Written by Sig Silber

HEADLINES (Updated 6:58 pm EST) –

– Pleasant autumn weather continues across much of the central and eastern U.S. as a winter storm develops over the interior western U.S. later on Friday

– Record or near-record warmth continues for the Desert Southwest, northern Rockies and the northern Plains

– Chances of rain increasing across southern Florida as Eta re-emerges into the western Caribbean Sea

This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.

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For those interested in longer-term forecasts, we just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and it can be accessed here.

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CONUS Focal Points

Short Range Focal Points

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD – 300 PM EST Wed Nov 04 2020

Valid 00Z Thu Nov 05 2020 – 00Z Sat Nov 07 2020

…Pleasant autumn weather continues across much of the central and eastern U.S. as a winter storm develops over the interior western U.S. later on Friday…

…Record or near-record warmth continues for the Desert Southwest, northern Rockies and the northern Plains…

…Chances of rain increasing across southern Florida as Eta re-emerges into the western Caribbean Sea…

An unusually expansive ridge of high pressure continues to deliver fine autumn weather across a large portion of the country, with above normal temperatures extending just about from coast to coast. In fact, the warmth across the Desert Southwest, northern Rockies and the northern Plains will continue to be near or above record levels for the next couple of days. Meanwhile, near and slightly above normal temperatures across eastern U.S. into the Deep South will make for very pleasant autumn weather. However, a major change in the upper-level pattern is in store for the western U.S. as a low pressure system is forecast to develop across the interior sections on Friday. The cold air associated with the upper trough is expected to change rain to wintry precipitation especially for the mountainous terrain on Friday from the Sierra Nevada to interior Oregon and parts of Nevada behind an active cold front. Meanwhile, a surge of cold air from Canada will bring wintry precipitation into northwestern Montana.

Over the northern and central High Plains, dry and blustery conditions will raise the fire risk across the area into Thursday.

Return Atlantic moisture north of the stationary front will lift northward by late Thursday/Friday to produce some scattered showers across coastal Carolinas to South Florida, with the potential for heavy rainfall thunderstorms across South Florida on Friday morning.

We try to keep this up to date but if is not you can find the updated version here.

When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Thunderstorm Risk

This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.

The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.

Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.

Temperature

A version that shows a 20 hour animation and some other views can be found here OR SIMPLY CLICK ON THE IMAGE.

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Day 3 – 7 Hazards

Valid Saturday November 07 2020 – Wednesday November 11 2020

Hazards:

– Heavy precipitation across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Northern Plains, Tue-Wed, Nov 10-Nov 11.

– Heavy rain across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, the Ohio Valley, and the Upper Mississippi Valley, Tue-Wed, Nov 10-Nov 11.

– Heavy rain across portions of the Southeast, Sat-Tue, Nov 7-Nov 10.

– Heavy snow across portions of the Central Rockies, the Central Great Basin, the Northern Rockies, the Northern Great Basin, and the Northern Plains, Sat-Mon, Nov 7-Nov 9.

– High winds across portions of the Central Plains, the Central Rockies, the Central Great Basin, the Southern Rockies, the Southern Plains, and the Southwest, Sat, Nov 7.

– High winds across portions of the Northern Plains, Sun-Mon, Nov 8-Nov 9.

– Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Central Plains, the Central Great Basin, the Northern Plains, the Northern Rockies, the Central Rockies, California, the Northern Great Basin, the Pacific Northwest, and the Southwest, Mon-Wed, Nov 9-Nov 11.

– Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Sun-Mon, Nov 8-Nov 9.

Detailed Summary:

The medium range period (Saturday, November 7th – Wednesday, November 11th) will feature a deep upper-level trough moving slowly through the western U.S. toward the central U.S. by next Tuesday, bringing anomalously cold air and precipitation potential. Heavy snowfall amounts greater than 6 inches and locally higher than a foot is possible from the Northern Rockies Saturday toward much of Montana into far western North Dakota through early Monday. High winds will also be possible across central and eastern Montana as a low pressure system rapidly strengthens, leading to possible blizzard conditions. Farther south, a potent cold front is expected to move west to east across the Great Basin, Four Corners, and into the Plains early next week ahead of the upper trough. Gusty winds could be a threat both ahead of and after the front (as the winds shift direction). Winds look to be highest in parts of the the Four Corners states Saturday, but some borderline high winds could make it into the Plains as well. Fire danger could be a threat, but may be limited due to cooler temperatures (causing higher relative humidities) and the potential for the West to see precipitation with the trough. Widespread and much-needed light to moderate precipitation can be expected across much of the West, while particularly high snowfall totals are possible in higher elevations of the San Juan Mountains in Colorado. The cold air associated with this system will be quite cold–high temperatures of 15 to 30 degrees below normal are expected in the West starting over the weekend, while low temperatures will become especially cold by Monday and Tuesday from parts of the West into the Northern High Plains. Single digit lows are forecast even in lower elevations of Montana, and in higher elevations of the Intermountain West.

By Tuesday, the frontal system is forecast to track slowly through the Plains and Mississippi Valley, providing a focus for heavy precipitation both on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the warm side of the front, heavy rain is likely, but rain is expected to change over to snow in many areas on the western side from about eastern Nebraska to the Upper Great Lakes. At this point, it was decided to use “heavy precipitation” instead of “heavy snow” for this area as precipitation types are likely to change and uncertainties still remain as to where exactly the rain/snow line will set up. The heavy rain threat will shift eastward to the southern/central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday, but high uncertainties prevented a hazard area from being added today. Meanwhile, ahead of the upper trough and frontal system, high pressure is generally expected, causing warmer than normal conditions to shift away from the Plains/Midwest after a warm end of the week and develop in the eastern U.S., with high temperature anomalies in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley toward the Northeast 10 to 20 degrees above normal. Record warm minimum and maximum temperatures could be set through parts of the central and eastern CONUS.

The active weather pattern also includes tropical trouble associated with Tropical Storm Eta. There is still plenty of uncertainty regarding what happens with Eta as it currently meanders in Central America. It still appears that at least energy (and maybe the same low pressure system) from Eta may reemerge over the northwestern Caribbean and could track northward toward Cuba and Florida early next week. See the National Hurricane Center for updated forecasts on this system. Regardless, rain is forecast to persist across southern and eastern Florida over the weekend and early next week thanks to easterly flow with tropical moisture. If a tropical system does end up approaching the state next week, additional heavy rainfall is likely.

Across Alaska, the most certain potential hazard during the period is heavy precipitation spreading from west to east across the Gulf of Alaska Coast/Southcentral region into the Panhandle late this weekend into Monday as a surface low pressure system tracks along the coast. Localized areas of high winds are possible given the depth of the low, leading to the potential for some isolated areas of blizzard conditions in Southcentral Alaska, but the placement of these conditions is uncertain. Gusty winds, along with rain and snow will be possible across western portions of the state early next week as a strong low pressure system swings into the Bering Sea. However, the conditions at the moment don’t appear to meet hazardous threshold and uncertainties also still remain.

(This is updated only during the week) Note the first list is weather highlights, this list is hazards. Not sure there is that much of a difference but they come from two different parts of NOAA. The Day 3 – 7 Hazards List does not update on weekends. But it is still useful as it remains valid for the period of time it covers. Of course, all forecasts are subject to change. Later we show a map of the hazards. Perhaps we should show them together.

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.

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Ski Snow Reports

New Feature – Ski Reports. (We may be a tad premature but not by much). It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every GEI Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.

We will update the above map weekly but more frequent updates can be obtained here.

Snow Forecasts.

Day 1

Day 2

Additional snow information can be found here and here.

We also include drought information in this section.

New November Drought Outlook

Seasonal Outlook Issued October 15, 2020

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Tropical Events

I am replacing the large with three small maps but you can click on them to get larger versions. Even though they are small maps you should be able to tell if there is activity and If I see activity I will make the map where there is activity full size and when available add other related maps.

the Central Pacific.	the Eastern Pacific	the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico

And the Eastern Pacific

Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.

And the Western Pacific

Weekly Tropical Forecast

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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).

First Temperature

And then Precipitation

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Mesoscale Events

The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.

Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.

This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.

There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps

The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

Now we look at the forecast for the Maximum Temperature three days out.

Looking ahead to next week.

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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings

Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.

Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
Convective Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook
The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook
Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook

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