Written by Sig Silber

Updated at 7 pm EDT April 23, 2020 – “…Severe thunderstorm and flash flood threats will linger across the Southeast into early Friday morning……Severe thunderstorms and heavy rain possible from the Arklatex into the Mid-Mississippi River Valley on Friday……Record heat possible on Friday across southern Texas and the Southwest while conditions remain favorable for wildfires from western Texas into parts of New Mexico and Arizona.”

This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations. We include a Ski Report.

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Short Range Focal Points

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2020 Valid 00Z Fri Apr 24 2020 – 00Z Sun Apr 26 2020
…Severe thunderstorm and flash flood threats will linger across the Southeast into early Friday morning…
…Severe thunderstorms and heavy rain possible from the Arklatex into the Mid-Mississippi River Valley on Friday…
…Record heat possible on Friday across southern Texas and the Southwest while conditions remain favorable for wildfires from western Texas into parts of New Mexico and Arizona.
A storm system moving through the Tennessee Valley and Southeast will continue an ongoing threat for severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, large hail and severe straight-line winds mainly near and south of a warm front which extends through Georgia into the western Atlantic. Deep moisture from the Gulf of Mexico combined with favorable winds aloft will combine over the Southeast into Florida. Thunderstorms with this system will likely push offshore of the East Coast by early Friday morning but will linger across central to northern Florida into Friday afternoon. Up north, a cold rain can be expected for the northern Mid-Atlantic region into the Northeast before the cold front moves offshore for Friday night.
Meanwhile, another storm system will be moving across the U.S., tracking from the Intermountain West into the Midwest early Friday morning into Saturday evening. While the deepest moisture will remain south of the front pushing offshore of the East Coast into Florida, sufficient dynamics aloft and a modest moisture return to the north will favor another round of potentially severe thunderstorms across the Arklatex on Friday/Friday night. This is where the Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms. The greatest threat for heavy rain and flash flooding extend north of the severe thunderstorm risk with a Marginal Risk of flash flooding covering the Arklatex through the Mid-Mississippi River Valley for Friday into early Saturday.
While cooler than average temperatures will persist for the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes and Northeast, record heat will be possible for southern California, southern Arizona and southern Texas. Forecast highs on Friday will be anywhere from the upper 80s to the low 100s. An Elevated to Critical threat is forecast by the Storm Prediction Center on Friday from southeastern Arizona into central and southern New Mexico as well as portions of western Texas given low relative humidities and gusty winds.

Click here for the latest complete NWS/WPC Short Range Discussion. (Sometimes we provide part of or even the full discussion above and you can tell because it goes beyond the bullet points. We do that when we think the bullet points do not provide enough information. But the link just provided always takes you to the full discussion with updates twice a day and sometimes we are a bit late updating the bullet points so that link will get you there. You can tell if we are late by the time of the stamped update. This time of the year, NOAA does the updates at around 3 a.m. and 3 p.m. EST. We try to do the updates in our article as close to that as possible but it is not always possible.)

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Or for the Day 2 Fire Outlook click here. For the Day 3 – 8 Fire Outlook click here.

Thunderstorm Risk

This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.

The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.

Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast

These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.

Temperature

Water Vapor.

This view of the past 24 hours provides a lot of insight as to what is happening.

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Day 3 – 7 Hazards

– Heavy precipitation across portions of the Pacific Northwest and the Northern Great Basin, Sun-Mon, Apr 26-Apr 27.
– Heavy precipitation across portions of the Northeast, Sun, Apr 26.
– Heavy rain across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Southern Plains, Tue, Apr 28.
– Heavy rain across portions of the Northeast, the Central Appalachians, the Mid-Atlantic, the Southern Appalachians, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley, Wed-Thu, Apr 29-Apr 30.
– Heavy rain across portions of the Mid-Atlantic, the Northeast, and the Central Appalachians, Sun, Apr 26.
– Flooding possible across portions of the Northern Plains.
– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Northern Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Southeast, and the Southern Plains.
– Flooding likely across portions of the Southeast and the Tennessee Valley.
– Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Central Plains, the Central Rockies, the Central Great Basin, the Northern Plains, the Southern Plains, the Northern Great Basin, the Southern Rockies, California, the Northern Rockies, the Pacific Northwest, and the Southwest, Sun-Thu, Apr 26-Apr 30.
– Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Northeast, the Central Appalachians, the Tennessee Valley, the Mid-Atlantic, the Southern Appalachians, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley, Sun-Mon, Apr 26-Apr 27.
– High winds across portions of the Alaska Panhandle, Sun-Wed, Apr 26-Apr 29.
– High winds across portions of the Aleutians, Tue-Wed, Apr 28-Apr 29.
Detailed Summary:
The medium-range period (Sun, Apr 26 to Thurs, Apr 30) in the West is headlined by a strong ridge of high pressure centered over the Southwest. A dome of much above normal temperatures will engulf the Desert Southwest, California, the Great Basin, and the Four Corners throughout the period. High temperatures are forecast to soar into the triple digits in portions of the Desert Southwest Sunday and continue into next week, making it the region’s first heat wave of the season. By mid-week the warmest temperatures versus normal are forecast to be located over California and the Great Basin. To the north, a steady stream of Pacific moisture will be aimed at the Pacific Northwest. The heaviest round of precipitation looks to arrive Sunday evening and continue into Monday as a frontal system passes through the region. The primary precipitation type will be rain but some heavy higher elevation snowfall in the Cascades is also possible.
Further east, a series of upper level troughs will rotate through the eastern half of the Lower 48. An upper level feature exiting the Rockies will track east and deepen while doing so. The storm will head for the central Appalachians late Saturday and by Sunday, a coastal low will form off the East Coast making for a wet, dreary, and gusty Sunday across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. The prolonged fetch of Atlantic moisture has led to model guidance keying in on an area of heavy rain over southern New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic, but there are still some discrepancies on exact placement of heaviest rainfall due to differences in storm track. To the north, the higher elevations of New England are likely to contend with periods of snow while lower elevations see rain. An area of heavy precipitation remains in place over parts of the northern Appalachians for Sunday. Additionally, the signal for yet another upper level trough ushering in more unsettled weather across the eastern half of the country mid-week is coming into focus. The threat for heavy rain and thunderstorms should develop over the Lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Heavy showers and strong thunderstorms could also transpire in the Mid-South late Tuesday. There could also be an area of heavy rain across the Upper Mississippi Valley and into the Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday, but confidence in heavy rainfall totals and where they take place is low at this time.
As the storm tracks into the Great Lakes mid-week, periods of rain will advance up the East Coast including the potential for heavy rain from the central Appalachians to the Northeast.
Over Alaska, temperatures will remain cooler than normal for most of the mainland but not cold enough to trigger a much below normal temperature area. To the south, a pair of occluded storm systems will slam into the Panhandle both this weekend and the first half of the week. Plenty of precipitation is in the forecast but precipitation rates are not forecast to become excessive at this time. Should trends become wetter, there may be a need for a heavy rain or precipitation area in the future forecasts. However, high winds along the Panhandle coast are possible Sunday and potentially into Monday as well. As yet another storm system approaches mid-week, yet another period of strong winds will arrive in roughly the same area. Out west, a powerful upper low in the northwest Pacific may reach the Aleutians as early as Tuesday and generate strong winds, specifically in the western most islands.

