Written by Sig Silber

Not that the COVID-19 Pandemic needs any help, but it seems that the weather is not ideal in terms of decreasing the economic impact of the Pandemic. Tonight we focus on meat production. We could easily have selected the oil and gas industry or many other sectors of the U.S. economy. Market mechanisms are being impacted. We have begun to provide the expanded crop reports that are made available this time of the year. And of course, we have our full set of regular weekly reports that focus on the latest NIDIS Drought Report. We provide a 28-day weather forecast where the first 14 days update daily.

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Directory

Special Topics for this Week

Southwest Climate Podcast

Click to listen: It is worth it.

There are two topics.

A. Possible impacts of Climate on COVID-19 and

B. The recent climate of the the Southwest.

With respect to Topic A, here is the paper that is discussed.

But the authors of the podcast has a lot to say about the Southwest Climate

The Meat Industy.

Normally I would show this at the end of report but I hear a lot of reports of ranchers in trouble and high prices at the grocery story so I thought I would feature these two reports.

First from this Livestock Slaughter Report.

This just provides more detail.

And then from this Cattle on Feed Report.

I do not know if it is new but NOAA is touting the ability to generate a wide range of climate graphics. I wish I could embed their Dashboad in this article but I have no idea how to do that but you can go here to access it.

The below is just an example of the type of temperature graphic that you can easily generate.

Here is one for precipitation.

The general link is this but for Temperature this might get you where you want faster and for precipitation, this might work faster.

The LA Times might want to bookmark those links to avoid publishing silly articles. Does either of those graphics indicate the Southwest has been in a MegaDrought?

Water Supply Issues

It is also useful to look at the last seven days.

Here is a side by side comparison

This is an up to date map of snow depth. It is up-to-date when published but it does not auto-update but you can obtain updates Here.

Current Drought Conditions

Now we take a look at Thursday’s U.S. Drought Monitor Report.

The U.S. Drought Monitor is a comprehensive way of understanding the drought situation for the U.S. It is issued every Thursday and reflects the conditions as of the prior Tuesday. Drought is defined as a moisture deficit bad enough to have social, environmental or economic effects. Thus, more factors than recent precipitation are considered and more information on how it is done is found at the end of this report.

U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

And this shows the U.S. including Alaska, Puerto Rico, and Hawaii.

Below is the map for just CONUS.

Last Week	This Week

Some might find this animation of twelve weeks of change useful;

The graphic below shows the one-week change in drought intensity. Yellow is bad. Green is good.

Now we show the week to week change information by region. The yellow is where the level of drought has been raised. The green is where the level of drought has been lowered.

Colorado is degraded, Kansas is degraded, and North Dakoda is degraded.

Some Degradation in Minnesota and Michigan.

No Change

Mostly improvement along the Gulf Coast. Some degradation in West Texas in the Panhandle of Texas leaking into Oklahoma.

Degradation in South Florida but improvement in North Florida/South Georgia and Alabama.

Mostly degradation except for the Southern Tier. The Northwest was dry as was Eastern Colorado, Idaho and Montana.

Here is the Discussion that was issued with the Drought Report. The Regional Headings can be clicked on to obtain maps and statistics.

This Week’s Drought Summary

A very active precipitation pattern impacted areas of the South into the Southeast over the last week. As with the recent storm paths, the areas along the Gulf Coast were again in an unfavorable position in which some areas did see rains, but the dryness continued. A spring snow event tracked through the Plains and into the Midwest, bringing with it a mix of rain and snow. Temperatures were cooler than normal over almost the entire CONUS region with only the coastal regions of the West and Florida being above normal for temperatures. Departures were greatest over the Midwest, where temperatures were 12-15 degrees below normal.

Northeast

The region has been drought-free, and conditions remain favorable for the pattern to continue. Temperatures were 4-8 degrees below normal in New England and 8-12 degrees below normal through Pennsylvania, western New York and into West Virginia. The region was mostly dry for the week with some areas of Pennsylvania, New York and southern New England recording above-normal precipitation.

Southeast

Temperatures were below normal for most of the region outside of Florida where departures were 3-9 degrees below normal for the week. In Florida, temperatures were near normal in the north and 6-9 degrees above normal in central and south Florida. As with the last several weeks, the greatest precipitation was recorded over central Alabama and Georgia, where 200-400% of normal was observed. Portions of northern Florida were impacted by two rain events this week, with up to 200% of normal precipitation for the week. South Florida and areas along the Gulf Coast of Alabama were drier than normal with far south Florida recording less than 5% of normal precipitation for the week.

