February 22, 2020 Weather Impacts On Economic Activity – Drought May Expand

Written by Sig Silber

Drought has improved a bit more this week but the new seasonal outlook suggests that drought may expand in the Spring on the West Coast and along the Rio Grande. We present the new seasonal drought forecasts. Also provided are the NASS (National Agricultural Statistics Service) forecasts released this week including the latest information on farms and the sizes of farms. And of course, we have our full set of regular weekly reports (including some recent crop reports) and, since we are now publishing on Fridays, our intermediate-term weather forecast covers 28 days and the first 14 days of the forecast updates automatically daily – so you can check it each day.

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Directory

Special Topics for this Week

Farms and Land in Farms

New Seasonal Drought Forecast.

Here is the short discussion that was issued with the forecast. The longer discussion is later in the article.

Latest Seasonal Assessment – Drought will likely persist in the Pacific Northwest, with additional drought expected to develop in Oregon and eastern Washington in association with below-normal precipitation favored during the March-April-May (MAM) period. Drought development is also becoming more likely across much of California due to a drier than normal wet season heading into to the upcoming climatological dry season. The long-term drought in the Four Corners region will likely persist as warmer and drier conditions are forecast for much of the Southwest. Some southward expansion of drought into Arizona and New Mexico is also favored. Much of the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS has seen above-normal precipitation in recent months due to a progressive jet stream pattern and active storm track. As such, the northern High Plains, Midwest, Northeast, and much of the Southeast will likely remain drought free. Drought conditions have improved in recent weeks in central Texas (Southern region) due to rainfall in excess of 6 inches in central portions of the state. However, drought is favored to continue for portions of Southern Texas south of the I-10 corridor extending from the Rio Grande Valley to inland areas of the Gulf Coast. Additional development may occur in western portions of the Southern region in association with above-normal temperatures coupled with below-normal precipitation favored for the period. In the Southeast, drought removal (D1 areas) and improvement (D2 areas) is favored for the Florida Panhandle, with above-normal precipitation favored across all short-range and long-range forecasts. Recent positive precipitation anomalies and continued above-normal precipitation favored over all of Alaska in the short-term favors no drought development for the period. Drought improvement or removal is likely in Hawaii, with enhanced probabilities for above-normal precipitation during the period. Although conditions are drier than normal in northwestern Puerto Rico, drought development is not favored due to weak precipitation signals.

Sierra Nevada Snow Drought.

Flooding remains a problem

Current Drought Conditions

Now we take a look at Thursday’s U.S. Drought Monitor Report.

The U.S. Drought Monitor is a comprehensive way of understanding the drought situation for the U.S. It is issued every Thursday and reflects the conditions as of the prior Tuesday. Drought is defined as a moisture deficit bad enough to have social, environmental or economic effects. Thus, more factors than recent precipitation are considered and more information on how it is done is found at the end of this report.

United States and Puerto Rico

U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

And this shows the U.S. including Alaska, Puerto Rico, and Hawaii.

Below is the map for just CONUS.

Last Week	This Week

Some might find this animation of twelve weeks of change useful;

The graphic below shows the one-week change in drought intensity. Yellow is bad. Green is good.

Now we show the week to week change information by region. The yellow is where the level of drought has been raised. The green is where the level of drought has been lowered.

Improvement in Colorado, Wyoming, and Kansas

No Change

No Change

Dry in Southern Texas but wetter to the north, west, and east.

Almost all the change is in Florida and it is mixed.

Mostly Mixed. There was improvement in New Mexico and degradation in Northern California and part of Arizona. There was mostly improvement in the Northwest.

Here is the Discussion that was issued with the Drought Report. The Regional Headings can be clicked on to obtain maps and statistics.

This Week’s Drought Summary

With high pressure anchored over the eastern Pacific Ocean, storm systems bypassed California, Nevada, Arizona, and Utah, instead tracking either northward into the Pacific Northwest or southward across Baja California and into the southern Rockies. Once they reached the Nation’s mid-section, ample Gulf moisture was incorporated into the storm systems, generating widespread showers and thunderstorms in the South and Southeast, along with mixed or frozen precipitation in more northern locales. The week’s heaviest precipitation (1-4 inches) fell on western sections of Washington and Oregon, parts of the Rockies, and in the southern Great Plains, lower Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys, Southeast, and Appalachians. Weekly temperatures averaged below normal in Alaska and across much of the North-Central States as Arctic air brought sub-zero readings to most of the Midwest Thursday and Friday. In contrast, above-normal readings encompassed the Southeast, mid-Atlantic, and portions of the Far West.

Northeast

Although 30- to 60-day precipitation totals were around 70-80% of normal in portions of eastern New England, light precipitation (0.5-1.5 inches) fell on these driest areas this week, effectively halting any potential D0 development. Along with it being the non-growing season (no evapotranspiration), seasonable (cold) weekly temperatures, a decent snow cover across northern sections, USGS average stream flows near or above-normal, and no obvious drought or dryness impacts all confirmed that no D0 or drought should be depicted.

Southeast

Moderate to heavy rain (1.5-4.5 inches) fell for the second consecutive week across much of the Southeast, further soaking the soils and causing rivers to reach much-above or near-record high flows in the northern halves of Alabama and Georgia, most of South Carolina, western North Carolina, and southern Virginia. This was most notable at the 7-, 14-, and 28-day USGS average stream flows as the 1-day and instantaneous time scales had reduced (but still above-normal) values. In sharp contrast, areas along the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic Coasts (mainly Florida) only received scattered lighter amounts (less than an inch). The D0 and D1 in Florida and extreme southwestern Alabama remained, although a few reductions in the D0 areas were made in northeastern and central Florida where enough rain fell. These D0s were also redrawn to reflect the largest short-term deficits and SPIs, along with lower USGS stream flows (<25th percentile). In the north-central Florida Panhandle, D2 was introduced to the counties of Wakulla, Leon, and Jefferson as the heaviest precipitation has largely bypassed this area during the past year, resulting in a 20.18 inch annual deficit at Tallahassee, FL, for 2019. Total precipitation last year was 39.05 inches compared to a normal of 59.23 inches. Since Jan. 1, 2020, Tallahassee is already 4.20 inches below normal (3.06″ vs 7.26″ as of Feb. 18). In a weird twist due to the heavy upstream rainfall, smaller local rivers in the 3 Florida counties were at near-record low levels while the much larger Apalachicola River just to the west was at near-record high levels.

South

Heavy rains (2-5 inches) fell from central Texas northeastward into southwestern Arkansas, across northern Louisiana, and from west-central Mississippi northeastward into central Tennessee. Light to moderate amounts (0.5-2 inches) were reported in northern and eastern Texas, eastern Oklahoma, and the remainder of Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee. Little or no precipitation occurred in western portions of Texas and Oklahoma, and across southern and southeastern Texas. Weekly temperatures were seasonable in western and northern sections of the South, and above-normal along the central Gulf Coast. With the heavy rain that fell across central and northeastern Texas, a broad 1-category improvement was made, including some 2-category reductions (D2 to D0; D1 to nothing) in northeastern Texas where the amounts were the greatest. Elsewhere, some of the D0 and D1 was erased in northern Texas and southwest Oklahoma that incorporated precipitation over the past 2-week period; the D0 in southwest Arkansas was removed; and some D0 was alleviated in Louisiana and southern Mississippi where the totals exceeded an inch. In contrast, very dry weather the past 30- to 60-days in southern Texas, combined with above-normal temperatures, warranted a broad 1-category degradation in many southern and southeastern sections of the state. Deficits at 30-days reached 0.5-1.5 inches and 1.5-3 inches in southern and southeastern portions, and at 60-days, shortages were 1-2 inches and 2-4 inches, respectively. D3 was added or expanded where the short- and medium-range tools (3-, 6-, and 9-months) were the driest, along with corresponding to low values (less than tenth percentile) on the USGS average stream flows. D0 was also expanded into extreme southwestern Louisiana where little or no rain fell and short-term deficiencies grew.

Midwest

Similar to the Northeast, short-term (30-days) precipitation deficits existed, but near to surplus precipitation is common across the Midwest at longer time periods (2-months and longer), thus no drought or D0 was depicted. In addition, snow covered much of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region, and with subnormal temperatures this week, the ground and smaller rivers were frozen in many northern locations. This region could actually use some dryness and warmth to get the fields primed for spring preparation and planting.

High Plains

Little or no precipitation was recorded across the northern and central Plains, although scattered light totals occurred in parts of the northern and central Rockies. The past 30-days have been drier than normal, but January and February precipitation climatologies are normally dry, and temperatures have been below normal the past 2 weeks. From 3-months and longer, however, wet conditions prevailed throughout much of the northern and central Plains, and with low temperatures, the non-growing season, and frozen and snow-covered ground in the north, drought and D0 was limited to southern areas (Kansas and Colorado), along with smaller D0 areas in northern Wyoming and western Montana. In south-central Kansas, light precipitation (0.25-1 inch) was enough to ease drought and dryness, while decent snowfall in central Colorado brought most indices close to normal, thus eliminating D0 in Lake County. In western Wyoming’s Teton County, 0.5-2 inches of precipitation boosted SNOTEL WYTD basin average precipitation and SWC to near-normal (97%) and above-normal (112%) levels, respectively, eliminating the D0 there. Light precipitation in northern Wyoming’s Big Horn County also decreased D0 along its eastern edges. In contrast, D0 expanded somewhat in western Montana as 30- and 60-day indices were very low (dry), but WYTD values were close to normal. Fortunately, SNOTEL WYTD basin average SWC has remained above normal.

West

High pressure off the California coast kept much of California, Nevada, Arizona, and Utah precipitation-free this week, with above-normal temperatures in California. Instead, Pacific storm systems were deflected northward or southward, allowing the Pacific Northwest to receive welcome moisture after such a dry start to the Water Year (mainly October and November 2019). The precipitation, along with enough cold air, has steadily increased the SNOTEL basin average WYTD precipitation and SWC in the Washington Cascades to near- or above-normal values, thus easing drought in western and eastern sections of the state. These values decrease as one heads southward, with SWC between 77-91% of normal in the Oregon Cascades, and dropping to between 52-71% of normal in the Sierra Nevada. In southern Idaho, light to moderate precipitation in the southwest helped to improve the D1 to D0 as SWC rose to 92% of normal. However, the SWC of the Big Lost, Big Wood, and Little Wood basins have dropped to between 58-74% of normal, with WYTD precipitation ranging from 52-60% of normal. Thus, D1 was expanded southward to encompass these basins, and additional deterioration may be required soon if it stays dry. Since many changes were made last week, only minor modifications were made to the Far West this week. This included bridging the D0 gap in northern California as conditions were similar to the two D0 areas to the north and south; slightly expanding D1 into central Oregon while improving D1 to D0 and D0 to nothing in eastern Oregon; slightly retreating the D0 and D1 in the northern Oregon and Washington Cascades eastward as another round of decent precipitation fell there, increasing both the SNOTEL WYTD basin average precipitation and SWC; and slightly readjusting the D1 area in central Washington eastward to better reflect where the driest indices were. In the Southwest, a southern tracking storm system brought welcome precipitation to southern Arizona and most of New Mexico over the 2-week period, allowing for 1-category improvements (D0 to nothing) in southwestern and southeastern New Mexico, along with some slight D1 improvements in central and east-central sections. The balancing between the poor 2019 summer monsoon versus favorable 2019-2020 winter precipitation was taken into account. The northern areas (D2) were left unchanged this week since they was hit harder by the weak summer and fall monsoon, and because the WYTD basin average precipitation has been below-normal (73-94%), while southern areas were at or above-normal (95-144%). Elsewhere, no changes were made, although the boundary between the short-term (S) versus short and long-term (SL) impacts were differentiated in the Far West with impact lines.

Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico

In Alaska, light to moderate precipitation fell along the southern coasts [0.5-2 inches in the west (Aleutians), 1-5 inches in the southeastern Panhandle], and weekly temperatures remained well below-normal, especially in the interior, northern, and eastern sections, so interior precipitation mainly fell as snow. Lows dropped below -50 degree F in many northern and eastern interior sections. The newly-added D0 area in south-central Alaska was trimmed north of Anchorage as updated information indicated Feb. 1 SWE was at 100-140% of normal. The southeastern Panhandle remained at D0(L), although conditions have slowly improved with increased precipitation and lower temperatures so far this year.

