Written by Sig Silber

Updated at 3:25 pm EST February 11, 2020 – “…An upgrade to Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall has been issued for the Upper Tennessee Valley and Cumberland Plateau for Wednesday.  A Slight Risk remains today (Tuesday) from eastern Texas, northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas expanding into the Upper Ohio Valley……A Slight Risk of Severe Weather has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) across the Lower Mississippi Valley……Heavy snow is possible over parts of the Southern Rockies today into early Wed morning……Light-to-moderate snow is possible with some mixed freezing rain will be possible across central IND-OH, northern PA into NY and West-Central New England through Wednesday night…“

This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations. We include a Ski Report.

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Directory

CONUS Focal Points

Short Range Focal Points

…An upgrade to Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall has been issued for the Upper Tennessee Valley and Cumberland Plateau for Wednesday.  A Slight Risk remains today (Tuesday) from eastern Texas, northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas expanding into the Upper Ohio Valley…

…A Slight Risk of Severe Weather has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) across the Lower Mississippi Valley…

…Heavy snow is possible over parts of the Southern Rockies today into early Wed morning…

…Light-to-moderate snow is possible with some mixed freezing rain will be possible across central IND-OH, northern PA into NY and West-Central New England through Wednesday night…

A frontal zone from the Mid-Atlantic back to deep south Texas will be the focus for the development of a strong surface cyclone overnight Tuesday into Wed. A mid to upper level cyclone currently over northern Old Mexico is already supporting heavy snow generation across the Southern Rockies of New Mexico with 6 to 12 inches of snow forecast with localized higher amounts in the highest peaks.  Warm, moist air over the Western Gulf, supported by the upper-level cyclone will lift north with the potential for scattered to widespread moderate and sometimes heavy rainfall across Eastern TX to the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight, with possible wintry mix conditions along the north and western fringes in Western Oklahoma to Missouri. Overnight into Wednesday morning, rainy conditions across Eastern Texas into southern Arkansas will provide the potential for 2 to 3 inches of rainfall and the potential for flooding/flash flooding conditions to arise.  As such, the Weather Prediction Center has issued a  Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for this area.

By tomorrow (Wed) morning, a surface low pressure will develop and deepen across the eastern coast of Texas into western Tennessee.  This will bring very moist/unstable air across the Lower Mississippi Valley capable of producing thunderstorms capable of severe weather, and so a Slight Risk was issued by the Storm Prediction Center.  These thunderstorms will have ample moisture and capability of continuing very heavy rainfall and flooding conditions across the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. With the potential of 2 to 3 inches of rain over highly saturated areas; the Weather Prediction Center has upgraded to a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall from Central Tennessee into south-central Kentucky with a Slight Risk extending into the Upper Ohio Valley and Cumberland Plateau.   Extensive Flash Flood Watches have been issued by the majority of the forecast areas described above from eastern TX to southern Ohio/West Virginia.

By Thursday morning, the surface low will have quickly progressed into the Upper Ohio Valley/Allegheny Plateau with the cold front pressing through the Appalachian mountains.  Further north, an Arctic air mass will have dropped south across the Northern Plains with temperatures about 10-20 degrees below average behind the front reaching into the Upper Midwest by Thursday morning.  The combination of the moisture drawn out of the Gulf ahead of the front and approaching colder air from the north will support the threat for light to occasionally moderate snows north of the front in IND, OH, PA and New York, with some mixing and potential for freezing rain conditions.  Temperatures behind the Arctic cold front will expand across the Upper Midwest and into the Western Great Lakes by the end of the forecast period (Thursday night) with similar 10-20 degree below average values expected.

Click here for the latest complete NWS/WPC Short Range Discussion. (Sometimes we provide part of or even the full discussion above and you can tell because it goes beyond the bullet points. We do that when we think the bullet points do not provide enough information. But the link just provided always takes you to the full discussion with updates twice a day and sometimes we are a bit late updating the bullet points so that link will get you there. You can tell if we are late by the time of the stamped update. This time of the year, NOAA does the updates at around 3 a.m. and 3 p.m. EST. We try to do the updates in our article as close to that as possible but it is not always possible.)

This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.

The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.

Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.

Temperature

Water Vapor.

This view of the past 24 hours provides a lot of insight as to what is happening.

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Day 3 – 7 Hazards

– Heavy precipitation across portions of the Pacific Northwest and the Northern Great Basin, Sat-Sun, Feb 15-Feb 16.

– Heavy rain across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Southern Appalachians, the Southern Plains, and the Ohio Valley, Mon-Tue, Feb 17-Feb 18.

– Heavy snow across portions of the Northern Rockies and the Northern Great Basin, Sat-Sun, Feb 15-Feb 16.

– Heavy snow across portions of the Central Rockies, the Central Great Basin, the Northern Rockies, and the Northern Great Basin, Sun, Feb 16.

– Heavy snow across portions of the Great Lakes and the Upper Mississippi Valley, Mon, Feb 17.

– Flooding possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Central Appalachians, the Tennessee Valley, the Southern Appalachians, the Southeast, the Southern Plains, and the Ohio Valley.

– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee  Valley, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Mid-Atlantic, the Southeast, the Pacific Northwest, and the Ohio Valley.

– Flooding likely across portions of the Southeast, the Mid-Atlantic, and the Pacific Northwest.

– Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Northern Plains, and the Ohio Valley, Fri, Feb 14.

– Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Northeast and the Great Lakes, Fri-Sat, Feb 14-Feb 15.

– Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Mon-Tue, Feb 17-Feb 18.

– Much below normal temperatures across portions of mainland Alaska, Fri-Mon, Feb 14-Feb 17.

(This is updated only during the week) Note the first list is weather highlights, this list is hazards. Not sure there is that much of a difference but they come from two different parts of NOAA. The Day 3 – 7 Hazards List does not update on weekends.

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays.

For more details see Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps.

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Ski Snow Reports

New Feature – Ski Reports. It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every GEI Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.

We will update the above map weekly but more frequent updates can be obtained here.

Snow Forecasts.

Day 1

Day 2

Additional snow information can be found here and here.

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Tropical Events

This is now beyond the time of the year we pay special attention to Tropical Events other than the Western Pacific.

So I am replacing the large with three small maps but you can click on them to get larger versions. Even though they are small maps you should be able to tell if there is activity and If I see activity I will make the map where there is activity full size.

the Central Pacific.	the Eastern Pacific	the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico

Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.

And the Western Pacific

Week Tropical Forecast

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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).

First Temperature

And then Precipitation

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Mesoscale Events

The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.

Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.

This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.

There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps

The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

Now we look at the forecast for the Maximum Temperature three days out.

Looking ahead to next week.

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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings

Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.

Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
Convective Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook
The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook
Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook

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