Midwest

Cooler than normal temperatures dominated the region, with departures of 12-16 degrees below normal observed. The region was mostly dry this week with only areas of southern Iowa and the northern extent of lower Michigan recording above-normal precipitation with some late-season snow mixed into totals. Portions of central Illinois and Indiana as well as central Michigan and western Minnesota have had some dryness developing over the last several months. Abnormally dry conditions were introduced into Michigan and Minnesota this week. Most areas are welcoming the dry weather as agricultural activity has been increasing with expedited fieldwork with the favorable conditions.

High Plains

The region was also cooler than normal for the week, with departures of 8-12 degrees below normal over most of the region. The region was mostly dry for the week, with only areas of eastern Kansas and southeast Wyoming above normal. Similar to what has been observed in the Midwest, the dry conditions have been favorable for early fieldwork in the agricultural sector as well as calving. There have been many discussions about the dryness in northern Kansas and southern Nebraska, but so far, no real issues are developing. Eastern Colorado and southwest Kansas remain the hot spots for drought. New areas of abnormally dry conditions were introduced over most of western North Dakota into northwest South Dakota this week. Northeast South Dakota also had a pocket of abnormally dry conditions introduced. A new area of abnormally dry conditions was introduced in portions of northern Kansas and southern Kansas. The dry areas are being discussed extensively by the local experts, who are monitoring the situation closely.

South

Much of the region was dry, especially in portions of Texas and Oklahoma and southern Louisiana. The big exception was Mississippi, central Louisiana, and into east Texas where up to 400% of normal precipitation was again recorded this week. Cooler than normal temperatures helped to offset the dryness as most areas were 6-12 degrees below normal for the week. In response to the short-term dryness, abnormally dry conditions and moderate drought were expanded over portions of the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles with a couple of new pockets of abnormally dry conditions in western Oklahoma into Texas. The abnormally dry conditions were expanded over west Texas while a reassessment of conditions in south Texas led to improvements and the removal of exceptional drought in the region. Mostly status quo was maintained along the Gulf Coast of Texas, where some improvements were made, but a new severe drought pocket popped up along the coast. Improvements were made to the abnormally dry conditions in Louisiana and Mississippi in response to the rain, and even some severe drought was improved in southern Louisiana. The coastal regions remain dry and will continue to be monitored.

West

Cooler than normal temperatures dominated the region, with departures of 9-12 degrees below normal over the Rocky Mountains and 3-6 degrees below normal over the Southwest and into the Great Basin. Temperatures were near normal to 3-6 degrees above normal over most of California, Oregon, and Washington. Some pockets of precipitation in the region were observed, but this was mostly a dry week over much of the area. In response to the continued dryness, a new area of extreme drought was introduced this week in northern California and southwest Oregon. These areas are experiencing widespread impacts to the agricultural sector as well as those systems not impacted by or benefiting from stored water. Drought areas expanded in and intensified over much of Oregon while abnormally dry conditions expanded over western Washington. Due to the good late-season snowpack in Idaho and western Montana, some areas of abnormally dry conditions were improved this week. Southern Idaho showed degradation this week with drought areas expanding and abnormally dry conditions spreading into southwest portions of the state. Far northeast Montana did see abnormally dry conditions spread south this week. A new area of severe drought was introduced into central Utah with an expansion of moderate drought conditions as well, while severe drought was expanded over most of southern Colorado and into northern New Mexico.

Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico

In response to a recent wetter pattern and the indicators showing improvement, a full category improvement was made on Molokai this week, eliminating severe drought and reducing moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions on the western areas of the island. No changes were made this week for Alaska or Puerto Rico.

Pacific Islands

Tropical convergence and convection continued across the southern portions of Micronesia during this USDM week (4/15/20-4/21/20) while a seasonally dry trade-wind pattern continued across the northern portions. An active Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and trade-wind convergence brought the precipitation to eastern parts of the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) and southern parts of the Marshall Islands (RMI). Several surface troughs, with embedded weak circulations, migrated westward across central to western FSM and the Republic of Palau. A diffuse shear line and weak disturbances moving in the trade-wind flow brought limited showers to the Marianas. South of the equator, the Samoan Islands were bracketed by convergence and instability, although a weak surface trough brought moisture and instability to American Samoa part of the week.