(This is updated only during the week) Note the first list is weather highlights, this list is hazards. Not sure there is that much of a difference but they come from two different parts of NOAA. The Day 3 – 7 Hazards List does not update on weekends. But it is still useful as it remains valid for the period of time it covers. Of course, all forecasts are subject to change. Later we show a map of the hazards. Perhaps we should show them together.

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.

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Ski Snow Reports

New Feature – Ski Reports. It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every GEI Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.

We will update the above map weekly but more frequent updates can be obtained here.

Snow Forecasts.

Day 1

Day 2

Additional snow information can be found here and here.

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Tropical Events

This is now beyond the time of the year we pay special attention to Tropical Events other than the Western Pacific.

So I am replacing the large with three small maps but you can click on them to get larger versions. Even though they are small maps you should be able to tell if there is activity and If I see activity I will make the map where there is activity full size.

the Central Pacific.	the Eastern Pacific	the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico

Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.

And the Western Pacific

Week Tropical Forecast

This graphic updates on Tuesdays

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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).

First Temperature

And then Precipitation

For those interested in more detail, there are additional weather maps and information in the MORE WEATHER Addendum. The link to the Addendum is here.

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Mesoscale Events

The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.

Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.

This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.

For the Day 2 Outlook click here. For Day 3, click here. For Days 4 – 8 click here. An explanation of the risk codes used can be found here.

There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.

Or for the Day 2 Fire Outlook click here. For the Day 3 – 8 Fire Outlook click here.

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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps

The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

In and of itself Atmospheric Rivers are not a definitive predictor of extreme weather but it shows where concentrated “rivers” of moist air are forecast to be impacting North America and that is part of the equation for severe weather.

This view provides a better view of the Northeast, the Antilles and also Europe.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

The above is the day by day projected pattern of highs and lows for Day 3 through 7. Earlier we show the pattern for Days 1 and 2.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5

This represents five days of precipitation rather than three days as shown in the earlier graphic.

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

The areas that have cumulative seven-day precipitation increase. You can see where QPF is accumulating.

Now we look at the forecast for the Maximum Temperature three days out.

Looking ahead to next week.

Usually, nothing shows in this graphic for the following week as it is usually too far out to be forecasting severe weather. But this experimental graphic auto-updates. And further information is available here.

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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings

Current watches, warnings, and advisories issued by the agencies of the National Weather Service. Hazards should show up in the various maps but the below links will take you to all outstanding watches and warnings in each category which may include some categories not covered in the various maps or difficult to find. So if there is a category of interest, click on the appropriate link below.

Winter Storm Warning
High Wind Warning
Storm Warning
Avalanche Warning
Coastal Flood Warning
Flood Warning
High Surf Warning
Flash Flood Watch
Gale Warning
Winter Weather Advisory
Flood Advisory
Coastal Flood Advisory
High Surf Advisory
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning
Dense Fog Advisory
Small Craft Advisory For Hazardous Seas
Small Craft Advisory For Rough Bar
Small Craft Advisory
Brisk Wind Advisory
Hazardous Seas Warning
Lake Wind Advisory
Wind Advisory
Rip Current Statement
Gale Watch
Winter Storm Watch
Flood Watch
High Wind Watch
Special Weather Statement
Air Quality Alert
Hydrologic Outlook

Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.

Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Convective Outlooks
Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook

This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook

This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook

This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook

The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook

Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook

This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook

This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook