March 21, 2020 Weather Impacts On Economic Activity – Are Weather And COVID-19 Related?

Written by Sig Silber

Some viruses are and some are not. We are not ready to address that question for COVID-19 so we will focus tonight on the Cotton situation in Mexico. But we are tracking the literature on that issue and making our own observations as well. We will also spend some time on the slowly evolving drought in the West. Of course, we have our full set of regular weekly reports that focus on the latest NIDIS Drought Report and the USDA crop reports. We provide a 28-day weather forecast where the first 14 days update daily.

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Directory

Special Topic for this Week

Cotton in Mexico

Current U.S. Snowpack

It is useful to look at the last seven days.

Here is a side by side comparison

Here is an up to date map of snow depth.

Current Drought Conditions

Now we take a look at Thursday’s U.S. Drought Monitor Report.

The U.S. Drought Monitor is a comprehensive way of understanding the drought situation for the U.S. It is issued every Thursday and reflects the conditions as of the prior Tuesday. Drought is defined as a moisture deficit bad enough to have social, environmental or economic effects. Thus, more factors than recent precipitation are considered and more information on how it is done is found at the end of this report.

U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

And this shows the U.S. including Alaska, Puerto Rico, and Hawaii.

Below is the map for just CONUS.

Last Week	This Week

Some might find this animation of twelve weeks of change useful;

The graphic below shows the one-week change in drought intensity. Yellow is bad. Green is good.

Now we show the week to week change information by region. The yellow is where the level of drought has been raised. The green is where the level of drought has been lowered.

No Change

No Change

Dry from North Jersey to Rhode Island.

Degradation along the Gulf Coast. Improvement north and west of the degradation

Degradation in South Florida and South Alabama more or less the Gulf States. Very similar to last week.

Fairly mixed. You can see an area of dryness the seems to be where the two branches of the jet stream did not deliver much precipitation.

Here is the Discussion that was issued with the Drought Report. The Regional Headings can be clicked on to obtain maps and statistics.

This Week’s Drought Summary

The U.S. Drought Monitor week ending March 17 saw another round of winter storms, bringing above normal precipitation to parts of the northern High Plains, Southwest, southern plains, and Tennessee Valley. Many areas recorded totals that exceeded 200% of normal over the seven-day period, leading to improvements to areas of abnormal dryness and drought in areas where the excess moisture erased deficits and improved soil moisture and streamflow. Once again, precipitation over the Northwest and Gulf Coast states was below normal with most areas having received less than 50% of their normal amount over the last 30 days. The lack of precipitation, combined with warmer than normal temperatures, led to expansions in pockets of abnormal dryness and drought.

Northeast

While much of the northeast received precipitation last week, totals in southern and coastal New England continued to be below normal, further contributing to deficits of 6-plus inches over the last 90 days. The lack of rain and snow combined with unseasonable warmth – with many stations reporting mean temperatures in the top five on record over the last month, low streamflow values, and low groundwater levels — led to the introduction of a swath of D0 (abnormal dryness) from eastern Massachusetts southward to northern New Jersey. According to local media reports, the dry conditions combined with high winds contributed to brush fires in eastern Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and southeast New York.

Southeast

The general pattern of rain in the northern tier of the region and dry weather in the south continued again last week. Much of the Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachia received amounts in the range of 0.5 to 3 inches, while regions near the Gulf coast had little to no rainfall. Changes to this week’s map include small expansions of D0 (abnormal dryness) in southern Alabama, the extreme western Florida Panhandle, and the central and southern Florida Peninsula as rainfall shortages in these have reached about 3 to 4 inches over the last 30 days, drying soils and lowering streamflow. Should they miss out on next week’s forecast rainfall, areas to watch for deteriorating conditions include Virginia and northern North Carolina where moisture deficits are beginning to build.

