Written by Sig Silber

HEADLINES (Updated 5:57 pm EDT) –

– Elevated to critical fire weather conditions continue across large sections of California

– Heavy showers and thunderstorms, with localized flash flooding concerns, will impact the eastern U.S. through the middle of the week

– A strong cold front to bring below normal temperatures in across much of the central and eastern U.S.

This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.

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For those interested in longer-term forecasts, we just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and it can be accessed here.

Directory

CONUS Focal Points

Short Range Focal Points

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD – 352 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2020

Valid 00Z Tue Sep 29 2020 – 00Z Thu Oct 01 2020

…Elevated to critical fire weather conditions continue across large sections of California.…

…Heavy showers and thunderstorms, with localized flash flooding concerns, will impact the eastern U.S. through the middle of the week…

…A strong cold front to bring below normal temperatures in across much of the central and eastern U.S.…

Wildfires continue to impact portions of California as a result of near-record high temperatures, low relative humidity and locally strong, gusty winds. High pressure anchored over the Intermountain West will continue to promote these elevated to critical fire weather conditions at least through tonight, with some improvement on Tuesday and Wednesday for northern California as the high pressure center weakens and the winds at least tend to subside. However, the Transverse Ranges of southern California will remain under a critical fire weather threat through at least the middle of the week where winds will still tend to be dry and gusty, and with near-record heat continuing.

Farther east, showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain focused along and near a cold front that is advancing into the eastern U.S. This front will have multiple waves of low pressure developing along it and lifting northeast up along the coastal plain of the Eastern Seaboard going through Tuesday and Wednesday. These waves of low pressure and the front will be interacting with a pool of deep moisture and sufficient instability for numerous showers and thunderstorms. Consequently, heavy rainfall is expected with locally a few inches of rain possible. In fact, the Weather Prediction Center has highlighted a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast Tuesday through early Wednesday, and the expectation is for at least some localized flash flooding concerns. On Wednesday, the focus for heavy rainfall should shift up across New England before then tapering off as the cold front pushes offshore of the East Coast.

Temperature-wise, much above normal temperatures will again be the story across much of the western U.S. as high pressure remains generally anchored over the region for the next several days. However, the eastern U.S. will see temperatures dip below normal in behind the aforementioned cold front passage going through Wednesday. Gradually toward the end of the week there will be another cold front diving south from Canada which will bring a reinforcing and colder shot of air down across the Midwest and advancing into the eastern U.S.

We try to keep this up to date but if is not you can find the updated version here.

When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Thunderstorm Risk

This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.

The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.

Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.

Temperature

A version that shows a 20 hour animation and some other views can be found here OR SIMPLY CLICK ON THE IMAGE.

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Day 3 – 7 Hazards

Hazards:

– Heavy rain across portions of the Southeast, Thu-Sat, Oct 1-Oct 3.

– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Southeast.

– Much above normal temperatures across portions of California, the Pacific Northwest, and the Great Basin, Thu-Sat, Oct 1-Oct 3.

– Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Central/Northern Plains, the Middle/Upper Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley, Fri-Sat, Oct 2-Oct 3.

– Heavy precipitation across portions of mainland Alaska, Thu-Sat, Oct 1-Oct 3.

– Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Fri, Oct 2 and Sun-Mon, Oct 4-Oct 5.

– Heavy precipitation across portions of mainland Alaska, Thu-Mon, Oct 1-Oct 5.

– High winds across portions of mainland Alaska, Thu-Fri, Oct 1-Oct 2.

Detailed Summary:

During the medium range period (Thursday, Oct 1 – Monday, Oct 5), a deep upper-level trough will be slow-moving across the central to eastern U.S., while upper-level ridging is persistent across the West. This upper-level pattern should lead to warmer than average temperatures by 5 to 15 degrees across the West Coast into the Desert Southwest and Great Basin, and a handful of record warm lows and highs could be set. The most hazardous conditions are likely across the valleys of California into southern Oregon, where much warmer than normal temperatures in the 90s are forecast. The Desert Southwest can expect highs above 100 degrees, about 5 to 10 degrees above average for this time of year. Highs in the 70s and 80s for the Great Basin and the Pacific Northwest are not considered hazardous, but are above normal as well.

On the other hand, cooler than normal temperatures are forecast for the central to eastern U.S. underneath the upper-level trough and behind a couple of cold fronts. High temperatures should be 10 to 15 degrees below average from the Northern/Central Plains across the Mississippi Valley toward the Great Lakes and Tennessee/Ohio Valleys through the weekend, with lesser cool anomalies toward the East Coast. In terms of low temperatures, Friday and Saturday mornings look to be the most below normal, and an area of Much Below Normal Temperatures was delineated on the Hazards graphic across portions of the Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley, where morning low temperatures could get into the 30s and cause the first frost or freeze of the season. This seemed to be the most hazardous aspect of these temperatures more reminiscent of mid- or late fall.

Most of the contiguous U.S. should have generally light to no precipitation during the period. The main exception will be southern Florida, where fronts could linger and cause locally heavy rain through the end of the week at least. There is some signal in the model guidance for heavier precipitation in central to northern Florida for the weekend into early next week as well, which will continue to be monitored. The initial cold front pushing through Florida could cause record low temperatures Thursday morning in the peninsula. With dry, warm conditions in the West, additional fire weather concerns may develop.

Over Alaska, heavy precipitation is forecast along the Gulf of Alaska coast in the vicinity of potent surface lows. An initial low pressure system should spread heavy precipitation across the south-central part of the state through the end of the week, and high winds near Bristol Bay toward the Kenai Peninsula Thursday/Friday. Moist onshore flow from this system could bring a round of heavy rain farther east toward the panhandle Friday, and there is some potential for high wave heights south of the Kenai Peninsula and south of Prince William Sound on Friday as well. Then, another low system moving through the Gulf of Alaska early next week should provide additional chances for heavy precipitation for the Gulf coast for the first part of next week. Farther north in interior Alaska, above normal temperatures are forecast, with highs approaching 60 degrees.

(This is updated only during the week) Note the first list is weather highlights, this list is hazards. Not sure there is that much of a difference but they come from two different parts of NOAA. The Day 3 – 7 Hazards List does not update on weekends. But it is still useful as it remains valid for the period of time it covers. Of course, all forecasts are subject to change. Later we show a map of the hazards. Perhaps we should show them together.

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.

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Ski Snow Reports

New Feature – Ski Reports. (We may be a tad premature but not by much). It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every GEI Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.

We will update the above map weekly but more frequent updates can be obtained here.

Snow Forecasts.

Day 1

Day 2

Additional snow information can be found here and here.

We also include drought information in this section.

New Seasonal Outlook Issued September 17, 2020

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Tropical Events

I am replacing the large with three small maps but you can click on them to get larger versions. Even though they are small maps you should be able to tell if there is activity and If I see activity I will make the map where there is activity full size and when available add other related maps.

the Central Pacific.	the Eastern Pacific	the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico

And the Eastern Pacific

Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.

And the Western Pacific

Weekly Tropical Forecast

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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).

First Temperature

And then Precipitation

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Mesoscale Events

The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.

Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.

This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.

There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps

The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

Now we look at the forecast for the Maximum Temperature three days out.

Looking ahead to next week.

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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings

Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.

Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
Convective Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook
The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook
Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook

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