Written by Sig Silber
Updated at 6:05 pm Sunday March 22, 2020 – “…Periods of rain in portions of Southern California and heavy snow in the central Sierra Nevada today, heavy snow accumulations possible in the higher elevations of the Northwest early week………Coastal storm may produce heavy rain in the Northeast megalopolis, heavy snow in the northern Appalachians……West Coast system to track into the Heartland late Monday and Tuesday, severe weather and heavy rain possible in the Plains and Mississippi/Ohio Valleys…”
This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations. We include a Ski Report.
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CONUS Focal Points
Short Range Focal Points
…Periods of rain in portions of Southern California and heavy snow in the central Sierra Nevada today, heavy snow accumulations possible in the higher elevations of the Northwest early week……
…Coastal storm may produce heavy rain in the Northeast megalopolis, heavy snow in the northern Appalachians…
…West Coast system to track into the Heartland late Monday and Tuesday, severe weather and heavy rain possible in the Plains and Mississippi/Ohio Valleys…
Starting in Southern California, a wave of low pressure will approach from the west causing showers and thunderstorms to move ashore this evening. Rainfall rates could approach one inch per hour around the Los Angeles metro area. As a result, a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall is in place for the city and neighboring suburbs. The threat for flash flooding extends as far north as the southern suburbs of the Bay Area. Further inland, snow is likely to fall in the southern Sierra Nevada with over 8 inches possible in the highest elevations. As this storm system moves est on Monday, an upper level trough will enter the fray over the Pacific Northwest leading to coastal/valley rain and mountain snow through mid-week. The higher elevations of the Cascades and Sierra Nevada may be measuring snowfall by the foot into the middle of the week.
Switching coast lines, showers and thunderstorms tracking through the Ohio Valley this afternoon will head for the eastern Great Lakes and northern Mid-Atlantic tonight while an area of low pressure strengthens near the North Carolina Outer Banks Monday morning. As the storm intensifies off the DelMarVa coast Monday afternoon, periods of rain will develop along and east of I-95. Rain will fall heavily at times from New Jersey to southern New England where rainfall amounts in excess of 2 inches are possible. Farther north, cold air remains entrenched in the northern Appalachians causing precipitation to fall as snow. The Poconos, Catskills, Adirondacks, Berkshires, Green and White mountains will all have the potential to receive over 8 inches of snow resulting in various winter related watches and warnings/advisories being issued through Tuesday morning. The storm will be fast moving and drier conditions will return across the Northeast some time Tuesday morning.
While one storm exits, the storm system impacting southern California this evening will track through the Four Corners region on Monday with spotty valley showers and mountain snow possible. By Monday night, a developing area of low pressure in the lee of Rockies will form and additional showers and thunderstorms will form over the Central Plains. A Slight Risk for severe weather is in place for parts of the region late Monday. This storm system will then head for the mid-Mississippi Valley Tuesday night with periods of rain and thunderstorms breaking out across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. The threat for severe weather will also move east into the Mid-South on Tuesday.
Click here for the latest complete NWS/WPC Short Range Discussion. (Sometimes we provide part of or even the full discussion above and you can tell because it goes beyond the bullet points. We do that when we think the bullet points do not provide enough information. But the link just provided always takes you to the full discussion with updates twice a day and sometimes we are a bit late updating the bullet points so that link will get you there. You can tell if we are late by the time of the stamped update. This time of the year, NOAA does the updates at around 3 a.m. and 3 p.m. EST. We try to do the updates in our article as close to that as possible but it is not always possible.)
This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation
Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.
The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.
Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.
Day One CONUS Forecast | Day Two CONUS Forecast |
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be | |
During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.
Temperature
Water Vapor.
This view of the past 24 hours provides a lot of insight as to what is happening.
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Day 3 – 7 Hazards
– Heavy precipitation across portions of the Olympic Peninsula, Fri, Mar 27.