South

Last week, a band of heavy rainfall fell across the northern half of the region, extending from West Texas to western Tennessee with amounts ranging from 1 to more than 4 inches (equivalent to more than 300% of normal in some locations). In southwest Oklahoma and northeast Texas, the excess moisture erased short-term precipitation deficits and recharged streamflow leading to reductions in D0 (abnormal dryness) and D1 (moderate drought). Additionally, the “S” was removed from the “SL” drought designation to indicate that drought and dry conditions are now only present at timescales longer than six months. With over an inch of rain falling after the close of the Drought Monitor week (Tuesday, 8:00 AM EDT) and more expected on the way, additional reductions may take place on next week’s map. Other areas seeing improvements include West Texas with reductions to D0 and D1. Unfortunately, the rain missed the parts of south Texas that need it most and conditions continued to deteriorate, resulting in expansions to ongoing areas of abnormal dryness and drought and the introduction of D4 (exceptional drought). Supporting data include rainfall deficits of 2 to 8 inches (25 to 50% of normal) over the last six months combined with mean temperatures consistently ranking in the top 10 warmest over the same time interval. The combination of dry weather and high temperatures has dried out soils and stressed vegetation with USDA reporting only 28% of topsoil as adequate for crops in the southeast and 3% in the southwest. Other areas seeing deterioration this week include southwest Louisiana and southeast Mississippi with expansions in D0.

Midwest

The Midwest remains free of any drought or abnormal dryness. While Missouri and Kentucky saw precipitation totals in excess of 150% of normal, the rest of the region received amounts near or slightly below normal continuing a drying trend that began in February. In general, the relatively dry weather has been welcome, enabling producers to begin field work. Soil moisture and streamflow levels remain high from 2019’s record-breaking precipitation and a wet January.

High Plains

The map’s drought depiction is unchanged this week in the High Plains. A winter storm during March 13-14 brought snow to the west and central parts of the region and rain to locations in the south and east. The Black Hills saw the highest totals, reporting from 6 to 12 inches of snow while portions of western and central South Dakota and Nebraska reported several inches of accumulation. Dry conditions continue to persist in the drought and abnormally dry areas in eastern Colorado, western Kansas, and southwest Nebraska where less than 0.50 inches of precipitation (about 50% of normal or less) has fallen so far this month. As we transition to normally wetter conditions in the spring, hopefully this area will begin to see relief from the deficits that have built over the last six to 12 months.

West

February’s dry spell over California finally broke as a late winter storm brought heavy showers to southern California and over 2 feet of snow to the Sierra Nevada. In southern California, the excess rainfall improved soil moisture and streamflow levels leading to reductions in areas designated as D0 (abnormally dry) or D1 (moderate drought). Despite the rain and snow, the maps depiction remained unchanged for the majority of the northern two-thirds of the state. Water year-to-date precipitation is more than 12 inches below normal (50% of normal or less) in the Sierras and the north coastal and north central regions. Soil moisture and streamflow values remain low and satellite based indicators of vegetation health continue to show stress across the Central Valley. Extreme northern California and southern Oregon missed out on the heavy precipitation further deteriorating drought conditions and leading to the expansion of D1 and introduction of D2 (severe drought). The Oregon state drought coordination team noted increasing water supply concerns in this region as many locations show record low streamflow values, declines in groundwater, and low reservoirs. Other changes in Oregon include minor improvements D1 areas in the west-central and eastern parts of the state where heavy precipitation fell. Having missed out on last week’s precipitation, Nevada and Utah both saw and expansion of D0 in the north. Further south, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches helped erase precipitation deficits, replenish soil moisture, and improve streamflow in southern Nevada, southwest Utah, and northwest Arizona resulting in reductions in D0, D1, and D2. Drought depictions in Washington, Idaho, Montana, Colorado, and New Mexico were left status quo.

Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico

After last week’s improvements, Alaska remains free of abnormal dryness and drought. Above normal precipitation and snowpack has left the state in good shape heading into the drier summer months. In Hawaii, heavy rain events in progress at the close of the Drought Monitor week brought widespread flash flooding across the entire state and set a daily rainfall record in Honolulu, prompting the removal of the D0 (abnormal dryness) introduced on Oahu last week. With rain continuing the remainder of the week, additional improvements may be warranted on next week’s map. Near to above normal precipitation continued this week across the majority of Puerto Rico. After last week’s removal of D0, the island remains free of any dryness on the map.

