Written by Sig Silber
Updated at 6:50 pm EDT Saturday June 6, 2020 – “…Tropical Storm Cristobal to make landfall in Louisiana late Sunday and track into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday with heavy rain, strong wind gusts, coastal flooding, and isolated tornadoes possible……Strong low pressure system to generate severe thunderstorms across the northern Plains through Monday, extreme fire weather potential in southeast Colorado……The West cools off substantially with a chance for heavy snow in the northern Rockies, sizzling temperatures take hold of the Plains…”
This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.
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CONUS Focal Points
Short Range Focal Points
Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 350 PM EDT Sat Jun 06 2020 Valid 00Z Sun Jun 07 2020 – 00Z Tue Jun 09 2020
…Tropical Storm Cristobal to make landfall in Louisiana late Sunday and track into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday with heavy rain, strong wind gusts, coastal flooding, and isolated tornadoes possible…
…Strong low pressure system to generate severe thunderstorms across the northern Plains through Monday, extreme fire weather potential in southeast Colorado…
…The West cools off substantially with a chance for heavy snow in the northern Rockies, sizzling temperatures take hold of the Plains…
Cristobal continues its north heading this afternoon and has its sights set on the central Gulf Coast tomorrow. Landfall likely occurs somewhere along the coast of Louisiana late Sunday along with the threat of tropical storm force winds, torrential rainfall, potentially life-threatening storm surge, high surf, and tornadoes. Due to the storm’s broad and asymmetric characteristics, the worst impacts should set up along the storm’s eastern flank, making far eastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and southern Alabama most at risk for Cristobal’s worst impacts. Latest rainfall forecast call for 6+ inches in the Mississippi Delta and into southern Mississippi. Heavy rainfall extends as far east as the Florida where outer bands will generate heavy downpours. A Slight Risk for flash flooding is in place for much of northern and central Florida. Cristobal is forecast to head for the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday ushering very heavy rainfall and gusty winds into the region. Several inches of rain are on tap over eastern Farther north, guidance continues to hint at the development of a predecessor rain event over the portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest Monday evening with anywhere from 1 to 2 inches of rainfall possible.
Cristobal is not the only storm system in town as a potent upper trough swings through the western U.S. this weekend and into the start of the upcoming week. Severe weather is likely to set up shop in the northern High Plains and central Rockies this afternoon and evening thanks to a strengthening low pressure system in the Canadian Prairies. By Sunday, the storm’s warm sector moves over the Dakotas and western Minnesota where severe storms should develop in the afternoon and lasting into the evening hours. The cold front inches slowly east on Monday and will act as a catalyst for additional severe storms and heavy rainfall over the northern and central Plains. Despite the wetter pattern in the northern Plains look for dry, hot, and windy conditions in parts of the southern High Plains and Four Corners region are a recipe for a significant fire weather risk. The latest fire weather outlook through the remainder of the weekend include a critical risk from Arizona to Colorado with an extreme threat for fire weather in southeast Colorado on Sunday.
Temperature-wise, much cooler temperatures than both normal and recent weeks will engulf the West. Temperatures aloft will be cold enough to allow for accumulating snowfall in the Bitterroot and Sawtooth mountain ranges both Sunday and Monday. While parts of the Northwest witness wintry conditions, summer heat reigns over the High Plains where high temps in the 90s spread northward into the northern Plains by Sunday and the Upper Midwest on Monday ahead of the intensifying low pressure system. Farther south, triple digits high temps are likely across West Texas on Monday. Cooler and more comfortable temperatures arrive across the Northeast tonight with seasonally cool and less humid conditions on Sunday.
The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.
Thunderstorm Risk
This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation
Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.
The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.
Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.
Day One CONUS Forecast | Day Two CONUS Forecast |
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be | |
During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.
Temperature
Water Vapor.
This view of the past 24 hours provides a lot of insight as to what is happening. I changed the map to one that shows intensity. I think it may be relatively new. Not sure.
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Day 3 – 7 Hazards
– Heavy rain across portions of the Southeast, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Southern Plains, and the Tennessee Valley, Sun-Mon, Jun 7-Jun 8.
– Heavy rain across portions of the Central Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Northern Plains, the Tennessee Valley, the Great Lakes, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Southern Plains, and the Ohio Valley, Tue-Wed, Jun 9-Jun 10.
– Heavy rain across portions of the Southeast, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Tennessee Valley, Wed, Jun 10.
– Severe weather across portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Northern Plains, Sun, Jun 7.
– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Northern Plains, the Northern Rockies, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Mid-Atlantic, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Southeast, and the Great Lakes.
– Flooding likely across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley.
– Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Central Plains, the Northern Plains, the Central Rockies, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Southern Plains, Sun-Mon, Jun 7-Jun 8.
– Enhanced wildfire risk across portions of the the Central Plains, the Central Rockies, the Central Great Basin, the Southern Rockies, the Southern Plains, and the Southwest, Sun, Jun 7.
