Written by Sig Silber

Updated at 5:35 pm EDT Friday June 5, 2020 – “…Tropical moisture from Cristobal could cause heavy rainfall over the Gulf Coast and Florida ahead of landfall in Louisiana likely late Sunday……Scattered thunderstorms continue across parts of the eastern half of the U.S. through tonight……Increasing precipitation chances over the West with severe thunderstorms expected in the Northern/Central Plains over the weekend……Hot temperatures continue in the Plains while the West cools down dramatically…”

“There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and a Storm Surge Warning has been issued for those areas.”

This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.

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CONUS Focal Points

Short Range Focal Points

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 403 PM EDT Fri Jun 05 2020 Valid 00Z Sat Jun 06 2020 – 00Z Mon Jun 08 2020

…Tropical moisture from Cristobal could cause heavy rainfall over the Gulf Coast and Florida ahead of landfall in Louisiana likely late Sunday…

…Scattered thunderstorms continue across parts of the eastern half of the U.S. through tonight…

…Increasing precipitation chances over the West with severe thunderstorms expected in the Northern/Central Plains over the weekend…

…Hot temperatures continue in the Plains while the West cools down dramatically…

Cristobal has now restrengthened into a tropical storm, and is expected to track northward across the Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of days. Tropical moisture flowing ahead of Cristobal could cause downpours with storms particularly over the Florida peninsula tonight and into Saturday, with more widespread rain over the central and eastern Gulf Coast Saturday night and Sunday as Cristobal approaches. The tropical storm is currently forecast to make landfall Sunday evening in the central Gulf Coast of Louisiana. Please see the National Hurricane Center for additional and updated information on Cristobal.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected over the Eastern Seaboard back into the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley through tonight, where warm and humid air is present ahead of a cold front. Locally heavy rain is possible with storms, and the potential for flooding is greatest across portions of the northern Mid-Atlantic where soils are already moist. Additionally, a Slight Risk of severe weather is in place for the Lower Mississippi Valley today.

A potent upper-level low is forecast to track southeastward into the western U.S. over the next couple of days, while upper-level energy moves in from the subtropics as well. This and a frontal system at the surface will cause increasing precipitation chances mostly in the form of scattered thunderstorms through Saturday. Locally heavy rain is possible, with flash flooding not out of the question. Some snow is even possible, mostly in higher elevations of the Cascades and Northern Rockies, but snow  levels are expected to lower even over portions of the Great Basin Sunday. Farther east over the Northern/Central Plains, severe weather will be a threat both Saturday and Sunday, with Enhanced Risks of severe weather in place.

The West should see another warm day today, with critical fire danger, before quite a cooldown over the West Coast Saturday, pushing the fire danger to eastern Arizona/much of New Mexico/eastern Colorado. Cooler high temperatures of 15 to 30 degrees below average are forecast for the Great Basin Sunday as the upper trough continues moving eastward. Meanwhile, warm to hot temperatures will continue in the central U.S. over the weekend underneath upper-level ridging. The Plains could see high temperatures of 10 to 20 degrees above average, with highs in the 90s as far north as the Dakotas by Sunday.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Thunderstorm Risk

This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.

The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.

Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.

Temperature

Water Vapor.

This view of the past 24 hours provides a lot of insight as to what is happening. I changed the map to one that shows intensity. I think it may be relatively new. Not sure.

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Day 3 – 7 Hazards

– Heavy rain across portions of the Central Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Northern Plains, the Tennessee Valley, the Great Lakes, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Southeast, the Southern Plains, and the Ohio Valley, Mon-Tue, Jun 8-Jun 9. – Heavy rain across portions of the Southeast, the Mid-Atlantic, the Southern Appalachians, and the Tennessee Valley, Wed-Thu, Jun 10-Jun 11.

– Flooding possible across portions of the Southeast, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Northern Rockies.

– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Northern Plains, the Northern Rockies, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Mid-Atlantic, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Southeast, and the Great Lakes.

– Flooding likely across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley.

– Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Great Lakes, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Southern Plains, and the Upper Mississippi Valley, Mon-Tue, Jun 8-Jun 9.

– Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Northern Plains, Mon, Jun 8.

– Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Northeast and the Great Lakes, Tue-Wed, Jun 9-Jun 10.

– Enhanced wildfire risk across portions of the the Central Plains and the Southern Plains, Mon, Jun 8.