Pacific Islands

Synoptic Summary:

The weather conditions across the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) during this USDM week (3/11/20-3/17/20) consisted of a dry subtropical trade-wind regime which dominated western Micronesia and the northern Marshall Islands (RMI) contrasted against convection associated with the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) across southern portions of Micronesia. This is a typical synoptic pattern for this time of year when the North Pacific subtropical high dominates in the north and the ITCZ stays near the equator. In fact, March is the driest month of the year for the Marianas, Yap, and the Marshall Islands beneath the dominance of the North Pacific High. This week, the ITCZ was manifested by surface troughs, trade-wind convergence, and a couple disturbances and weak circulations. One of the circulations brought rain to the very dry regions of Chuuk State right at the end of the week. South of the equator, a ridge dominated the weather over American Samoa while a surface trough stayed to the south. On the last day of the week, remnants of a tropical system spread some limited moisture across the islands.

Satellite-based estimates of 7-day precipitation (QPE) showed areas of 2+ inches of rain across southern portions of the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) and the RMI, with a band of 2+ inches stretching northward across Chuuk State. The QPE gradient dropped off sharply towards the north and west where very little to no rain was depicted. A similar pattern was evident in the Southern Hemisphere with 2+ inches of rain indicated south of the Samoan Islands and very little over American Samoa.

Palau:

In the Republic of Palau, the last 2 weeks have been dry (less than the 2-inch weekly minimum needed to meet most water needs) at Koror, with 0.09 inch recorded this week and only 1.50 inches of rain so far this month. But with February wet and 3 weeks ago wet, D0-S continued for Palau.

Marianas:

Dry conditions continued in the Marianas, with rainfall totals well under the weekly minimum (1 inch). Dededo and Tinian received about a third to half of an inch of rain this week, but a tenth of an inch or less was observed at Guam (0.10), Saipan (0.06), and Rota (0.06). Conditions were variable across Guam and Saipan, with vegetation quite dry and cracks forming in the clay in the southern parts of Guam, but vegetation was still green in central areas; conditions were similar on Saipan. Many fires have developed on Guam in the southern mountains, and the Keetch Byram Drought Index (KBDI) reached 684 by March 17, which is in the high fire danger category. D2-S continued on Saipan and D1-S continued on Guam. With the last six consecutive weeks dry, D0-S was worsened to D1-S on Rota.

Federated States of Micronesia:

In the FSM, Fananu has been missing for several months, so this station could not be analyzed. Some eastern and southern stations had a wet week (more than the 2-inch weekly minimum), with 4.06 inches of rain reported at Kosrae, 5.56 inches at Kapingamarangi, 3.50 inches at Chuuk, 2.58 inches at Pohnpei, 2.63 inches at Lukonor, and 2.00 inches at Pingelap. It was a dry week at the rest of the stations, with rainfall reports ranging from 0.73 inch at Woleai to 0.01 inch at Ulithi and no measurable rainfall at Yap and Nukuoro as of March 17. With a wet week and wet February, D-Nothing continued at Kosrae and Pohnpei. Reports of low water levels in the tanks prompted the introduction of D0-S at Pingelap. With measureable rain falling on 6 of the 7 days this week, the 5.56 inches of rain received at Kapingamarangi this week raised the monthly total to 6.46 inches and changed the D0-S status to D-Nothing. Woleai has had the seventh driest March (based on data received so far in the month) and fifth driest January-March; these translate to the 15th to 19th percentiles, which rank in the D1 category, so D1-S continued for Woleai. With the last 3 consecutive weeks very dry, and only 0.42 inch of rain received so far this month, the status was worsened to D1-S at Ulithi. At Yap, the last 11 consecutive weeks have been dry, and both January-February and January-March ranked as the fourth driest, so the status was worsened to D2-S.

