Written by Sig Silber

HEADLINES Updated 4:48 pm EDT) –

“– Heavy Rainfall/flash flooding possible for parts of the Central Gulf Coast, Plains, Midwest, and Tennessee Valley over the next few days

– Elevated fire danger in and near Oregon into tonight and Wednesday

– Cooling and showery in the central U.S.; hot in the West; hot and humid in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic”

This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.

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CONUS Focal Points

Short Range Focal Points

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020

Valid 00Z Wed Jul 29 2020 – 00Z Fri Jul 31 2020

…Heavy Rainfall/flash flooding possible for parts of the Central Gulf Coast, Plains, Midwest, and Tennessee Valley over the next few days…

…Elevated fire danger in and near Oregon into tonight and Wednesday…

…Cooling and showery in the central U.S.; hot in the West; hot and humid in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic…

Broad troughing edging into the northern and northeastern U.S. from Canada will push against a warm ridge of high pressure anchored across the Deep South. This pattern will sustain a nearly stationary front across the mid-section of the country where a good chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue for the next few days. Bouts of heavy rainfall can be expected to slowly shift from the central Plains into the mid-Mississippi Valley toward the Tennessee Valley for the next couple of days as the front begins to lift very slowly northward. Along the central Gulf coast, heavy rains are expected to linger into tonight before the associated dynamics lift further inland on Wednesday. Temperatures will remain below normal for late July across much of the central U.S. due to lingering clouds and precipitation along the stationary front.

Across the the Northwest, afternoon temperatures are forecast to soar into the 90s to near triple digit high temperatures before a Pacific cold front moves into the area Tuesday night; heat advisories are in effect. The boundary washes out ahead of another system approaching the West from the northeast Pacific, which along with a building mid-level ridge allows the heat to rebuild on Thursday with triple digit/record highs possible across the Southwest, Great Basin, and Northwest; excessive heat watches have been posted for the Southwest from Thursday onward. On Tuesday and Wednesday, the Storm Prediction Center has concerns that the thunderstorms in and near Oregon would lead to an increased risk for fire weather due to their associated lightning and minimal expected rainfall; red flag warnings are in effect for portions of Idaho and Oregon in and near the area defined as a Critical Risk for fire weather on Tuesday.

Across the Northeast, hot conditions will persist into midweek with scattered thunderstorms as humid conditions lingering across the Mid-Atlantic where a cold front remains slow to move out of the area.

We try to keep this up to date but if is not you can find the updated version here.

When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Thunderstorm Risk

This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.

The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.

Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.

Temperature

A version that shows a 20 hour animation and some other views can be found here OR SIMPLY CLICK ON THE IMAGE.

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Day 3 – 7 Hazards

Hazards:

– Heavy rain across portions of the Central/Southern Plains, the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, and the Ohio Valley, Thu-Sat, Jul 30-Aug 1.

– Heavy rain across portions of the Central Plains, Thu, Jul 30.

– Heavy rain across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley, Sat-Sun, Aug 1-Aug 2.

– Heavy rain across portions of the Central/Southern Appalachians, the Tennessee Valley, the Mid-Atlantic, the Southeast, and the Ohio Valley, Thu-Fri, Jul 30-Jul 31.

– Flooding possible across portions of the Central Plains and the Middle Mississippi Valley.

– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Northern Plains.

– Flooding likely across portions of the Central Plains.

– Excessive heat across portions of the Central Great Basin, California, and the Southwest, Thu-Mon, Jul 30-Aug 3.

– Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Northern Rockies and the Northern Great Basin, Thu-Fri, Jul 30-Jul 31.

– Heavy rain across portions of mainland Alaska, Thu, Jul 30.

– Heavy rain across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Sat-Sun, Aug 1-Aug 2.

Detailed Summary:

In the medium range period (Thursday, July 30 – Monday, August 3), heavy rain is expected along a frontal system. This wavy east-west oriented front should help focus rainfall and the potential for flooding and flash flooding from the Central Plains through the Middle Mississippi, Tennessee, and Lower Ohio Valleys toward the Appalachians through late in the week. Then, a surface low along the front is forecast to lift northeastward, bringing heavy rainfall to much of the Ohio Valley. After that time, uncertainty increases with the axis of the heaviest rainfall, with model guidance indicating heavy rain could next approach the Lower Great Lakes, Northeast, and/or Mid-Atlantic. Will continue to monitor forecast trends before outlining any area farther north or east. Temperatures are forecast to be several degrees below normal in parts of the Plains and Mississippi Valley due to the cloudiness and rain.

Meanwhile, an upper-level high will take hold over the Southwest U.S. after a respite with last week’s monsoon. Temperatures are expected to be above 110 degrees in the Desert Southwest through early next week as the high barely moves. An upper-level ridge should extend from the high into the Northern Great Basin and Northern Rockies, causing temperatures that are above normal by several degrees, and some temperatures could top 100 in lower elevations Thursday and Friday. These areas should moderate back to normal as upper-level troughing moves in due to an upper low in the northeastern Pacific.

Another area to watch in the medium range is the potential for a tropical low to move across the Atlantic and possibly approach the Southeast coast early next week. It is too soon to nail down specifics, but regardless of tropical development, the system could cause rainy conditions. Did not include an area for heavy rain on today’s hazards graphic considering the uncertainty in development potential as well as strength and track if a tropical cyclone does develop, but an area may be needed in future days. Tropical moisture could stream in even ahead of a potential system.

Over Alaska, a slow-moving low pressure system in the Bering Sea could cause locally heavy rainfall over far southwestern Alaska and parts of the Alaska peninsula on Thursday. Then, moisture could increase in the Panhandle around Friday and cause some rain. Currently, the better chances for heavy rain are over the southeastern and east-central portions of the mainland over the weekend as the moist air moves westward. Uncertainty remains with the positioning of the heavier rainfall, with some model guidance highlighting the terrain with higher amounts, while some take heavy rain more into the Yukon Flats. Then by early next week, somewhere around the south-central to southeastern Gulf of Alaska coast could see heavy rain, but once again the placement is in question and will need to be nailed down in later forecasts. Temperatures could be warmer than average over the lower elevations of interior Alaska, with highs in the 70s or near 80 especially through the end of this week, while the North Slope remains cooler than normal. The Panhandle should also become cooler by the weekend.

(This is updated only during the week) Note the first list is weather highlights, this list is hazards. Not sure there is that much of a difference but they come from two different parts of NOAA. The Day 3 – 7 Hazards List does not update on weekends. But it is still useful as it remains valid for the period of time it covers. Of course, all forecasts are subject to change. Later we show a map of the hazards. Perhaps we should show them together.

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.

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Ski Snow Reports

We will resume more detailed coverage when the summer is over.

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Tropical Events

This is now beyond the time of the year we pay special attention to Tropical Events other than the Western Pacific.

So I am replacing the large with three small maps but you can click on them to get larger versions. Even though they are small maps you should be able to tell if there is activity and If I see activity I will make the map where there is activity full size.

the Central Pacific.	the Eastern Pacific	the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico

Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.

And the Western Pacific

Week Tropical Forecast

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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).

First Temperature

And then Precipitation

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Mesoscale Events

The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.

Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.

This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.

There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps

The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

Now we look at the forecast for the Maximum Temperature three days out.

Looking ahead to next week.

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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings

Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.

Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
Convective Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook
The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook
Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook

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