Written by Sig Silber

Updated at 6:54 pm EDT June 26, 2020 – “…There is a enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Great Lakes into the Middle Mississippi Valley……There is a slight risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Great Lakes into the Middle Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley ……Very hot conditions continue across Florida and interior valleys of California……Favorable fire weather conditions are expected over portions of the West…”

This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.

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CONUS Focal Points

Short Range Focal Points

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 404 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2020 Valid 00Z Sat Jun 27 2020 – 00Z Mon Jun 29 2020

…There is a enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Great Lakes into the Middle Mississippi Valley…

…There is a slight risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Great Lakes into the Middle Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley …

…Very hot conditions continue across Florida and interior valleys of California…

…Favorable fire weather conditions are expected over portions of the West…

Moisture flowing northward from the Western Gulf of Mexico will stream northward over the Plains into Midwest pooling along a boundary from the Great Lakes roughly southwestward to the Central Plains, that will aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms.  The Storm Prediction Center has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe weather over portions of the the Upper Great Lakes into the Middle Mississippi Valley, with a broader Slight Risk back into the Central High Plains.  Flash flooding is also forecast as a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall is also in place for much the same area from the Central Plains to the Great Lakes.  Farther south, some locally heavy rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are possible in Southern Texas, which could lead to flash flooding there as well.  The northern part of the front should shift eastward Saturday but stall over the Midwest.  Thus, the main focus for severe weather on Saturday should be across the Northern Mid-Atlantic region into southern parts of the Northeast, while some lower risk of strong thunderstorms as well as a couple of Slight Risks of flash flooding are forecast back toward the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.

Additionally, temperatures over Florida should be hotter than normal, and could even set records with highs in the upper 90s.  Heat is also forecast across the West today, with highs 10 to 15 degrees above normal from Northern California into Washington and Oregon.  Heat Advisories are in effect for the interior valleys of California and for Southwestern Oregon.  Cooler temperatures are expected in the Pacific Northwest Saturday before a dramatic cooldown Sunday as a potent upper-level trough moves in.  At the surface, showers and thunderstorms could form along a cold front in the Northwest on Saturday, but rain totals will ramp up even more early next week.  Farther south, conditions are forecast to be favorable for fire weather, with gusty winds, low humidity, and the potential for dry thunderstorms.  The Storm Prediction Center has Elevated to Critical Risks of fire weather in place over portions of the Central Great Basin to the Southwest.

you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Thunderstorm Risk

This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.

The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.

Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.

Temperature

This loop showing the prior 40-hours provides perspective. We have not yet figured out how to make this loop update but it is still useful for a few days. An updated version and some other views can be found here.

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Day 3 – 7 Hazards

– Heavy rain across portions of the Northern Plains, the Northern Rockies, and the Northern Great Basin, Mon, Jun 29.

– Heavy rain across portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Northern Plains, Tue-Wed, Jun 30-Jul 1.

– Flooding possible across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, and the Upper Mississippi Valley.

– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Northern Plains.

– Flooding likely across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley and the Upper Mississippi Valley.

– Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Northern Plains, Mon-Tue, Jun 29-Jun 30.

– Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Great Lakes and the Upper Mississippi Valley, Wed-Fri, Jul 1-Jul 3.

– Enhanced wildfire risk across portions of the Southern Rockies, the Central Rockies, the Central Great Basin, and the Southwest, Mon, Jun 29.

Detailed Summary:

An unusually intense upper level low closing off over the western U.S. will be the primary driver for hazards across the contiguous U.S. during this Day 3-7 period. This system will amplify as it slides from the Pacific Northwest on Sunday into the northern Rockies and northern Intermountain Region by early Monday. Strong winds rotating through this trough combined with a very dry air mass ahead of a cold front will support an enhanced risk of wildfires over the Southwest and central Great Basin/Rockies during Monday. Conditions should improve on Tuesday as the system lifts into southern Canada.

To the north and west of the upper low, moderate to heavy rainfall that starts on Sunday is likely to continue through much of Monday across sections of western Montana and northern Idaho. Maximum rainfall amounts will generally range from 1-1.5 inches on Monday, and combined with Sunday’s totals, 2 day amounts of up to 3 inches are possible. A lack of significant air mass instability should keep rainfall rates from being excessive, but the amounts support at least some local flood threats.

On Tuesday, the upper low will lift into southern Canada and slowly drag a trailing trough into the Plains states. Moisture streaming northward from the Gulf of Mexico combined with a a well-defined surface front will bring an increasing threat for heavy showers and thundershowers to far eastern Montana and the Dakotas, with this activity only slowly pushing eastward through Wednesday. There have been some differences among the model guidance with the degree of eastward progression, so confidence is lower for the heavy rainfall hazard in this region versus the one over Montana/Idaho for Monday.

Upper ridging out ahead of the trough will bring much above normal temperatures (on the order of 12-15 degrees) across the eastern Dakotas on Monday before the rains become organized on Tuesday. Above to much above normal temperatures will extend into northern/central Minnesota through Wednesday, though increasing clouds and a threat for showers will allow temperatures to moderate across much of western Minnesota by Wednesday. However, farther east over Michigan’s Upper Peninsula and northern sections of the Lower Peninsula, strong upper ridging extending southward from James Bay should result in mostly dry and very warm conditions (upper 80s to near 90 degrees) through the middle to latter part of next week.

Elsewhere, a combination of temperatures near or above 100 degrees and dew points in the 70s will push heat indices to near 110 degrees across portions of southern Texas late this weekend through early next week. Was debating on adding a threat area, but opted against since the temperatures are fairly close to normal.

Over Alaska, a fairly strong upper level low will push across the mainland early next week, bringing cool and unsettled conditions. Temperatures were not quite cool enough (10-15 degrees below normal) and rainfall not heavy enough (.75-1 inch) to meet criteria, but it’s still a fairly anomalous pattern. By mid-late week, there are signs that a storm system will move through the Aleutians or Bering Sea, which could bring locally heavy rain to the Aleutian chain and breezy conditions to the western mainland. However, with fairly notable differences among the models, confidence in strength and placement of any system is very low this far out.

(This is updated only during the week) Note the first list is weather highlights, this list is hazards. Not sure there is that much of a difference but they come from two different parts of NOAA. The Day 3 – 7 Hazards List does not update on weekends. But it is still useful as it remains valid for the period of time it covers. Of course, all forecasts are subject to change. Later we show a map of the hazards. Perhaps we should show them together.

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.

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Ski Snow Reports

We will resume more detailed coverage when the summer is over.

We will update the above map weekly but more frequent updates can be obtained here.

There is not much snow left.

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Tropical Events

This is now beyond the time of the year we pay special attention to Tropical Events other than the Western Pacific.

So I am replacing the large with three small maps but you can click on them to get larger versions. Even though they are small maps you should be able to tell if there is activity and If I see activity I will make the map where there is activity full size.

the Central Pacific.	the Eastern Pacific	the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

500 PM PDT Fri Jun 26 2020

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Boris, located about 1100 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.

1. A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions  have become less conducive, and development of this system is unlikely as it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph away from the coast of Mexico during the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

2. Another area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is located several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Some development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form early next week while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.

And the Western Pacific

Week Tropical Forecast

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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).

First Temperature

And then Precipitation

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Mesoscale Events

The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.

Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.

This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.

There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps

The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

Now we look at the forecast for the Maximum Temperature three days out.

Looking ahead to next week.

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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings

Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.

Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
Convective Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook
The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook
Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook

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