In Chuuk State, reports have been received from municipalities in the Northwest and in the Mortlocks of rain water catchments becoming exhausted and deep wells running low or drying up or having brackish water. Crops and vegetation in the Mortlocks (PiisEmwar and Namoluk) are suffering – some coconuts do not have juice, some food crops and vegetation have leaves turning yellow, and taro patch leaves are turning yellow. A weak circulation and associated surface trough moved over Chuuk State right at the end of this USDM week, dropping rain which helped to refill water catchments, but the agricultural impacts continued. Over 3 inches of rain was reported for the week at Chuuk (3.50 inches) and over 2 inches was measured at Lukonor (2.63). As of March 17, the date of this week’s USDM, no rain was observed at Nukuoro for the week, but heavy rains were on the horizon and expected in the next 24 hours. Since the USDM depicts drought conditions as of the date of the report, those upcoming rains could not be considered for the depiction at Nukuoro for this week. The previous 5 weeks were dry at Chuuk, and Nukuoro had the third driest February-March and second driest January-March (through March 17). Even though Lukonor had 2.63 inches of rain this week, March (3.77 inches) is still below monthly minimums (for this point in the month), February-March 2020 ranked as the third driest February-March, and January-March ranked second driest on record. The status at Nukuoro was worsened to D1-S, Lukonor was kept at D1-S, and Chuuk was kept at D0-S – to reflect the lingering agricultural impacts.

Marshall Islands:

Southern stations in the Marshall Islands had a wet week (above weekly minimums), while it continued dry in the north. With 1 or 2 days missing at some stations, more than 2 inches of rain was reported at Majuro (3.49), Mili (2.56), Ailinglapalap (2.05), and Jaluit (2.06). The rain raised Majuro’s reservoir level, but (at last report) it was still below the 80% threshold for concern. And, in spite of this week’s rain, March was still mostly below monthly minimums (for halfway through), so D0-S continued for Jaluit, Majuro, Ailinglapalap, and Mili. Less than an inch of rain fell at Kwajalein (0.67). With month-to-date totals continuing dry, and the previous 3 months dry, D1-S returned to Kwajalein. Utirik had two-thirds of an inch of rain this week, while Wotje had none. March-to-date totaled only 1.31 inches at Utirik, so D2-S continued. According to reports from Wotje, water tanks were almost empty and vegetation was starting to turn brown. Based on these reports, and no measureable rain at all for March so far, the USDM status at Wotje was worsened to D3-S.

American Samoa:

In American Samoa, Pago Pago reported over an inch of rain (1.24), while one to two tenths of an inch was measured at the automated stations at Siufaga Ridge (0.12) and Toa Ridge (0.17). With the previous week wet and February very wet, D-Nothing continued at Tutuila.

Virgin Islands

Synoptic Summary:

Tropical storms and hurricanes are a main source of rain for the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI). With the North Atlantic hurricane season running from June through November, the winter half of the year is the dry season. In fact, March is the driest month of the year. The weather pattern across the USVI during this USDM week (3/11/20-3/17/20) consisted of mid- to upper-level troughs which created instability that gave rise to showers. Moisture was provided by an old frontal boundary at the beginning of the week, with northeast trades bringing moisture into the region later in the week. These troughs were interrupted by a drier air mass at mid-week. The showers were mostly light.

Radar-based estimates of rainfall for the 7 days ending at 12z on Tuesday depicted areas of half an inch of rain over the northern islands with less than a half inch over the southern islands.

St. Croix:

The Hamilton/Henry Rohlsen AP had half an inch (0.50) of rain this week (through March 17), while the Christiansted 1.8 ESE CoCoRaHS station measured 0.26 inch, the Christiansted 4.1 ESE CoCoRaHS station measured 0.21 inch, and the UVI station reported 0.30 inch (some days were missing for these last 3 stations). The station at East Hill reported 0.37 inch for the week and 0.96 inch for the month, or 133% of normal for the month. The Henry Rohlsen AP monthly total of 1.02 inches is 126% of normal. The St. Croix USGS Adventure 28 well has been steadily dropping since mid-February, and is much lower than a year ago. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values for Hamilton and East Hill were normal to wet for the last 1 to 3 months, but significant dryness (D1 to D3 level dryness) still lingered at longer time scales (6 to 12 months). In light of the low groundwater level and lingering long-term dryness, D1-L continued for St. Croix.

