Written by Sig Silber

Updated at 6:50 pm EDT Tuesday June 16, 2020 – “…Cool and wet weather continues over the Mid-Atlantic and the Carolinas……Cool and rainy weather in the Pacific Northwest will move into northern Rockies as another round of late-season high-elevation snowfall……Hot conditions through the central and northern Plains; severe storms in the northern Plains; fire weather danger in the Southwest and central High Plains…”

This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.

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CONUS Focal Points

Short Range Focal Points

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020 Valid 00Z Wed Jun 17 2020 – 00Z Fri Jun 19 2020

…Cool and wet weather continues over the Mid-Atlantic and the Carolinas…

…Cool and rainy weather in the Pacific Northwest will move into northern Rockies as another round of late-season high-elevation snowfall…

…Hot conditions through the central and northern Plains; severe storms in the northern Plains; fire weather danger in the Southwest and central High Plains…

A slow-moving upper-level low will continue to bring at least a couple more days of cool and wet weather for the Mid-Atlantic region and down into the Carolinas. Up to a couple of inches of additional rain can be expected for parts of Virginia and North Carolina where flash flooding remains a possibility into Wednesday morning.  The upper low will gradually weaken with time and the threat of heavy across the Mid-Atlantic will slowly ease on Wednesday.  However, scattered areas of rain and a few thunderstorms can be expected to edge further north and west toward the northern Mid-Atlantic, central Appalachians, and the lower Great Lakes Wednesday night into early Thursday.

The northwestern U.S. will also witness cool and damp weather courtesy of a large cool air mass associated with yet another anomalous upper low. Some of the highest elevations of the northern Rockies can expect to receive accumulating snow, particularly for central Idaho into northwest Wyoming tonight into Wednesday where winter storm watches and warnings remain in effect.  While seasonally cool temperatures look to stick around in the northern Rockies, the Pacific Northwest along with northern and central California should see temperatures rebound more seasonal levels on Wednesday, and then above normal by the second half of the week.

Elsewhere across the Lower 48, the Great Plains and Upper Midwest will be in the warm sector ahead of an approaching cold front over the Rockies, resulting in  widespread high temperatures into 90s.  Some severe weather is also possible across the Dakotas into northern Minnesota through Wednesday as the front slowly progresses eastward.  To the Southwest, elevated to critical fire weather conditions, thanks to prolonged breezy and very dry conditions.  Red Flag warnings remain in effect from Nevada to the high plains of eastern Colorado and western Kansas.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Thunderstorm Risk

This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.

The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.

Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.

Temperature

Water Vapor.

This view of the past 24 hours provides a lot of insight as to what is happening. I changed the map to one that shows intensity. I think it may be relatively new. Not sure.

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Day 3 – 7 Hazards

– Heavy rain across portions of the Southern Plains, Mon, Jun 22.

– Heavy rain across portions of the Central Plains, Fri, Jun 19.

– Flooding possible across portions of the Northern Plains and the Northern Rockies.

– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Southeast, the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Northern Plains.

– Much above normal temperatures across portions of California, the Central Great Basin, the Pacific Northwest, and the Northern Great Basin, Sun-Mon, Jun 21-Jun 22.

– Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Great Lakes and the Upper Mississippi Valley, Fri-Sat, Jun 19-Jun 20.

– Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Northeast and the Great Lakes, Fri-Sun, Jun 19-Jun 21.

Detailed Summary:

An upper-level ridging extending from the Southern Plains northeastward to the Upper Great Lakes will slowly weaken when upper-level troughing over the Northern Plains moves eastward to the Upper Great Lakes by Saturday and associated front will slowly move across the Upper Great Lakes on Saturday into Monday. The upper-level ridging will allow temperatures to become 12 degrees above normal on Friday. These conditions met the criteria for depicting and area of much above normal temperatures over the region on Friday ending on Saturday.

Meanwhile the upper-level ridge ahead of the aforementioned upper-level trough over the Northern Plains will build into the Lower Great Lakes and into parts of the Northeast as an upper-level low over the Mid-Atlantic will slowly weaken on Friday into Sunday. The building upper-level ridging will allow temperatures to become 12 degrees above normal over the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast on Friday into Sunday. On Saturday the upper-level trough over the Northern Plains will begin to move into the Northeast and Lower Great Lakes. These conditions met the criteria for depicting and area of much above normal temperatures over the region on Friday into Sunday.

A third area of much above normal temperature will develop over parts of the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, the Northern Intermountain Region, and parts of Northern California. As the upper-level trough moves away from the Northern Plains, upper-level ridging will develops over the region starting on Sunday and building into Monday. On Tuesday, a weak upper-level trough will move over the Pacific Northwest reducing the effects of the upper-level ridging. The ridging will aid in allowing temperatures to reach the criteria for an area of much above normal temperatures on Sunday into Monday.

A front associated with the upper-level troughing over the Northern Plains will extend from the Upper Great Lakes to the Southern High Plains and will move eastward to the Lower Great Lakes to the Southern Plains and stalling over the Central/Southern Plains into the Lower Great Lakes. A plume of Moisture will move northward from the Western Gulf of Mexico northward over the Southern Plains on Friday that will overrun the front. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along the front that will produce enough rain to met the criteria for heavy rain over parts of the Central Plains Friday. The front will slowly move into Southern Plains on Monday producing another region of heavy rain over parts of Dallas, Texas.

No hazards are delineated over Alaska. There will be rain over the Alaska Panhandle yet the rain will not meet the criteria for heavy rain over the area.

(This is updated only during the week) Note the first list is weather highlights, this list is hazards. Not sure there is that much of a difference but they come from two different parts of NOAA. The Day 3 – 7 Hazards List does not update on weekends. But it is still useful as it remains valid for the period of time it covers. Of course, all forecasts are subject to change. Later we show a map of the hazards. Perhaps we should show them together.

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.

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Ski Snow Reports

We will resume more detailed coverage when the summer is over.

We will update the above map weekly but more frequent updates can be obtained here.

There is not much snow left.

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Tropical Events

This is now beyond the time of the year we pay special attention to Tropical Events other than the Western Pacific.

So I am replacing the large with three small maps but you can click on them to get larger versions. Even though they are small maps you should be able to tell if there is activity and If I see activity I will make the map where there is activity full size.

the Central Pacific.	the Eastern Pacific	the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A non-tropical low pressure area located about 150 miles  south-southeast of the North Carolina-South Carolina border  continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms over  portions of southeastern and eastern North Carolina, including the  Outer Banks, and adjacent Atlantic waters. The low has moved little today, but a slow northward motion is forecast to begin by this evening. Environmental conditions are expected to remain unfavorable for significant development through tonight when the low should move inland over eastern North Carolina.  Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could occur over portions of northeastern South Carolina and southeastern and eastern North Carolina through Wednesday. For additional information, see products from your local National Weather Service office.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

2. Showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles east of Trinidad and Tobago are associated with a westward-moving tropical  wave. Some slow development of this system is possible over the next couple of days before upper level winds become less conducive and  the system begins to interact with the landmass of South America. Regardless of development, this system could produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall over Trinidad and Tobago and the northeastern coastal sections of Venezuela through the middle of the week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.

And the Western Pacific

Week Tropical Forecast

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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).

First Temperature

And then Precipitation

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Mesoscale Events

The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.

Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.

This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.

There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps

The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

Now we look at the forecast for the Maximum Temperature three days out.

Looking ahead to next week.

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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings

Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.

Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
Convective Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook
The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook
Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook

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