November 22, 2019 Weather Impacts On Economic Activity – More Crop Forecasts

Written by Sig Silber

We are covering a lot of ground tonight. We report on many crops that we did not cover last week due to space limitations. Overall, the results are disappointing – but not in every case. We also include the very interesting newly released summary of the 2018 irrigation and water management survey. This is the week when the international weather summaries for the prior month become available and we report on a number of regions. All of this and much more is in this week’s report. This includes, of course, the weekly United States Drought Monitor which is showing a very low level of drought.

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Directory

Special topics for this Week

USDA survey of 2018 Irrigation and Water Management Data has been released.

Contact: Sue King, (202) 690-8122 [email protected] Teresa White, (202) 690-8123 [email protected] 2018 Irrigation and Water Management data now available

WASHINGTON, Nov. 13, 2019 – There were 231,474 farms with 55.9 million irrigated acres, which included 83.4 million acre-feet of water applied in the United States, according to the 2018 Irrigation and Water Management Survey results, published today by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). In 2013, the irrigation survey results showed that there were 229,237 farms with 55.3 million irrigated acres, which included 88.5 million acre-feet of water. The results show that though the number of farms irrigating and the amount of land irrigated increased slightly between 2013 and 2018, the total amount of water used for irrigation declined.

“The 2018 Irrigation and Water Management Survey, formerly titled the Farm and Ranch Irrigation Survey, expands on the data collected in the 2017 Census of Agriculture,” said NASS Administrator Hubert Hamer. “This report offers detailed, comprehensive, up-to-date information specific to the agriculture industry’s use and management of water supplies.”

Data highlights from the 2018 Irrigation and Water Management Survey include:

The total amount of water used in 2018 was 83.4 million acre-feet, down 5.8 percent from 2013.

The average acre feet applied was 1.5, which compares with 1.6 in the 2013 irrigation survey. (An acre foot is the amount of water required to cover one acre to a depth of one foot.)

The largest portion of irrigated farmland acres in the United States was dedicated to cropland – including grain and oilseed crops, vegetables, nursery and greenhouse, and hay crops.

Farmers irrigated 51.5 million acres of harvested cropland acres in the open in 2018.

Ground water from on-farm wells accounted for 50 percent of irrigation water applied to acres in the open; the average well depth in 2018 was 235 feet.

The irrigation results show more irrigated acres with sprinkler systems than gravity irrigation.

Five states accounted for around one-half of the irrigated acres and water applied – California, Nebraska, Arkansas, Texas, and Idaho.

Equipment, in general, is one of the leading irrigation expenditures with farmers and ranchers spending more than $2 billion on irrigation equipment, facilities, land improvements and computer technology in 2018; energy costs for pumping well and surface water amounted to $2.4 billion.

Irrigated area of horticulture under protection was 1.53 billion square feet in 2018. This compares with 1.41 billion square feet in 2013.

Irrigated horticulture grown in the open was 581,936 acres in 2018. This compares with 524,227 acres in 2013.

The 2018 Irrigation and Water Management Survey followed up with approximately 35,000 producers who indicated in the 2017 Census of Agriculture that they irrigate. Producers provided information on water sources and amount of water used; acres irrigated by type of system; irrigation and yield by crop; and system investments and energy costs.

“The 2018 Irrigation and Water Management Survey results provide valuable information that farmers, ranchers, policymakers, and others can use to make agriculture water use more efficient,” said Hamer. “In making decisions about their operations and their communities, producers and policymakers can learn about the use of improved technology, efficient ways to irrigate, and ways to reduce irrigation-related expenses.”

To access the results of the 2018 Irrigation and Water Management Survey, visit www.nass.usda.gov/AgCensus.

Additional New Crop Forecasts which we did not report last week.

But first let’s rehash what was presented last week.

Now we will look at crops that we did not report on last week.

Looking at Canada

Millions of acres of Canadian canola freeze, compounding ‘harvest from hell’ By Rod Nickel

Reuters Commodities Nov 15, 2019 12:31PM ET

Key quotes from that article

WINNIPEG, Manitoba (Reuters) – Heavy snow and rain during harvest on the Canadian Prairies have left several million acres of canola buried until spring, the latest blow in a miserable year that may compound farmer problems into 2020.

In Alberta, 17% of canola was unharvested as of Nov. 5, according to the provincial government, along with 12% of Saskatchewan’s canola and 9% of Manitoba’s output measured around the same time. Based on Canadian government planting estimates, that unharvested canola represents some 2.7 million acres, or 13% of national plantings.

Canola is a GMO version of Rapeseed.

International Weather in October 2019

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

First Temperature

And then Precipitation

And this also

Current Drought Conditions

Now we take a look at Thursday’s U.S. Drought Monitor Report.

The U.S. Drought Monitor is a comprehensive way of understanding the drought situation for the U.S. It is issued every Thursday and reflects the conditions as of the prior Tuesday. Drought is defined as a moisture deficit bad enough to have social, environmental or economic effects. Thus, more factors than recent precipitation are considered and more information on how it is done is found at the end of this report.

U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Below is the map for just CONUS.

Last Week	This Week

Some might find this animation of twelve weeks of change useful;

The graphic below shows the one-week change in drought intensity. Yellow is bad. Green is good.

Now we show the week to week change information by region. The yellow is where the level of drought has been raised. The green is where the level of drought has been lowered.

Some deterioration in the southern part of this region.