St. Thomas:

The Cyril E King AP station reported 0.42 inch of rain for this week, with a month-to-date total of 1.21 inches which is 164% of normal. The year-to-date total is 6.16 inches with a departure of +1.61 inches or 135% of normal. The Anna’s Retreat 2.5 ESE CoCoRaHS station reported 0.23 inch of rain for the week and 1.00 inch for the month. The St. Thomas USGS Grade School 3 well has been going up and down during the last 4 months, rising the past week, and is higher than a year ago. The SPI values for King were near normal to wet at most time scales, and only slightly below zero (but not at drought or abnormal dryness levels) at the 6-month time scale. The USDM status for St. Thomas continued at D-Nothing this week.

St. John:

On St. John, the station at Windswept Beach reported 0.32 inch of rain for the week (through March 16) with 1.39 inches for the month so far and 9.32 inches for the year (which is 154% of the long-term average). The St. John USGS Susannaberg DPW 3 well level has been steadily dropping since the end of January 2020, but is still above where it was at the end of 2019. The SPI values for Windswept Beach were near normal to wet at most time scales, and only slightly below zero (but not at drought or abnormal dryness levels) at the 6-month time scale. The USDM status for St. John continued at D-Nothing on this week’s map.

Looking Ahead

The National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center forecast for the remainder of the week shows a winter storm developing east of the Rockies and tracking northeast across portions of the north and central Plains into the Upper Midwest. This storm is expected to bring heavy snow to the southern and central Rockies with a swath of light to moderate snow extending from Nebraska northeast into Minnesota and Wisconsin. A cold front associated with the storm system is forecast to trigger showers and thunderstorms from the southern plains into the Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee valleys. Temperature are expected to be below normal by 10 to 20 degrees across California into the Central Great Basin and Southwest. Meanwhile, the Gulf Coast states and Ohio and Tennessee valleys can expect temperatures 3 to 6 degrees above normal. The Central Plains should see large temperature swings as the system passes through. Moving into next week, the Climate Prediction Center six to 10 day outlook (valid March 22-26) favors below normal temperatures for much of the western half of the CONUS, especially near the West Coast, near normal temperatures east of the Mississippi, near normal temperatures in the Midwest and Northeast, and above normal temperatures for states along the Gulf and Southeast Coasts. The precipitation outlook favors an active storm track and above normal amounts for nearly the entire CONUS. Probabilities are highest for California, parts of the Great Basin, and the Tennessee and Ohio valleys.

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And then Precipitation

Here is the discussion that was released with the Week 3 – 4 forecast today. We do this because we believe that when considering the economic impacts of weather one needs to look ahead more than 14 days.

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Apr 04 2020-Fri Apr 17 2020

Tropical conditions currently project onto the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) with convection over the Indian Ocean. Dynamical models predict eastward propagation of the MJO signal in the next week, however, most dynamical model forecasts indicate the MJO signal will quickly weaken following this period. At longer timescales, convection remains enhanced near and west of the Date Line and suppressed over the Maritime Continent, related to above average sea surface temperatures across the western and central Pacific Ocean. Seasonal variability of the equatorial atmospheric circulation continues to indicate ENSO-neutral conditions. Absent a clear tropical climate signal, the Week 3-4 Outlook relies primarily on dynamical model forecasts from the ECMWF, NCEP CFS and JMA operational ensemble prediction systems, as well as the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) multi-model ensemble (MME) of several operational and experimental ensemble prediction systems. A multiple linear regression (MLR) statistical forecast based on regressions of ENSO and MJO indices onto temperature and precipitation, as well as decadal timescale trends, was consulted despite the dynamical model forecasts of a short-lived propagation of the MJO signal and current ENSO-neutral conditions.