According to the Hawaiian FSA, improvements in Maui pastures from rains over the past several weeks were enough for a 1-category reduction in drought island-wide. Elsewhere, status-quo was recommended for the other Hawaiian islands until additional impact reports come in.

The D0 in northwestern Puerto Rico was slightly expanded outward as another dry week increased short-term deficits there. Except for portions of the southern coast, the rest of the island experienced scattered, light to moderate weekly rainfall which maintained adequate short-term moisture at 30-, 60-, and 90-days.

Pacific Islands

During the Northern Hemisphere winter, the North Pacific subtropical high, and the low latitude Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), migrate south toward the equator. The seasonal migration brings drier subtropical trade winds to the northern portions of Micronesia and ITCZ rainfall to the southern regions. The weather conditions across the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) during this USDM week (2/12/20-2/18/20) reflected this pattern with dry northeast trades dominating in the north and a near-equatorial trough persisting in the south. Cold fronts approached from the north and west, but they manifested mostly as shear lines as they moved across northern and western Micronesia with dry mid-latitude air masses in their wake. A weak trade-wind disturbance developed in the near-equatorial trough south of Koror, and a weak circulation formed in the trough south of the Marshall Islands (RMI). The near-equatorial trough extended south of the equator and spread southeastward toward the Samoan Islands and beyond as the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) monsoon trough. Circulations developed within the SPCZ as it lay near or across the Samoan Islands, with two of the circulations prompting advisories at times. These were Tropical Disturbances 93P and 96P.

Satellite-based estimates of 7-day precipitation (QPE) showed a patchy band of 1-4 inches of rainfall across southern portions of Micronesia, associated with the ITCZ, with little to no rain indicated across northern portions except for a few stripes where the shear lines triggered showers. The ITCZ rain band turned southeastward as the SPCZ toward and past the Samoan Islands which were within the 4+ inch area of a wide band of precipitation associated with the SPCZ. Samoan residents reported continuous heavy rainfall with damaging winds, especially associated with the tropical disturbances.

After two consecutive weeks of precipitation totals above 2 inches in Palau and a month-to-date precipitation total of 6.10 inches, drought classification was improved from moderate drought to abnormally dry conditions.

The Marianas had a dry week. All three stations had less than half an inch of rain for the week. Saipan had the least precipitation, receiving only 0.06 inch (ASOS: 0.03 inch; NPS: 0.09 inch), followed by Guam at 0.14 inch, and Rota at 0.29 inch. This week marked the second consecutive week for Guam and Rota having less than half an inch of rain. However, Rota’s month-to-date precipitation total is 5.15 inches, which is more than the monthly threshold of 4 inches to meet most water needs. Abnormally dry conditions persists for another week across Rota and Guam, while Saipan remains in moderate drought for another week.

During this drought week, much of the Federated States of Micronesia had dry conditions. Several locations had less than half an inch of rain, while only two stations (Kosrae and Pingelap) had a very wet week. Kosrae and Pingelap remained in drought free status as both of these stations had over 4 inches of rain for the week. Lukunoch had the least precipitation total for the week, receiving only 0.21 inch of rain. Yap (0.30 inch), Chuuk Lagoon (0.31 inch), Nukuoro (0.40 inch), and Ulithi (0.31 inch) also had less than half an inch of rain, while Kapingamarangi and Pohnpei had 0.60 inch and 0.81 inch of rain, respectively. Although this was the second consecutive week with less than an inch of rain, Chuuk Lagoon, Nukuoro, Ulithi, and Pohnpei remained in drought free status. Lukunoch’s drought status changed from abnormally dry to moderate drought after precipitation totals during six of seven consecutive weeks had less than an inch of rain. Kapingamarangi, Woleai, and Yap remained in abnormally dry conditions this week.

Another dry week affected the Marshalls Islands. The station with the least precipitation was Mili which reported no rain this week. Meanwhile, Jaluit had the most precipitation with only 0.80 inch of rain. After three consecutive weeks of little to no rain, Mili’s drought classification was changed from drought free to abnormally dry. Ailinglapalap and Jaluit remained in abnormally dry conditions. Although Majuro had 1.82 inch of rain this week, the reservoir levels were at 64.4% of the maximum capacity (as of February 19), which is below the critical 80% threshold. For this reason, Majuro’s drought classification was downgraded to moderate drought. Wotje had 1.50 inches of rain this week, which is slightly below the weekly threshold of 2 inches to meet most water needs. However, precipitation totals the last five weeks have been less than an inch, with the last three weeks having no rain at all. For this reason, Wotje’s drought classification was downgraded to moderate drought. Kwajalein’s drought classification remained at moderate drought.

