Written by Sig Silber

HEADLINES (Updated 6:04 pm EDT) –

“- Post-T.C. Fay will continue to weaken as it moves across southern Canada tonight…

– Strong to severe thunderstorms possible tonight from the Central/Southern Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley…

– Record heat is expected to continue across the Desert Southwest into Texas through Monday…”

This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.

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CONUS Focal Points

Short Range Focal Points

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 412 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

Valid 00Z Sun Jul 12 2020 – 00Z Tue Jul 14 2020

.…Post-T.C. Fay will continue to weaken as it moves across southern Canada tonight…

…Strong to severe thunderstorms possible tonight from the Central/Southern Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley…

…Record heat is expected to continue across the Desert Southwest into Texas through Monday…

Post-T.C. Fay has weakened as it tracks across upstate New York today. The threat of strong winds and heavy rainfall is diminishing as Fay loses tropical characteristics and moves into Canada by this evening. A low pressure center in the wake of Fay will quickly approach from the Great Lakes and will keep a good chance of showers and thunderstorms for much of upstate New York and northern New England into Sunday morning. More scattered thunderstorms can be expected to redevelop across the Northeast as another cold front is forecast to dip down from Canada.

Another low pressure system forming over the central Plains will sustain the threat of severe weather tonight from the Central Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley. As the low tracks steadily to the east into the Ohio Valley on Sunday, sunshine and cooler than normal temperatures will spread into the northern Plains while scattered thunderstorms will move into the East Coast on Monday along with summer heat and humidity. Meanwhile, the next low pressure system is forecast to develop yet again over the northern High Plains on Monday, bringing an increasing threat of thunderstorms across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.

Expansive upper level ridging will keep hot and above normal temperatures in place across much of the South. High temperatures from western Texas to the Desert Southwest are forecast to challenge records for at least the next two days (and likely beyond). In fact, temperatures could reach 110 degrees at the hottest locations over the southern High Plains, while 120 degrees is within reach for parts of the Desert Southwest. Above normal temperatures are also likely across much of the interior West and parts of the East Coast states. A large area of heat advisories and excessive heat warnings are in effect across much of the Desert Southwest, Southern Plains and into the Lower Mississippi Valley. The heat will not let up after the sun sets as overnight temperatures will remain above average, and may challenge records in the Southwest and Southern Plains through Monday.

We try to keep this up to date but if is not you can find the updated version here.

When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Thunderstorm Risk

This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.

The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.

Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.

Temperature

This loop showing the prior 40-hours provides perspective. We have not yet figured out how to make this loop update but it is still useful for a few days. An updated version and some other views can be found here.

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Day 3 – 7 Hazards

Hazards:

– Heavy rain across portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Northern Plains, Mon-Tue, Jul 13-Jul 14.

– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Northern Plains.

– Excessive heat across portions of California and the Southwest, Mon, Jul 13.

– Excessive heat across portions of the Southeast, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Southern Plains, Mon-Tue, Jul 13-Jul 14.

– Excessive heat across portions of the Southeast, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Tennessee Valley, Tue-Thu, Jul 14-Jul 16.

– Excessive heat across portions of the Southern Appalachians, the Mid-Atlantic, and the Central Appalachians, Thu-Fri, Jul 16-Jul 17.

Detailed Summary:

The medium range period (Monday, July 13 – Friday, July 17) will continue to feature a summer-like pattern with expanding heat and isolated opportunities for heavy rain. On Monday, a closed upper-level low over central Canada will spawn heavy rainfall over parts of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Some isolated thunderstorms are possible. Models seem to persist in signaling around an inch of rain for the eastern Dakotas, much of Minnesota and parts of northwestern Wisconsin. An area of high pressure over the Southwest and into Texas will produce potentially record breaking heat for the Desert Southwest, southern/eastern Texas and much of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Heat indices continue to suggest temps over 110 degrees with some isolated places breaching 115 degrees. Phoenix and Tucson, Arizona are forecast to tie or break their daily record high temperature on Monday.

The southern ridge will shrink on Tuesday, leading to a bit of a reprieve for the Southwest. Despite that, excessive heat is expected to continue for eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley while expanding up into the Middle Mississippi Valley. To the North, the Upper low will continue its trajectory across central Canada while the northern stream flattens and becomes zonal. This should bring an end to the heavy rain threat over the Upper Midwest. On Wednesday, the bubble high will shrink even further as it moves east into eastern Texas. The excessive heat area will continue across much of the Lower and Middle Mississippi valley while ending for Texas and most of Louisiana. Night time lows are likely to be in the 70s and 80s across much of Texas through Wednesday night, so be prepared for warm evenings next week. On Thursday, the excessive heat area will continue over the Mississippi Valley but a new area has been added for much of the Mid-Atlantic, as the area of high pressure begins to expand across the Tennessee Valley and into the East. The area of high pressure will expand further into the east on Friday, and heat indices will continue to be over 105 degrees for a second day in a row as a result. This will continue the threat of Excessive heat for the Mid-Atlantic.

No widespread weather hazards are expected across Alaska between Sunday and Friday. Temperatures are expected to remain below average with chances of rain and high elevation snow showers. An area of low pressure could reach the western Aleutian Islands by Wednesday, behind a receding ridge, but impacts seem relatively minor at this time.

(This is updated only during the week) Note the first list is weather highlights, this list is hazards. Not sure there is that much of a difference but they come from two different parts of NOAA. The Day 3 – 7 Hazards List does not update on weekends. But it is still useful as it remains valid for the period of time it covers. Of course, all forecasts are subject to change. Later we show a map of the hazards. Perhaps we should show them together.

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.

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Ski Snow Reports

We will resume more detailed coverage when the summer is over.

We will update the above map weekly but more frequent updates can be obtained here.

There is not much snow left.

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Tropical Events

This is now beyond the time of the year we pay special attention to Tropical Events other than the Western Pacific.

So I am replacing the large with three small maps but you can click on them to get larger versions. Even though they are small maps you should be able to tell if there is activity and If I see activity I will make the map where there is activity full size.

the Central Pacific.	the Eastern Pacific	the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico

Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.

And the Western Pacific

Week Tropical Forecast

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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).

First Temperature

And then Precipitation

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Mesoscale Events

The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.

Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.

This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.

There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps

The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

Now we look at the forecast for the Maximum Temperature three days out.

Looking ahead to next week.

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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings

Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.

Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
Convective Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook
The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook
Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook

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