Written by Sig Silber

HEADLINES (Updated 6:04 pm EST) –

– Heavy snow over parts of the Rocky Mountains and Northern Plains

– Heavy rain and strong winds to impact southern Florida as Tropical Storm Eta approaches

– Record or near record warmth continues over the Midwest and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic; record cold expected across California and Great Basin

This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.

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For those interested in longer-term forecasts, we just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and it can be accessed here.

Directory

CONUS Focal Points

Short Range Focal Points

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD – 328 PM EST Sun Nov 08 2020

Valid 00Z Mon Nov 09 2020 – 00Z Wed Nov 11 2020

…Heavy snow over parts of the Rocky Mountains and Northern Plains…

…Heavy rain and strong winds to impact southern Florida as Tropical Storm Eta approaches…

…Record or near record warmth continues over the Midwest and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic; record cold expected across California and Great Basin…

Western U. S. storm moves into Canada as the associated front moves to the Great Lakes to Western Gulf Coast by Tuesday evening. The storm will produce heavy snow and blizzard conditions across North-Central Montana into Monday as strong low pressure over North Dakota slowly lifts into the Canadian Prairies. An additional 8 or more inches of snow is likely through Monday morning across far North-Central Montana, including the city of Havre. Local storm total snow amounts in excess of 24 inches are likely. North to northwest winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 40 to 60 mph will continue into tonight before easing into Monday. These blizzard conditions will continue to cause considerable blowing and drifting snow and reduce visibilities below one-quarter mile at times across central and northern Montana. Travel conditions will remain treacherous into Monday from the heavy snow and considerable blowing and drifting snow.

Additionally, cold air will continue to filter into the western U.S. behind this system as high pressure builds over the Pacific Northwest. This cold airmass may lead to record breaking temperatures over parts of California and Nevada through Monday. While, record breaking heat is expected to expand over the Midwest, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through Tuesday as high pressure along the east coast and the approaching low pressure system in the Plains are expected to pull warm air northward. High temperatures are likely to be between 30 and 40 degrees above average for parts of the Midwest and Northeast through Tuesday. The increased pressure gradient along the foothills of the Central Rockies, caused by the crossing of the previously mentioned area of low pressure, will generate strong wind leading to an Elevated Fire Risk for that area through Monday.

Tropical Storm Eta moves closer to the Florida Peninsula as heavy rain, thunderstorms and strong wind continue over parts of the state. The WPC has issued a Moderate risk of excessive rainfall over the southeastern coast of the Florida Peninsula on Monday into Tuesday morning. The heavy rain associated with Tropical Storm Eta and easterly flow off the Atlantic will produce numerous areas of flash flooding and some of the flooding may be significant. In addition, many streams may flood, potentially affecting large rivers. A total of 4 to 8 inches of rain is expected to fall across south Florida by Tuesday morning. Strong winds may produce coastal flooding across southern Florida through Tuesday evening.

We try to keep this up to date but if is not you can find the updated version here.

When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Thunderstorm Risk

This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.

The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.

Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.

Temperature

A version that shows a 20 hour animation and some other views can be found here OR SIMPLY CLICK ON THE IMAGE.

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Day 3 – 7 Hazards

Valid Monday November 09 2020 – Friday November 13 2020

Hazards:

– Heavy precipitation across portions of California, the Pacific Northwest, and the Northern Great Basin, Thu-Fri, Nov 12-Nov 13.

– Heavy precipitation across portions of the Northern/Central Plains, the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley, and the Great Lakes, Tue, Nov 10.

– Heavy rain across portions of the Central Plains, the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, and the Southeast, Mon-Tue, Nov 9-Nov 10.

– Heavy rain across portions of the Tennessee Valley, the Ohio Valley, the Central/Southern Appalachians, and the Eastern Seaboard, Tue-Fri, Nov 10-Nov 13.

– Heavy snow across portions of the Central Rockies, Mon, Nov 9.

– High winds across portions of the Southeast, Mon-Tue, Nov 9-Nov 10.

– Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Pacific Northwest, California, the Great Basin, the Southwest, the Northern/Central Rockies, and the Northern Plains, Mon-Thu, Nov 9-Nov 12.

– Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Tue-Wed, Nov 10-Nov 11.

– High winds across portions of mainland Alaska and the Aleutians, Mon-Wed, Nov 9-Nov 11.

– High significant wave heights for coastal portions of mainland Alaska, Mon-Tue, Nov 9-Nov 10.

Detailed Summary:

The medium range period (Monday, November 9th – Friday, November 13th) will feature a slow-moving upper-level trough over the western U.S. pressing toward the central U.S. through the period, as shortwave troughs/upper lows come through to reinforce the broad trough. Upper-level ridging is likely over the East through the first half of the week, with the exception of what is currently Tropical Depression Eta.