Drought free conditions remained across American Samoa as it was another wet week. Pago Pago had 7.97 inches of rain this week, while Siufaga Ridge (4.20 inches) and Toa Ridge (4.34 inches) had over 4 inches of rain this week. Overall, Pago Pago has had 22.15 inches of rain so far for the month of February, with Siufaga Ridge and Toa Ridge having over 11 inches this month.

Virgin Islands

Drought free conditions continued across St. Thomas and St. John as precipitation totals were near or above the month-to-date and year-to-date values. SPI values for both locations indicate drought free conditions in the short and long term.

St. Croix had a total of 0.43 inch of rain at the Henry E. Rohlsen Airport and 0.41 inch at the Christiansted 1.8 ESE CoCoRaHS station this week. The month-to-date precipitation total of 0.80 inch is 76.9% of normal precipitation. Year-to-date precipitation at the airport was 3.63 inches or 114.2% of normal. SPI values at 1 and 3 months indicate drought free conditions, while the 6, 9, and 12 months SPI indicate moderate drought. For this reason, long-term moderate drought persists across St. Croix this week.

Looking Ahead

During the next 5 days (February 20-24), another round of moderate to heavy precipitation (1-3 inches) is expected for the Pacific Northwest (western Washington and Oregon, northern Idaho), the central Great Plains, and from central Texas eastward across the Southeast to the Carolina Coasts. Light to moderate amounts (0.5-1 inch) are possible in the Four Corners Region, the Rockies, western Corn Belt, and eastern sections of the Northeast. Little or no precipitation is forecast for most of California, northern Nevada and Utah, eastern Oregon, southern Idaho, across the northern Plains, upper Midwest, and Great Lakes region, and southern Florida. Temperatures should average below-normal across the Northwest, Rockies, and southern half of the contiguous U.S., and above-normal in the Southwest, northern Plains, upper Midwest, and southern Florida.

In the extended range forecast for the ensuing 5 days (February 25-29), odds favor above-normal precipitation throughout Alaska, and from the central Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes region, the western and central Gulf Coasts, and the eastern quarter of the Nation. Subnormal precipitation is favored west of the Rockies, the northern and southern Plains, and the lower Mississippi Valley. Temperatures are likely to be below-normal across much of the lower 48 States and western Alaska, with low odds for above-normal temperatures in California, the Northeast Coast, southern Florida, and south-central and southeastern Alaska.

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And then Precipitation

Here is the discussion that was released with the Week 3 – 4 forecast today.

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Mar 07 2020-Fri Mar 20 2020

ENSO-neutral conditions currently are present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-to-above average across the Pacific Ocean. Enhanced convection in the tropics has organized and strengthened over the western Pacific over the past week. The GEFS and ECMWF both indicate that interference with the eastward moving signal is likely to continue through the next two weeks, leading to a disorganized signal on the RMM index. The Week 3-4 Outlook is based primarily on dynamical model forecasts, including the NCEP CFS, ECMWF, and JMA ensemble prediction systems, as well as the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX), a multi-model ensemble (MME) of both operational and experimental ensemble prediction systems. Statistical forecasts, including a multivariate linear regression (MLR) of lagged temperature and precipitation forecasts to currently observed MJO and ENSO indices, are also consulted. Decadal timescale temperature trends are also a source of predictability in both dynamical and statistical forecast tools.

Dynamical model guidance from the various models is broadly consistent, depicting pronounced ridging over the North Pacific, particularly south of the Aleutians, with below-average heights over the Arctic and extending over Greenland and to some extent over Canada. This pattern suggests that the CONUS would be vulnerable to cold air intrusions. All three dynamical model systems depict a weakness in the height field over the Southwest, which may provide a conduit for Pacific flow into the U.S., particularly across California.

