Focal Points

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD – 319 PM EST Mon Nov 09 2020

Valid 00Z Tue Nov 10 2020 – 00Z Thu Nov 12 2020

…Heavy rain and flooding associated with Tropical Storm Eta slowly diminishing across southern Florida…

…Showers and thunderstorms as well as wintry precipitation expected on Tuesday from the central Plains to the Upper Great Lakes…

…Heavy rain and flash flooding threat shifts to the southern/central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday…

Tropical Storm Eta continues to slowly drift southwestward and away from southern Florida this evening. Much of the heavy rain has ended here, but flooding will be slow to recede across portions of the Sunshine State due to over a foot of rain falling in certain low-lying areas. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Eta to slowly meander over the eastern Gulf of Mexico through midweek.

Across the central U.S., an autumn cold front is currently pushing through the central Plains and Upper Midwest. While it does so, showers and isolated thunderstorms can be found along the front, with a few areas of mixed precipitation well behind across the northern Plains. By Tuesday an area of low pressure is expected to form across the southern Plains along this same front and strengthen as it races toward the Upper Great Lakes. Cold air in place across the central Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley will allow for developing precipitation to fall as snow. Snowfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches are possible from central Nebraska to northern Wisconsin. A light glaze of freezing rain and/or sleet will be possible further east and closer to the low pressure center. Winter weather will also be easy to find across the northern/central Rockies and Cascades. Multiple energy impulses will create conditions ripe for high elevation snow, with multiple mountain peaks potentially picking up over a foot of snow during the next couple of days.

By Wednesday, the aforementioned cold front will approach the eastern third of the U.S. and interact with abundant moisture streaming in from the western Atlantic and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Some of this moisture can also be traced back to Tropical Storm Eta, which is forecast to still be churning in the Gulf of Mexico at this point. These atmospheric ingredients will lead to the likelihood of heavy rain along the southern and central Appalachians, as well as portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Current forecasts call for a widespread area of 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts possible. The biggest threat associated with the heavy rain will be flash flooding from the southern Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic. Residents in this region should clean out any drainage areas that may have become clogged with leaves over the last few weeks before the heavy rain arrives.

Meanwhile, temperatures will run well above average across the eastern U.S. through Wednesday. In fact, record-breaking warm temperatures are likely as highs continue to reach into the 70s and 80s, with lows only dipping into the 50s and 60s. On the western side of the country, record lows will be possible across California and the Southwest on Tuesday before temperatures moderate slightly on Wednesday.

We try to keep this up to date but if is not you can find the updated version here.

When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Thunderstorm Risk

This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.

The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.

Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.

Temperature

A version that shows a 20 hour animation and some other views can be found here OR SIMPLY CLICK ON THE IMAGE.

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Day 3 – 7 Hazards

Valid Thursday November 12 2020 – Monday November 16 2020

Hazards:

– Heavy precipitation across portions of the Central Plains, the Central Great Basin, the Northern Plains, the Northern Rockies, the Central Rockies, California, the Northern Great Basin, and the Pacific Northwest, Thu-Mon, Nov 12-Nov 16.

– Heavy rain across portions of the Southeast and the Mid-Atlantic, Thu, Nov 12.

– Heavy rain across portions of the Central Appalachians, the Tennessee Valley, the Mid-Atlantic, the Southern Appalachians, the Southeast, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley, Sat, Nov 14.

– Heavy rain across portions of the Great Lakes, the Mid-Atlantic, the Northeast, and the Central Appalachians, Sun, Nov 15.

– Flooding possible across portions of the Southeast, the Great Lakes, the Mid-Atlantic, the Southern Appalachians, and the Upper Mississippi Valley.

– Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Central Great Basin, the Northern Rockies, the Northern Great Basin, and the Northern Plains, Thu, Nov 12.

Detailed Summary:

Tropical Cyclone ETA is forecast to move slowly southwestward away from the Florida Keys then on Tuesday morning, move northeastward to near Perry, Florida by Saturday. ETA will interact with a near by front to become a wave of low pressure on the boundary. There is a lot of uncertainty with this forecast so see the latest advisory from NHC for the latest on track and intensity of ETA.

Meanwhile, multiple systems will move into the Pacific Northwest through Monday. The three systems will each bring moisture into the Northwest Coast and inland allowing for higher elevation snow and lower elevation rain over the Pacific Northwest inland to the Northern/Central Rockies through Monday. The changing precipitation type meets our criteria for depicting and area of eavy precipitation over the region. In addition, an upper-level trough associated with the first system will aid in allowing morning low temperatures to be 12 degrees or greater below normal temperatures with some areas experiencing single digits and low teens on Thursday morning.

Out East, a front extending from New England Coast southwestward to the Central Gulf Coast will have moisture pooling along the boundary aiding in producing an area of heavy rain along the Southeast Coast into the Mid-Atlantic mainly on Thursday. An area of low pressure over the Central Plains, on Saturday, will move northward to Central Canada by Sunday. The system will have a strong contention to moisture from the Western Gulf of Mexico that will aid in producing an area of heavy rain over parts of the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys and Central/Southern Appalachians on Saturday. Additionally, low pressure over the Mid-Atlantic Coast, on Sunday, will move northward and merge with the system moving eastward from Central Canada by Monday. The low will have a strong connection to moisture that will produce heavy rain over parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Sunday. As the strong low over Central Canada moves eastward rain will develop over parts of Maine. However, at this time there is uncertainty about if the system will produce enough rain to put an area of heavy rain on the Hazards chart on Monday.

Over Alaska, low pressure along the Gulf of Alaska Coast will slowly move eastward and weaken as high pressure builds over most of the state by Monday. The low will be lacking moisture to produce any areas of heavy precipitation over the area from Thursday to Monday.

(This is updated only during the week) Note the first list is weather highlights, this list is hazards. Not sure there is that much of a difference but they come from two different parts of NOAA. The Day 3 – 7 Hazards List does not update on weekends. But it is still useful as it remains valid for the period of time it covers. Of course, all forecasts are subject to change. Later we show a map of the hazards. Perhaps we should show them together.

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.

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Ski Snow Reports

New Feature – Ski Reports. (We may be a tad premature but not by much). It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every GEI Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.

We will update the above map weekly but more frequent updates can be obtained here.

Snow Forecasts.

Day 1

Day 2

Additional snow information can be found here and here.

We also include drought information in this section.

New November Drought Outlook

Seasonal Outlook Issued October 15, 2020

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Tropical Events

I am replacing the large with three small maps but you can click on them to get larger versions. Even though they are small maps you should be able to tell if there is activity and If I see activity I will make the map where there is activity full size and when available add other related maps.

the Central Pacific.	the Eastern Pacific	the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico

And the Eastern Pacific

Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.

And the Western Pacific

Weekly Tropical Forecast

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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).

First Temperature

And then Precipitation

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Mesoscale Events

The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.

Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.

This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.

There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps

The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

Now we look at the forecast for the Maximum Temperature three days out.

Looking ahead to next week.

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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings

Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.

Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
Convective Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook
The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook
Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook

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