All dynamical model forecasts are consistent in predicting a large positive 500-hPa height anomaly stretching from eastern Asia into the western North Pacific and a strong negative 500-hPa height anomaly to the north over the Arctic. Most model forecasts for the week 3-4 period, including the ECMWF and NCEP CFS operational ensembles and the SubX MME, predict troughing and weak negative 500-hPa height anomalies downstream of the amplified ridge over the western North Pacific over the Pacific Coast of North America. The predicted circulation pattern is similar to forecasts for week 2. However, disagreement among various dynamical model forecasts and increasing uncertainty leads to very weak negative 500-hPa height anomalies over the Pacific coast and western CONUS in a blend of the CFS, ECMWF and JMA model forecasts for the week 3-4 period. The ECMWF and CFS ensemble prediction systems and the SubX MME predict positive 500-hPa height anomalies centered over the northern central CONUS. A blend of the CFS, ECMWF and JMA model 500-hPa height forecasts indicates very weak positive anomalies from the Rocky Mountains to the Great Lakes, the Mid-Atlantic states, and the Southeast CONUS. A trough and negative 500-hPa height anomalies are forecast over the Northeast and the North Atlantic by a consensus of models. The JMA height forecast over the CONUS predicts a trough over the interior west and a ridge over the east, in contrast to the CFS, ECMWF and SubX circulation forecasts, and was given less weight in the blend of models used in the Week 3-4 outlook.

The Week 3-4 temperature outlook indicates below normal temperatures are most likely for most of Alaska from the southern coast into the Alaska interior, as indicated by most dynamical model forecasts, including the CFS, ECMWF, JMA and SubX MME, under anomalous northerly flow around the the ridge centered over Asia and the western North Pacific. Above normal temperatures are likely for the North Slope of Alaska, as indicated by the CFS and several models of the SubX model suite, consistent with decadal temperature trends. Below normal temperatures are likely along the Pacific Coast of the CONUS, under predicted weak negative 500-hPa height anomalies, while above normal temperatures are likely east of the Rocky Mountains for the week 3-4 period, under predicted positive 500-hPa height anomalies. Probabilities of above normal temperatures exceed 60 percent from parts of the Great Plains into the Southeast region and decrease to less than 55 percent over the Northeast, under predicted weak negative 500-hPa height anomalies in the blend of model forecasts. The MLR temperature pattern forecast for North America is somewhat consistent with the consensus of current dynamical model forecasts, associated with both decadal trends and the current phase of the MJO.

The Week 3-4 precipitation outlook predicts likely above median precipitation for parts of Alaska from the central west coast into the Alaska interior, associated with enhanced onshore flow north of the predicted positive 500-hPa height anomaly. Below median precipitation is likely for much of the Pacific Northwest, under anomalously weak onshore flow, in agreement with the ECMWF model and SubX MME forecasts. As a predicted ridge extends across the central CONUS and a trough is predicted to be centered over the North Atlantic in the consensus of model forecasts, below median precipitation is likely in a large area stretching from eastern Oklahoma across the Central Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the eastern Great Lakes region, the Mid-Atlantic, and the Northeast. Above median precipitation is indicated in the Week 3-4 Outlook from southern Texas across much of the Gulf Coast region into parts of the Carolinas and Florida, as indicated by a strong precipitation signal in the SubX MME forecast and to a lesser extent in a MME of the calibrated CFS, ECMWF and JMA model forecasts.

SST anomalies surrounding the Hawaiian Islands are slightly above normal leading to a forecast of likely above normal temperatures for the week 3-4 period. Dynamical model guidance, including the SubX MME, CFS, JMA, and ECMWF forecasts, indicates slightly enhanced probabilities for above normal temperatures, and enhanced probabilities of above median precipitation across Hawaii.

Some may find the below way of looking at things useful and I hope these graphics are not too small to read. I did not make them so you could click on them individually but you can click on the whole graphic and it may enlarge. But I think you get the picture. It has been a rapid onset and demise. When you read these graphics, remember that the older graphics are not the drought conditions that existed then but the change from then until now.

Let’s focus on the change between February 11, 2020 and March 10, 2020, i.e. one month.

