Written by Sig Silber
We thought in useful to provide this USDA NASS Executive Briefing. In about two weeks there will be another Executive Briefing which will address Corn, Soybeans, Rice and Cotton among other major crops. This one focuses a lot on wheat but it covers some other crops also. We also have the weekly Crop Progress and Condition Reports issued today which cover a large number of crops including the major crops. Overall it looks good.
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NASS issues a large number of reports essentially every day. The schedule can be found
here. Major Reports are presented as an Executive Briefing and that schedule can be found
here.
This shows the survey size.
2020 seems to be in the middle of the pack re Wheat Condition.
Middle of the pack re harvested also and remember these are forecasts.
Overall it is down from last year. The yield is discouraging.
The trend is still up but since 2016 it has been downhill.
This shows the change in yield by state. I have not had a chance to try to sort it out but it looks like it might be related to drought and heat.
Ho Hum
A little more detail. As you can see they do this survey four times a season.
This is total production not yield so with fewer acres planted the total production is less and you see this trend.
Here it is broken down by type of Winter Wheat. You can see the trends and the more recent change from last year.
This one is always interesting as it shows the NASS forecast compared to various industry forecasts. In June NASS was the High Forecast and now they are the Low Forecast. Very interesting.
Not sure what “other” Spring Wheat is but could look it up. But we have switched from Winter Wheat to Spring Wheat. At any rate here is the data by the top five states. The yield is forecasted to be down.
A similar pattern if you go back to 1991 to yield trend is up but from 2112 on it hs been stagnant. If this important?
And here we show the change in yield by state. I wonder if the Dakotas have been impacted by a late start in Winter Wheat going back to last year?
Here the NASS forecast is pretty much in middle of the other industry forecasts.
On to Durum Wheat. It is a specialty Spring Wheat. Yield is down but acres planted was up so forecasted production is up.
There is a regression line shown but it looks more like a plateau effect with recent high yields other than 2017 and this year.
Here we see the change in yield by state. It is interesting that Arizona is the largest producer and yield was up but California which is close in production had a decline in yield.
Here the NASS forecast is in the lower third of the industry forecasts.
Now we look at some other crops: Barley, Oats and Tobacco. Oats look good, Tobacco not so good and in both cases it is yield.
Now we have almonds and apricots. Almonds are up, Apricot production is way down.
And Finally Citrus. It is a downward trend and this year is consistent with that trend i.e. down.
Here is what is coming up. We believe the August 12 report will be important so we probably will cover it. Earlier we provided the link to these reports so the reader can read them directly.
And here is where you can get more information.
Weekly Crop Progress and Condition Report. : This was issued today so here it is.
More details follow but most are contained in the above but not by state.
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Summary of the Above. Corn: Silking and Dought stages Ahead of five-year average and condition good. Soybeans: Blooming Setting Pods Ahead of five-year average and condition good Cotton: Squaring and Setting Boils Equal to five-year average but condition not as good as last year. Sorghum Headed Coloring Equal to five-year average but condition not nearly as good as last year. Peanuts Pegging Equal to five-year average and condition good. Spring Wheat Headed, Harvested (just started) Equal to five-year average and condition good Barley Headed, Harvested (just started) Equal to five-year average and condition good Oats Harvested Equal to five-year average and condition good Winter Wheat Harvested Equal to five-year average (81%) Rice Headed: Better than last year but a bit slow re the five-year average. Crop condition is good. Pasture: Condition not good. CA is the worst with a bunch of states not good including OR, NM, NY, TX, WY, WA, NV, CO. |