Satellite-based estimates of 7-day precipitation (QPE) captured the precipitation from the surface troughs and ITCZ between the equator and 10 degrees North latitude stretching from the central FSM eastward far beyond the Date Line. The convection also stretched southeastward from the FSM toward and past the Samoan Islands as the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). The QPE showed areas of 1+ inches of rainfall across the FSM and southern RMI, with embedded 4+ inches of rain. The showers over the Marianas were too small and of limited nature to be detected well by the satellite QPE, so little to no precipitation was indicated for the Marianas. The QPE also showed little to no precipitation over the northern RMI. The Samoan Islands were bracketed on the QPE by bands of 1+ inches of rain with embedded 2+ inch areas.

After 6 consecutive weeks of rainfall totals below the 2-inches weekly threshold to meet most water needs, Koror, Palau had 3.19 inches of rain during this drought week. The monthly total for March was only 4.66 inches and 4.11 inches for April so far. Low precipitation totals the last few weeks and high water consumption resulted in water rationing across Aimeliik and Ngerchelong. However, mandatory water conservation is still in effect across the nation. According to the NWS drought information statement released on 16 April 2020, the vegetation is stressed and wildfires have occurred on the big island of Palau. For this week, Palau remains in moderate drought (D1-S).

Dry conditions persisted this week across the Marianas. Guam had the most rainfall this week at 0.50 inch, while Rota and Sapian had only 0.10 inch and 0.07 inch of rain, respectively. Drought classifications for Guam (D2-S) and Rota (D2-S) were unchanged as this marked the second consecutive month with precipitation totals less than half the monthly threshold of 4 inches to meet most water needs. However, April marks Saipan’s sixth consecutive month with precipitation totals less than the threshold of 4 inches to meet most water needs, with five of those months receiving less than 2 inches of rain. For this reason, Saipan’s drought classification remains in extreme drought, however, it was changed to short- and long-term drought (D3-SL).

The Federated States of Micronesia eastern islands of Kapingamarangi, Pohnpei, Pingelap, and Kosrae remained drought free as they received 2 inches of rain or more this week and their monthly rainfall total for April was over 8 inches.

Meanwhile, the western islands of Yap (0.49 inch), Ulithi (0.30 inch), Woleai (0.68 inch), and Chuuk Lagoon (1.91 inches) remained in drought as they had less than their weekly threshold of 2 inches to meet most water needs. According to the NWS drought information statement released on 16 April 2020, vegetation and crops have been stressed and wildfires have occurred across Yap. Extreme drought remained across Yap, while severe drought was present across Ulithi and Woleai. Even though Chuuk Lagoon had close to 2 inches of rain this week, moderate drought remained for another week. If sufficient rain falls next week, one category drought improvement might be considered for Chuuk.

Lukunoch had 1.53 inches of rain this week, close to the 2-inches weekly threshold to meet most water needs. However, the monthly rainfall total for April is 4.24 inches. Abnormally dry conditions remain for another week across Lukunoch.

This week Nukuoro had 5.19 inches of rain, resulting in a monthly total for April of 9.33 inches. Since March’s total precipitation was 17.40 inches and April is above the monthly threshold of 8 inches, drought free conditions were introduced this week.

After four consecutive weeks of little rain, Ailinglapalap had 3.05 inches of rain this week. The monthly precipitation totals from February through April have been less than 4 inches, which is less than the 8-inches threshold to meet most water needs. For this reason, Ailinglapalap remains in moderate drought. Kwajalein has had dry conditions since the start of the year. This week Kwajalein had 1.36 inches of rain, however, the monthly rainfall is only 4.30 inches. Severe drought persisted this week in Kwajalein.

With little to no rain this week, Utirik and Wotje continued to be in extreme drought as their April monthly rainfall total was 2.91 inches and 2.34 inches, respectively. These values are way below the monthly 8-inches threshold to meet most water needs.

Even though precipitation fell across Majuro this week, leaving a total of 1.98 inches of rain, abnormally dry conditions continued to affect Majuro since reservoir levels were at 71% of maximum capacity (as of April 17), below the 80% critical threshold.

Mili and Jaluit continued to be drought free since they received over 2 inches of rain this week and have over 8 inches for the month so far.