Focusing on the Intermountain West

Drought Forecasts

These two forecasts (Monthly and Season) are issued by the same agency but to obtain them you need to access two different links here and here.

Here is the Three-Month Forecast which was issued on March 19, 2020

Here is the discussion which was released with the new Drought Forecast.

Tools used in the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for April 2020 and April-May-June (AMJ) 2020, various short-range and medium-range forecasts and models, such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), the Weeks 3-4 outlooks and tools from CPC, dynamical models at the monthly and seasonal time scales, climatology for the AMJ season, snow cover, soil moisture, streamflow values, and initial conditions. Despite a low-frequency tilt towards above-normal sea surface temperatures in the vicinity of the Date Line, ENSO conditions are favored to remain neutral during the boreal spring and summer seasons.

Over the past four weeks, moderate drought (D1) developed over a large portion of the Pacific Coast states, with the most rapid degradation over northern California. The gradual expansion of drought conditions was predicted on the prior seasonal drought outlook due to below-average precipitation during the core of the wet season. Reservoir levels across California that were well above-average at the beginning of the water year due to abundant snowpack the previous winter have decreased considerably, although they remain close to the historical average. Current snow water content values across the Sierra Nevadas and southern Cascades are below 75 percent of normal, despite an uptick in late season precipitation over the past two weeks. Snowpack conditions are better across the northern Cascades, although drought has expanded across Washington east of the range due to decreasing soil moisture. The wet pattern is favored to continue over the next two weeks, with QPF values from the latest WPC 7-day outlook of 3 to 4 inches over the highest elevations of the Sierras. While this precipitation in concert with unseasonably cold temperatures will provide a late boost the mountain snowpacks, these accumulations are likely insufficient to overcome the deficits that developed during the core of the wet season. Climatological precipitation decreases rapidly during the Spring from south to north across the West Coast, and the CPC seasonal outlook favors below-median precipitation during AMJ, which limits the potential for further relief beyond the next two weeks. Therefore, continued slow expansion of drought is favored for northern California, Oregon, and central Washington, albeit with reduced confidence compared to last month. The short term precipitation across southern California may be sufficient to delay further drought expansion through the end of June. Further east, unseasonably heavy precipitation across southeastern New Mexico eased drought conditions, while long term drought persisted across the Four Corners region. Further drought improvements are favored for northeastern New Mexico as climatological precipitation increases during AMJ, while persistence is the most likely outcome for the Four Corners region with the core monsoon season falling beyond the end of the outlook period.

Forecast confidence is low to moderate for the Western Region.

Drought conditions over the High Plains are limited primarily to Colorado and western Kansas, as an active storm pattern brought widespread heavy precipitation to the central Great Plains, and the Northern Plains have been in winter dormancy. River flooding is likely to be a bigger concern than drought during the Spring across the Great Plains. Over the next week, abundant Pacific moisture will bring heavy snows to the central Rockies. As Spring progresses, climatological precipitation increases substantially across the Plains with the core severe thunderstorm season as Gulf moisture penetrates further northward. The AMJ seasonal outlook slightly favors below-normal precipitation across the central Rockies, but maintains equal-chances for below-, near- and above-median precipitation across the Plains. Therefore, persistence is favored for western Colorado, while drought improvement is anticipated across eastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas due to a wetter climatology.

Forecast confidence is moderate for the High Plains Region.

A sharp precipitation gradient was evident across the Southern Region during the Winter, with abundant moisture easing drought across north-central Texas and saturating soils further east across the Tennessee Valley contrasting with pronounced dryness across South Texas and the Gulf Coast. Short term drought intensified rapidly across southern Texas, where a small region of exceptional drought (D4) emerged on the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. The short-term forecast closely mirrors the pattern that was observed previously, with soaking rains forecast over the next week extending from eastern Texas through the Tennessee Valley that largely miss far South Texas and the north-central Gulf Coast. This short term rainfall may bring some relief to the northern and eastern drought areas of Texas, but little improvement is likely for South Texas until climatological precipitation increases in late Spring. The CPC AMJ outlook favors below-average precipitation for western Texas. Based on these outlooks, drought persistence is the most likely outcome for South Texas, with some improvements further north and east. This is a highly uncertain forecast, as periods of rainfall during May could improve the drought situation, while any lack of rainfall would spark a return of drought to areas that were ameliorated early in the outlook period.