Detailed Summary:

The medium-range period (Mon Jun 8 – Fri Jun 12) is headlined by Cristobal as it makes landfall over the central Gulf Coast sometime late Sunday or early Monday. Heavy rain and potential strong-to-severe thunderstorms will accompany Cristobal into the Lower Mississippi Valley Sunday and into Monday. Rainfall totals could range between 2-5 inches with locally higher amounts. Excessive rainfall and flash flooding is a good bet, especially in parts of the region where soil moisture remains overly saturated. Some flooding could be significant and life threatening in localized areas. In addition to the rainfall, tropical storm force wind gusts could cause problems in parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley in addition to any lingering coastal flooding along the central Gulf Coast.

As Cristobal heads north around mid-week, a deep upper level trough over the Northwest will aid in the development of a jet streak across the North Central U.S. and southern Canada. The steady stream of moisture on the eastern flank of Cristobal may then interact with the frontal boundary over the Northern Plains that ushered in the cooler than normal temperature regime in the West. This could set the stage for a predecessor rain event from the Dakotas to the Upper Midwest ahead of Cristobal. Several inches of rain could fall across the regions with excessive rainfall rates possible. The amount of rainfall stretching from the Mississippi Delta on up to the far reaches of the Upper Midwest could lead to additional river flooding that persists into late next week.  Remnant moisture from Cristobal and the will push east with the threat for heavy rainfall reaching the southern Appalachians late week where the threat for flash flooding could take shape. Even parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast could witness heavy rainfall totals by week’s end, but totals and which areas are most heavily impacted are lower in confidence at this time.

Temperature-wise, the period looks to be a hot one some with much of the abnormal warmth front centered on Monday and Tuesday. The Midwest can expect heat indices ranging between 90-100 degrees on Monday with locally hotter conditions possible. The same 90s heat index regime will stick around the Great Lakes both Monday and Tuesday before advancing into northern New England mid-week. A cooler air-mass will arrive first in the Midwest on Wednesday and work its way into the Great Lakes the second half of the week. Farther south, The Lone Star State also will contend with very hot conditions. Heat indices in south-central Texas will surpass the century mark on Monday with the hottest conditions arriving on Tuesday. High temperatures in the Rio Grande Valley could soar as high as 110 degrees. Central and eastern Texas can expect an oppressively humid air-mass that  combined with high temps in the triple digits, will make for heat indices reaching a sizzling 105-115 degrees. A cold front will usher in a more seasonally warm air-mass the second half of the week.

Over Alaska, much warmer than normal temperatures look to continue across the northwestern part of the state with the potential for near threshold warmth over the northern-most regions. However, ice jam flooding remains a concern over the North Slope as rivers have yet to break up and minor snowmelt flooding is a possibility in south-central parts of the mainland. Terrain-influenced/enhanced precipitation is also expected to linger across southern Alaska, where wet snow is possible for the higher elevations. Precipitation amounts are not expected to be excessive through the period. Fire potential remains low to moderate in southern Alaska due to the rain, but increased thunderstorm potential, particularly north of the Alaska Range, along thermal troughs running through mainland Alaska compounded by favorable fuels could produce a number of starts.

(This is updated only during the week) Note the first list is weather highlights, this list is hazards. Not sure there is that much of a difference but they come from two different parts of NOAA. The Day 3 – 7 Hazards List does not update on weekends. But it is still useful as it remains valid for the period of time it covers. Of course, all forecasts are subject to change. Later we show a map of the hazards. Perhaps we should show them together.

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.

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Ski Snow Reports

We will resume more detailed coverage when the summer is over.

We will update the above map weekly but more frequent updates can be obtained here.

There is not much snow left.

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Tropical Events

This is now beyond the time of the year we pay special attention to Tropical Events other than the Western Pacific.

So I am replacing the large with three small maps but you can click on them to get larger versions. Even though they are small maps you should be able to tell if there is activity and If I see activity I will make the map where there is activity full size.

the Central Pacific.	the Eastern Pacific	the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico

Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.

And the Western Pacific

Week Tropical Forecast

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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).

First Temperature

And then Precipitation

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Mesoscale Events

The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.

Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.

This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.

There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps

The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

Now we look at the forecast for the Maximum Temperature three days out.

Looking ahead to next week.

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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings

Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.

Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
Convective Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook
The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook
Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook

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