Detailed Summary:
The medium-range period (Sun Jun 7 – Thurs Jun 11) includes a threat for severe weather in the Northern Plains on Sunday. In addition, a very cool air-mass looks to engulf much of the West. Some of the higher elevations of the northern Rockies picking up measurable snow with locally heavy amounts possible both Sunday and Monday. Meanwhile the southern Rockies and central High Plains are at risk for an enhanced wildfire risk on Sunday due to brisk winds, very low humidity, and hot conditions. Speaking of the heat, parts of the Central Plains and Midwest will witness sweltering temperatures Sunday and Monday as heat indices surpass the century mark.
The period, however, is headlined by Cristobal as it makes landfall over the central Gulf Coast sometime late Sunday or early Monday. Heavy rain and potential strong-to-severe thunderstorms will accompany Cristobal into the Lower Mississippi Valley Sunday and into Monday. Rainfall totals could range between 2-5 inches with locally higher amounts. Even as far east as Florida, tropical moisture originating out of the western Caribbean is forecast to reach the Sunshine State. How much of the state deals with the potential for excessive rainfall could be determined by storm track and the southward progression of a cold front off the East Coast early next week. Rainfall totals in southern and central Florida could also range between 2-5 inches with locally higher amounts possible.
As Cristobal heads north around mid-week, a deep upper level trough over the Northwest will aid in the development of a jet streak across the North Central U.S. and southern Canada. The steady stream of moisture on the eastern flank of Cristobal may then interact with the frontal boundary over the Northern Plains that ushered in the cooler than normal temperature regime in the West.
This could set the stage for a predecessor rain event from the Dakotas to the Upper Midwest ahead of Cristobal. Several inches of rain could fall across the regions with excessive rainfall rates possible. The amount of rainfall stretching from the Mississippi Delta on up to the far reaches of the Upper Midwest could lead to additional river flooding that persists into late next week. Eventually, the remnant moisture from Cristobal and the frontal boundary over the Great Lakes mid-week will push east with the threat for heavy rainfall reaching the East Coast states by days 7-8, but totals and which areas are most heavily impacted are lower in confidence at this time.
Over Alaska, much warmer than normal temperatures across the northwestern part of the state with the potential for near threshold warmth over the northern-most regions. However, ice jam flooding remains a concern over the North Slope as rivers have yet to break up and minor snowmelt flooding is a possibility in south-central parts of the mainland. terrain-influenced/enhanced precipitation is expected to linger across southern Alaska, where wet snow is possible for the higher elevations. Precipitation amounts are not expected to be heavy. Fire potential remains low to moderate in southern Alaska due to the rain, but increased thunderstorm potential, particularly north of the Alaska Range, along thermal troughs running through mainland Alaska compounded by favorable fuels could produce a number of starts.
(This is updated only during the week) Note the first list is weather highlights, this list is hazards. Not sure there is that much of a difference but they come from two different parts of NOAA. The Day 3 – 7 Hazards List does not update on weekends. But it is still useful as it remains valid for the period of time it covers. Of course, all forecasts are subject to change. Later we show a map of the hazards. Perhaps we should show them together.
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.
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Ski Snow Reports
We will resume more detailed coverage when the summer is over.
We will update the above map weekly but more frequent updates can be obtained here.
There is not much snow left.
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Tropical Events
This is now beyond the time of the year we pay special attention to Tropical Events other than the Western Pacific.
So I am replacing the large with three small maps but you can click on them to get larger versions. Even though they are small maps you should be able to tell if there is activity and If I see activity I will make the map where there is activity full size.
the Central Pacific. | the Eastern Pacific | the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico |
Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.
And the Western Pacific
Week Tropical Forecast
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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast
And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).
First Temperature
And then Precipitation
For those interested in more detail, there are additional weather maps and information in the MORE WEATHER Addendum. The link to the Addendum is here. |
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Mesoscale Events
The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.
Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.
This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.
There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.
The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.
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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps
The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.
The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.
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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report
This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.
500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View
The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.
Day 3 Above, 6 Below | Day 4 Above,7 Below | Day 5 Above. |
Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3
Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5
Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7
Now we look at the forecast for the Maximum Temperature three days out.
Looking ahead to next week.
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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings
Current watches, warnings, and advisories issued by the agencies of the National Weather Service. Hazards should show up in the various maps but the below links will take you to all outstanding watches and warnings in each category which may include some categories not covered in the various maps or difficult to find. So if there is a category of interest, click on the appropriate link below. |
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Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.
Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.
Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event. | These maps are updated as risks are identified. |
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page. | |
Convective Outlooks | |
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This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online. | Today’s Outlook |
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. | Tomorrow’s Outlook |
This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. | Day 3 Outlook |
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point). | Day 4-8 Outlook |
The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent. | Thunderstorm Outlook |
Fire Weather Outlooks | |
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product. | Today’s Outlook |
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product. | Tomorrow’s Outlook |
This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product. | Day 3-8 Outlook |