Forecast confidence is low for the Southern Region.

The precipitation gradient mentioned in the above discussion for the Southern Region extended eastward into the Southeast Region, with 90-day precipitation accumulations exceeding 200 percent of normal across the Piedmont regions contrasting with below-average rainfall across most of northern and central Florida. Below-average precipitation was also observed across northern Virginia, which is a southward extension of a dry signal across the Northeast that will be discussed in the next section. April is a dry time of year for Florida, as cold fronts fail to penetrate that far south and the seabreeze driven wet season begins later. Given the pronounced winter dry signal following an abnormally hot Fall, a Spring drought ahead of the summer thunderstorms is quite likely across much of the state. Therefore, development is indicated on this outlook, even though the seasonal outlook tilts slightly towards above-median rainfall. Once the seabreeze convection regime begins in late May and June, the drought conditions will likely ease, but drought impacts from April may linger through much of the outlook period.

Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the Southeast Region.

No drought is currently in place across the Northeast Region, but widespread abnormal dryness (D0) has begun to develop, extending from eastern Pennsylvania through southeastern New England. 90-day precipitation amounts were well below-normal extending from northern Virginia through eastern and central New England, and 28-day average streamflow values were generally below-normal as well. Drying brush and topsoils have resulted in scattered brushfire activity. Additionally, snow cover is notably absent across much of the Northeast, with deep snow cover currently limited to Maine and the higher elevations of the Adirondack, Green and White Mountains. This reduces a typical source for Spring recharge in addition to new precipitation. Based on these factors, the Northeast is vulnerable to drought development should there be a period of abnormally warm or dry weather during the next several months. Confidence for drought development is low, however, due to a fairly generous precipitation climatology and a slight tilt towards above-median precipitation favored by the CPC seasonal outlook. Therefore, while drought development has the potential to be more extensive than indicated on the outlook, the most likely area for development shown is across southeastern Massachusetts, where precipitation deficits are the largest.

Forecast confidence is low for the Northeast Region.

Drought conditions have gradually eased across Hawaii. The CPC seasonal outlook favors above-median precipitation during the period. Therefore, continued drought reduction is the most likely outcome. There is no current drought indicated on the USDM for Alaska and Puerto Rico, and drought is not favored to develop through the end of June.

Forecast confidence is high for Hawaii.

Here is the Monthly Drought Outlook which was updated on February 29, 2020 and it will be updated on March 30, 2020 and we will report on it then.

Floods

Floods remain a concern.

Last Week	Current Week

Wildfires

Our usual graphic is not updating so we have deleted it. Bu updates from this source can be found here.

Current Wildfire Risk. This is a new model that updates daily by NOAA (but not automatically in this article) to show the short-term risk.

Click here to update. Red is high risk, blue is low risk. This graphic updates daily but you have to click on the link provided to get the updates More information can be found here.

This explains the model a bit.

The below graphics will update automatically on February 1 or so. So ignore the commentary for the time being. We will update it shortly.

Looking out another month.

Crop and Animal Husbandry Progress. USDA Executive Briefings can be found here (there was no Executive Briefing this week). NASS reports can be found here. Foreign Intelligence reports can be found here.

There were a lot of NASS reports this week and we did not have time to prepare them for publication. This shows the major reports scheduled. Most are NASS Reports. We report on some of them.

International

A map helps and is not always available and fortunately, it was available this week.

Major Sources of Information

In the box are shown the major resources we use. We will not be using them all each week but the reader is welcome to refer to these resources.

Background Information

The sequence of drought occurrence and impacts for commonly accepted drought types. All droughts originate from a deficiency of precipitation or meteorological drought but other types of drought and impacts cascade from this deficiency. (Source: NDMC)

Source: National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska-Lincoln