Above-normal temperatures are forecast across Alaska as ridging builds to the south. Below-normal temperatures are favored across much of the northern tier of the CONUS, with a southward extension to the Central Plains due to the potential for cold air intrusions from Canada. Dynamical models also favor increased chances for below-normal temperatures across New England. Above-normal temperatures are also slightly favored over California due to a long-term warming trend. Above-normal heights favor above-normal temperatures for the Florida Peninsula.

The area of highest confidence in the precipitation outlook is Alaska, where dynamical models strongly favor enhanced precipitation across the western half of the State and along the North Slope. Below-median precipitation is forecast for the Alaska Panhandle and parts of the southern Coastal Alaska as well as the Pacific Northwest, while Pacific moisture may result in enhanced precipitation for Arizona and southern Utah. Further east, the possibility for cold continental airmass intrusions into the central U.S. favor below-median precipitation for the Plains, Great Lakes, and New England. Near- to above-median precipitation is more likely for parts of the Southeast, supported by the CFS/ECMWF/JMA Correlation and Equal Weighted tools as well as the Autoblend tool.

SST anomalies remain above-normal in the vicinity of Hawaii, although the magnitude of the anomalies has been gradually decreasing. Dynamical model forecasts, including the Subseasonal Experiment (Sub-X) suite, support above-normal temperatures across Hawaii. Dynamical models generally favor enhanced precipitation.

Some may find the below way of looking at things useful and I hope these graphics are not too small to read. I did not make them so you could click on them individually but you can click on the whole graphic and it may enlarge. But I think you get the picture. It has been a rapid onset and demise. When you read these graphics, remember that the older graphics are not the drought conditions that existed then but the change from then until now.

Let’s focus on the change between January 21, 2020, and February 18, 2020, i.e. one month.

Focusing on the Intermountain West

Drought Forecasts

These two forecasts (Monthly and Season) are issued by the same agency but to obtain them you need to access two different links here and here.

Here is the Three-Month Forecast which was issued on February 20, 2020

Here is the discussion which was released with the updated drought forecast.

Discussion for the Seasonal Drought Outlook

Tools used in the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for March 2020 and March-April-May (MAM) 2020, various short-range and medium-range forecasts and models, such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), the Weeks 3-4 outlooks and tools from CPC, dynamical models at the monthly and seasonal time scales, climatology for the MAM season, snow cover, soil moisture, and initial conditions. ENSO conditions are favored to remain neutral during the boreal spring season.

Drier than normal conditions persist across much of the Western Region. Below-normal precipitation is favored in the Pacific Northwest in the ERF, Weeks 3-4, and March precipitation outlooks, with equal chances to below-normal favored for the MAM season. Precipitation over California is favored to be below-normal through MAM. As such, drought persistence is expected in central Washington, north-central Oregon, and central California. Drought expansion is expected across central and northern California, Oregon, and eastern Washington. Snowpack in the Cascades is slightly above normal, so no development is expected along the eastern slopes in Washington. Drought development in California is supported by an increasing potential for a dry end to their climatological wet season. Drought Persistence in Idaho is status quo for now also, as long-range outlooks for this region favor near-normal precipitation. The long-term drought over the Four Corners region is expected to persist, with slight southward expansion likely due to drier than normal conditions over the past 30-60 days over Arizona and northern parts of New Mexico. However, wet antecedent conditions in southwestern New Mexico over the last 30 days make it more unlikely for any further southward expansion into the state.

Forecast confidence is low for the Pacific Northwest, and moderate for the Southwest (West Region).

Drought persistence is likely in the southwestern High Plains Region (near the Four Corners region) due to the lack of a clear wet signal during the MAM period. Drought removal is likely for central Kansas over the next couple of weeks in association with enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over this region through the Week 2 period, with equal chances favored for MAM. In addition, severe weather may start to play a role in the April to May timeframe, which further supports removal there. No drought development is expected.

Forecast confidence is moderate for the Four Corners region, and high elsewhere for the High Plains Region.