The medium range forecast for Eta remains uncertain as of Friday. Tropical Depression Eta has emerged from Central America into the Caribbean, and is still forecast to track northeastward toward Cuba in the short range. Then, current forecasts show Eta tracking toward southern Florida early next week as a tropical storm. Thus high winds and heavy rain hazards are in place for southern Florida on Monday/Tuesday, but its exact track is yet to be determined, especially past that point as it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico closer to midweek. A landfall along the Gulf Coast later in the week bringing additional high winds and heavy rain is not out of the question, but is highly uncertain at this point. Please see the National Hurricane Center for updates on Eta.

With the western U.S. trough, periods of mainly light to moderate much-needed precipitation are possible across much of the West, with higher elevations generally seeing higher precipitation amounts due to upslope flow. One area in particular that could see heavy snow totals through Monday is the San Juan Mountains of Colorado. A round of heavier precipitation is possible in the Pacific Northwest and possibly the Northern Rockies late next week as moisture increases there. Another impact of the trough will be rather cold air across the West to the Rockies and High Plains. Low temperatures should drop to 10 to 20 degrees below normal from California toward the Northern High Plains, with single digit lows forecast even in lower elevations of Montana as well as higher elevations of the Intermountain West. High temperatures of 15 to 25 degrees below normal are forecast for much of the West through Thursday. Cooler than normal temperatures may continue into Friday in the West, but may be moderating nearer to normal. Meanwhile ahead of the trough, record-setting warm high temperatures into the 60s and 70s are likely as far north as the Great Lakes region Monday and Tuesday, before the trough encroaches and pushes the warmer than normal temperatures east toward the Eastern Seaboard. In fact, given the warm and moist conditions, hundreds of record warm temperatures could be set next week in the central to eastern U.S., with some record highs but particularly with record warm minimum temperatures.

One shortwave trough/upper low within the main trough is forecast to move through the north-central U.S. Monday into Wednesday and push a cold front across the Plains, Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes. Moisture inflow along and ahead of the front could lead to heavy rain over portions of those areas. With cold air filtering in behind the front, a changeover to mixed precipitation or snow is possible early Tuesday from around eastern Nebraska to the Upper Midwest, on the backside of a surface low developing along the front. Farther south, there could be some localized gusty winds behind the cold front in the Southern High Plains on Monday.

As the front progresses eastward toward the Eastern Seaboard, the heavy rain threat will shift with it as tropical moisture flows northward from Eta into the vicinity of the front. Heavy rain may begin in portions of the East on Tuesday, but is currently expected to peak on Wednesday and Thursday across the Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and possibly parts of the Northeast. Some rain could linger into Friday in the southern Mid-Atlantic. While the exact axis, timing, and amounts of the rainfall are uncertain, the ingredients for heavy rainfall should be in place.

Across Alaska, an active pattern is forecast to continue as a deep surface low pressure system should be located over the Bering Sea Monday, with another forming along the front around Tuesday, which should track eastward near the southern part of the state. This pattern creating tight pressure gradients could lead to high winds for the Aleutians toward the southwest mainland Monday through Wednesday, with significant waves possible as well. Some precipitation is forecast to spread into the western mainland with these systems, but the higher precipitation amounts are expected for the Gulf Coast/Southcentral region Tuesday toward the Panhandle Wednesday. Warmer than normal temperatures should persist across the mainland through at least midweek.

(This is updated only during the week) Note the first list is weather highlights, this list is hazards. Not sure there is that much of a difference but they come from two different parts of NOAA. The Day 3 – 7 Hazards List does not update on weekends. But it is still useful as it remains valid for the period of time it covers. Of course, all forecasts are subject to change. Later we show a map of the hazards. Perhaps we should show them together.

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.

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Ski Snow Reports

New Feature – Ski Reports. (We may be a tad premature but not by much). It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every GEI Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.

We will update the above map weekly but more frequent updates can be obtained here.

Snow Forecasts.

Day 1

Day 2

Additional snow information can be found here and here.

We also include drought information in this section.

New November Drought Outlook

Seasonal Outlook Issued October 15, 2020

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Tropical Events

I am replacing the large with three small maps but you can click on them to get larger versions. Even though they are small maps you should be able to tell if there is activity and If I see activity I will make the map where there is activity full size and when available add other related maps.

the Central Pacific.	the Eastern Pacific	the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico

And the Eastern Pacific

Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.

And the Western Pacific

Weekly Tropical Forecast

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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).

First Temperature

And then Precipitation

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Mesoscale Events

The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.

Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.

This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.

There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps

The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

Now we look at the forecast for the Maximum Temperature three days out.

Looking ahead to next week.

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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings

Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.

Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
Convective Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook
The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook
Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook

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