Drought free conditions persisted across Tutuila this week as precipitation totals were close to or above the 1-inch weekly threshold across Pago Pago, Siufaga Ridge, and Toa Ridge.

Virgin Islands

Dry conditions continued to affect the USVI this week, with all stations analyzed having little to no rain. St. Thomas had no rain this week and its monthly precipitation total (as of April 21) was 0.28 inches or 17.3% of normal precipitation. St. John had only 0.01 inch of rain this week and 0.04 inch of rain for the month as of April 21. SPI values at the 1 month for St. Thomas and St. John were -1.67 and -2.11, respectively, typically indicative of extreme and exceptional drought conditions. However, the 3, 6, 9, and 12 month SPI indicated drought free conditions. However, due to the persistent dry conditions the last few weeks and local observations stating that conditions are really dry, abnormally dry conditions were introduced in St. Thomas and St. John this week.

St. Croix had no rain at the airport, while the CoCoRaHS station had only 0.09 inch of rain. The monthly precipitation total at the airport was 0.39 inch or 31.0% of normal precipitation, while the year-to-date was at 119.5%. SPI values at 1, 6, 9, and 12 months were indicative of moderate to extreme drought. For this week, abnormally dry conditions persist this week. If dry conditions persist next week, moderate drought classification might be considered for St. Croix.

Looking Ahead

active storm pattern, with the greatest precipitation expected over the Lower Mississippi Valley, into the Ohio River Valley and into the Southeast, including Florida. Some coastal precipitation is expected over portions of Washington and into Oregon, but most of the rest of the West is not anticipating much precipitation. Temperatures during this time will be cooler than normal over the East and especially the Northeast, where departures will be in the range of 9-12 degrees below normal. The West and Southwest are anticipated to be the warmest with departures of 9-12 degrees above normal.

The 6-10 day outlooks show a higher probability of drier than normal conditions over much of the West and into the Plains and Southeast as well as Alaska. In contrast, there is a higher probability of wetter than normal conditions over the Midwest and Northeast. Temperatures during this time show that the greatest probability of warmer than normal temperatures is over the Southwest with much of the western half of the United States having a greater likelihood of warmer than normal temperatures. Much of the Midwest, the Northeast, the Mid-Atlantic and eastern Alaska have the best chances of recording below-normal temperatures, with the highest probabilities in the Northeast.

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And then Precipitation

Here is the discussion that was released with the Week 3 – 4 forecast today. We do this because we believe that when considering the economic impacts of weather one needs to look ahead more than 14 days.

Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Experimental Precipitation Outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2020

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat May 09 2020-Fri May 22 2020

The transition toward a colder regime over much of the CONUS that began in early April continues this week. The Week-2 model solutions depict persistent anomalous troughing lingering over the northeastern CONUS through the extended range period. The background climate outlooks issued for May and the May-Jul season depict a warming trend over the Northeast and continued warmth relative to normal over the southern and western CONUS. The Weeks 3-4 outlook exists in between the high- and low-frequency climate periods, and in many ways represents a transition from the current amplified pattern to the expected low-frequency climate state. ENSO (which is neutral) continues to play little to no role in the Weeks 3-4 outlook. The MJO is more interesting, since by some metrics a long-duration MJO event has been ongoing since at least March. However, this event is on the very fast side of the MJO sptectrum, with convectively coupled Kelvin waves interspersed. Dynamical model guidance suggests continued eastward propagation of the enhanced signal across the Indian Ocean, constructively interfering with an equatorial Rossby wave. Therefore, the MJO plays a small role in the current forecast, though the extratropical response in May is generally weak.

The temperature and precipitation outlooks closely follow a skill-weighted blend of the dynamical and statistical models. The ECMWF receives a slightly higher weighting than the other models, though the statistical MLR model, accounting for long-term trends, ENSO, and MJO, receives the second highest weight. The forecast 500-hPa height pattern that falls out of this weighting scheme depicts a low-amplitude pattern over the Pacific-North America domain, with weakly positive height anomalies centered over the eastern CONUS and barely anomalous trouging centered near and just off the West Coast. Forecast 500-hPa heights over Alaska are slightly above normal, with anomalous ridging centered near the pole. Slightly negative height anomalies are forecast over the far northwestern Atlantic, creating an anomalous northerly component to the upper level wind over New England and eastern Canada. Analysis of the 200-hPa anomalies from the ECMWF reveal a preference for a residual ENSO-type pattern anchored in the deep Tropics, as well as a PNA-type pattern over the North Pacific. The latter is also favored by the NMME for the monthly and seasonal forecast, suggesting good continuity across timescales.