– Heavy rain across portions of the coastal section of New Jersey, Long Island and southeastern New England, as well as across the Mid-Mississippi Valley through the southern Appalachians, Mon-Tue, Mar 23-Mar 24.
– Heavy rain from the Mid-Mississippi Valley through much of the Ohio Valley into the southern Appalachians, Fri, Mar 27.
– Heavy snow along the southern Cascades, Mon-Tue, Mar 23-Mar 24 and Fri, Mar 27.
– Heavy snow along the northern Cascades, Thu-Fri, Mar 26-Mar 27.
– Heavy snow along much of the Sierra Nevada, Mon-Tue, Mar 23-Mar 24.
– Heavy snow from across the higher elevations of western Wyoming down into northern Utah, Tue, Mar 24.
– Heavy snow across portions of central Idaho, Mon, Mar 23.
– Severe weather across portions of the southern Plains, Mon, Mar 23.
– Flooding possible across portions of the Mid-Mississippi Valley, the southern Plains, and the Upper Midwest.
– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the lower and middle Mississippi Valley, scattered locations in the northern and southern Plains, and a couple of areas in the Southeast.
– Flooding likely across portions of the central and southern Plains, as well as the middle Mississippi Valley.
– Heavy snow across portions of the Alaska Range, Mon-Tue, Mar 23-Mar 24.
– Much above normal temperatures for much of northwestern and northern Alaska, Mon-Wed, Mar 23-Mar 25.
(This is updated only during the week) Note the first list is weather highlights, this list is hazards. Not sure there is that much of a difference but they come from two different parts of NOAA. The Day 3 – 7 Hazards List does not update on weekends. But it is still useful as it remains valid for the period of time it covers. Of course, all forecasts are subject to change. Later we show a map of the hazards. Perhaps we should show them together.
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.
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Ski Snow Reports
New Feature – Ski Reports. It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every GEI Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.
We will update the above map weekly but more frequent updates can be obtained here.
Snow Forecasts.
Day 1
Day 2
Additional snow information can be found here and here.
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Tropical Events
This is now beyond the time of the year we pay special attention to Tropical Events other than the Western Pacific.
So I am replacing the large with three small maps but you can click on them to get larger versions. Even though they are small maps you should be able to tell if there is activity and If I see activity I will make the map where there is activity full size.
the Central Pacific. | the Eastern Pacific | the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico |
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Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.
And the Western Pacific
Week Tropical Forecast
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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast
And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).
First Temperature
And then Precipitation
For those interested in more detail, there are additional weather maps and information in the MORE WEATHER Addendum. The link to the Addendum is here. If for some reason, the link has not been updated, do not despair just click on the Directory and click on the version of MORE WEATHER that is closest to the top of the stack. Every weather article we have ever published is in the Directory. |
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Mesoscale Events
The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.
Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.
This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.
There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.
The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.
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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps
The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.
The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.
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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report
This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.
500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View
The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.
Day 3 Above, 6 Below | Day 4 Above,7 Below | Day 5 Above. |
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Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3
Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5
Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7
Now we look at the forecast for the Maximum Temperature three days out.
Looking ahead to next week.
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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings
Current watches, warnings, and advisories issued by the agencies of the National Weather Service. Hazards should show up in the various maps but the below links will take you to all outstanding watches and warnings in each category which may include some categories not covered in the various maps or difficult to find. So if there is a category of interest, click on the appropriate link below. |
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Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.
Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.
Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event. | These maps are updated as risks are identified. |
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page. | ![]() |
Convective Outlooks | |
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This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online. | Today’s Outlook |
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This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. | Tomorrow’s Outlook |
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This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. | Day 3 Outlook |
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This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point). | Day 4-8 Outlook |
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The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent. | Thunderstorm Outlook |
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Fire Weather Outlooks | |
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product. | Today’s Outlook |
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This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product. | Tomorrow’s Outlook |
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This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product. | Day 3-8 Outlook |
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