Much of the Midwest region is seeing 1-2 inch positive precipitation anomalies for the past 90 days, with pockets of 4-inch positive anomalies near the Great Lakes. A larger area of greater than 4-inch positive anomalies in southern portions of the region stretches from Missouri eastward to the Ohio Valley. Although below-normal precipitation is favored in the first month of the MAM period, above-normal precipitation is favored for much of the region later in the period, with the highest probabilities centered over the Ohio River Valley. Based on these wet antecedent conditions and the wet Spring outlook, no drought development is anticipated. In fact, these are some of the same areas that had a late start to the 2019 growing season due to excessive rainfall, so agricultural impacts from potential excessive rainfall will need to be monitored closely.

Forecast confidence is high for the Midwest Region.

Heavy rainfall in central and eastern Texas in recent days (in excess of 6 inches locally) has removed much of the deficit across central portions of the state. With above-normal precipitation expected over the next couple of weeks in association with the potential for lee-side cyclogenesis and trailing frontal boundaries, short-term improvement and removal are favored for areas north of the I-10 corridor between Houston and San Antonio. Meanwhile, drought conditions are favored to persist south of the I-10 corridor, extending from interior areas of the Gulf Coast westward to the Rio Grande Valley. Some drought development is favored in western Texas due to consistent dry signals in the models. Drought removal is favored in southwestern Oklahoma, as the severe weather season climatologically begins during the latter half of the period, and drylines tend to set up near this region.

Forecast confidence is low for Texas, and moderate elsewhere for the South Region.

Long-term drought over the Florida Panhandle (near Tallahassee) in the Southeast Region continues (365-day deficits of ~20 inches in localized areas), but is favored to improve for locations with long-term deficits, and to dissipate for those in short-term drought, with above-normal precipitation favored for all forecast periods. In addition, drier than normal conditions over the Big Bend and portions of the peninsula are expected to also improve, with no additional drought development likely. The rest of the region is expected to remain wetter than normal.

Forecast confidence is moderate for the Florida Panhandle, and high elsewhere for the Southeast Region.

The Northeast region as a whole remains near normal for observed year-to-date precipitation. Weak negative anomalies have crept into coastal areas of New England, but have not been significant enough to warrant any development yet. In addition, weakly positive probabilities for above-normal precipitation are favored for MAM. As such, no drought development is expected for the Northeast during the MAM period.

Forecast confidence is high for the Northeast Region.

Drought in the Alaska Panhandle has dissipated over the past 30 days due to an active storm track across the state. Above-normal precipitation is favored over the panhandle over the next 2 weeks, with weak probabilities for below-normal precipitation favored for the MAM period. However, dry precipitation signals in the models have weakened a bit in recent days over the panhandle. In addition, above-normal precipitation is favored for much of Mainland Alaska through the period. No drought development likely for the state.

Forecast confidence is moderate for Alaska.

Drought improvement or removal is likely in Hawaii. Models favor moderate probabilities for above-normal precipitation during the period. No drought development is expected.

Forecast confidence is high for Hawaii.

A small area of northwestern Puerto Rico remains drier than normal, with 30-day rainfall deficits of 1-3 inches, despite the rest of the island being anywhere from near normal to 5 inches above normal. Models are showing weak precipitation signals for this region. For now, no development is expected.

Forecast confidence is moderate for Puerto Rico.

Here is the Monthly Drought Outlook which was updated on January 31, 2020. It will be updated as a March Forecast on February 29, 2020

Floods

Floods remain a concern.

Last Week	Current Week

Wildfires

Our usual graphic is not updating so we have deleted it. Bu updates from this source can be found here.

Current Wildfire Risk. This is a new model that updates daily by NOAA (but not automatically in this article) to show the short-term risk.

Click here to update. Red is high risk, blue is low risk. This graphic updates daily but you have to click on the link provided to get the updates More information can be found here.

This explains the model a bit.

The below graphics will update automatically on February 1 or so. So ignore the commentary for the time being. We will update it shortly.

Looking out another month.

Crop and Animal Husbandry Progress (We have a few reports this week)

International

A map helps and is not always available and fortunately, it was available this week.

Major Sources of Information

In the box are shown the major resources we use. We will not be using them all each week but the reader is welcome to refer to these resources.

Background Information

The sequence of drought occurrence and impacts for commonly accepted drought types. All droughts originate from a deficiency of precipitation or meteorological drought but other types of drought and impacts cascade from this deficiency. (Source: NDMC)

Source: National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska-Lincoln