Above-normal temperatures are favored over much of the southern CONUS, with a notable weakness indicated from the Carolinas westward to Texas and Oklahoma. This is consistent with above-normal soil moisture as well as forecast above-normal precipitation. Additionally, the ECMWF depicts residual cooling along the East Coast that continues into the Week-3 period. The MJO and long-term trends support a warmer solution across most of the central and eastern CONUS, but this is muted by the dynamical guidance that depicts a cooler solution across the northern tier of the CONUS. The models are in reasonable agreement on the weakness centered across parts of the Rockies and Southwest, with the best odds of below-normal temperatures confined to parts of High Plains and northern Rockies. The forecast circulation pattern favors a slight tilt toward below-normal temperatures across New England and is supported by the dynamical guidance on average.

The precipitation outlook over the eastern half of the CONUS follows quite nicely from the forecast height anomaly pattern. The forecast anomalous ridge axis is centered over the Mid-Atlantic and Great Lakes. West (east) of that axis above-(below-)normal precipitation is favored. The dynamical and statistical models diverge over parts of the Southeast, with the statistical guidance favoring more of a northward shift in anomalous rainfall. The final forecast then is consistent with the skill-weighted blend, and leads to a broad area with slightly enhanced chances of above-normal precipitation. The various model guidance is in good agreement on below-normal precipitation over much of the interior West. Equal chances is depicted for areas over the Southwest and California where the climatological median two-week precipitation is zero.

Above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation are favored over western Alaska, underneath forecast anomalous ridging. The forecast anomalies are low-amplitude, leading to fairly modest probabilities of the favored category. Only a slight tilt toward above-normal temperatures is indicated over the North Slope, where long-term trends are strong but dynamical guidance tilts toward below-normal temperatures.

Positive sea surface temperature anomalies support increased chances of above normal temperatures throughout the Hawaiian Islands. Model guidance supports slightly elevated probabilities of below normal precipitation for Hawaii.

Some may find the below way of looking at things useful and I hope these graphics are not too small to read. I did not make them so you could click on them individually but you can click on the whole graphic and it may enlarge. But I think you get the picture. It has been a rapid onset and demise. When you read these graphics, remember that the older graphics are not the drought conditions that existed then but the change from then until now.

Let’s focus on the change between March 24, 2020 and April 21, 2020, i.e. one month.

Focusing on the Intermountain West

Drought Forecasts

These two forecasts (Monthly and Season) are issued by the same agency but to obtain them you need to access two different links here and here.

Here is the Three-Month Forecast which was issued on March 19, 2020

Here is the Monthly Drought Outlook which was updated on March 30, 2020.

Floods

Floods remain a concern.

Last Week	Current Week

Wildfires

Our usual graphic is not updating so we have deleted it. Bu updates from this source can be found here.

Current Wildfire Risk. This is a new model that updates daily by NOAA (but not automatically in this article) to show the short-term risk.

Click here to update. Red is high risk, blue is low risk. This graphic updates daily but you have to click on the link provided to get the updates More information can be found here.

This explains the model a bit.

The below graphics are monthly risk estimates for Wildland Fire Potential. They update monthly.

Looking out another month.

Surface soil conditions

Subsurface Soil Conditions

Crop and Animal Husbandry Progress. USDA Executive Briefings can be found here (there was an Executive Briefing this week and we presented it). NASS reports can be found here. Foreign Intelligence reports can be found here.

There were a lot of NASS reports this week and we did not have time to prepare them for publication. This shows the major reports scheduled. Most are NASS Reports. We reported on one of them.

It is the time that NOAA starts showing crop progress. The data is pretty thin at this point.

International

A map helps and is not always available but fortunately, it was available this week.

Major Sources of Information

In the box are shown the major resources we use. We will not be using them all each week but the reader is welcome to refer to these resources.

Background Information

The sequence of drought occurrence and impacts for commonly accepted drought types. All droughts originate from a deficiency of precipitation or meteorological drought but other types of drought and impacts cascade from this deficiency. (Source: NDMC)

Source: National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska-Lincoln

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