No change and almost no drought.

No change and almost no drought.

Mixed.

General Improvement

Some Degradation but only small areas involved. The report next week should show improvement.

Here is the Discussion that was issued with the Drought Report. The Regional Headings can be clicked on to obtain maps and statistics.

This Week’s Drought Summary

Following a harsh, early-season cold outbreak, which peaked from November 11-14 across the central and eastern United States, temperatures began to rebound. Although cool conditions lingered for several days in the East, above-normal temperatures quickly returned across the nation’s mid-section. In the days following the cold snap, significant precipitation was limited to areas from southern Texas into parts of the Southeast. The rain further eased Southeastern drought that had peaked in coverage and intensity during the first half of October. Meanwhile, patchy, generally light precipitation stretched across the northern U.S., including the Midwest. Higher totals were observed in a few spots, including western Washington and northern New England. Dry weather covered other parts of the country, stretching from California to the central and southern Plains, leading to further development, expansion, and intensification of dryness (D0) and moderate to extreme drought (D1 to D3). In Western drought areas, warm weather aggravated the effects of ongoing dryness. As the drought-monitoring period came to an end, an approaching storm system brought the promise of Southwestern rain and snow – precipitation that will evaluated for next week’s Drought Monitor.

Northeast

Patchy dryness in Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia is the vestige of an early-autumn dry spell. During the drought-monitoring period, cold weather accompanied periodic light precipitation, except for some heavy snow across the northern tier of the region.

Southeast

Abundant precipitation fell in many areas, especially from east-central Alabama to the Atlantic Coast States (from northern Florida to southeastern Virginia). Where the heaviest rain fell, there were generous (up to one category) reductions in the coverage of dryness (D0) and moderate to severe drought (D1 to D2). Jacksonville, Florida, collected a daily-record rainfall total of 3.16 inches on November 15. In Georgia, daily-record amounts included 4.04 inches (on November 16) in Savannah and 2.32 inches (on November 15) on Saint Simons Island. Savannah received 5.35 inches from November 14-16. However, heavy rain bypassed southern Florida, except a few spots along the Atlantic Coast, leaving abnormal dryness (D0) largely intact. One exception was Fort Lauderdale, Florida, where rainfall totaled 4.58 inches from November 13-15.

South

The South had a mix of degradations and improvements. Heavy rain dampened parts of southern Texas, where Harlingen netted 2.69 inches from November 11-14. One of the two remaining areas of extreme drought (D3) in southern Texas was removed due to rain, and reductions in the coverage of moderate to severe drought (D1 to D2) were noted in some areas. Most other areas in the South either continued to experience no drought or had only minor increases in the coverage of dryness and drought. Among areas reporting dry weather during the drought-monitoring period, some of the most serious drought stretched across the Plains from western Oklahoma to central Texas. On November 17, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported that topsoil moisture was 47% very short to short in Oklahoma and 42% very short to short in Texas. On the same date, Texas led the nation with 31% of its winter wheat rated in very poor to poor condition, compared to the national value of 14%.

Midwest

The Midwest remained free of drought amid a period of very cold weather with spotty showers. In fact, issues related to wetness and late crop maturation have contributed to the second-slowest corn harvest in the last 25 years; only 2009 was slower at this point in the season. By November 17, only 76% of the U.S. corn crop had been harvested, compared to the 5-year average of 92%. Currently, the only part of the Midwest experiencing lingering dryness (D0) is a small area in eastern Kentucky.

High Plains

Drought in the High Plains region is limited to southern areas – parts of Colorado and Kansas. However, in areas experiencing drought, the situation continued to worsen. A new sliver of extreme drought (D3) was added in southwestern Kansas, where several locations have reported less than one-half inch of precipitation since September 1. Specifically, September 1 – November 19 precipitation in Kansas totaled 0.32 inch near Ulysses (Grant County); 0.40 inch near Lakin (Kearny County); and 0.48 inch at the Garden City Experiment Station (Finney County). Those values are less than 15% of normal. In the driest areas, winter wheat has struggled to emerge and become established, with the recent cold wave being a complicating factor. Overall, Kansas’ winter wheat was rated 18% very poor to poor on November 17, up from 13% at the end of October. On the same date, statewide topsoil moisture was 47% very short to short in Kansas and 44% very short to short in Colorado.

West

The end of this monitoring period (early November 19) came at an interesting time for southern California, the Great Basin, and the Southwest, as significant precipitation arrived the following day. Any impact of the precipitation on Western drought will be reflected next week. On November 19, however, Saint George, Utah, marked its 155th consecutive day without measurable rain – erasing a record originally set with a 121-day dry spell from September 8, 1929 – January 6, 1930. In other Southwestern areas where monsoon rains (largely) failed to materialize, moderate to severe drought (D1 to D2) has developed. A new area of extreme drought (D3) was introduced in a small area centered on southwestern Utah and northwestern Arizona. The drought is also being reflected in soil moisture shortages and poor vegetation health. According to USDA, California’s “foothill rangeland and non-irrigated pasture(s) were reported to be in poor condition.” One November 17, three-quarters of Arizona’s rangeland and pastures were rated in very poor to poor condition. USDA noted that topsoil moisture was rated 80% very short to short in California, along with 60% in New Mexico and 50% in Nevada. Subsoil moisture was similarly very short to short in many of the same states – 80% in California, 66% in New Mexico, and 35% in Nevada. Farther north, there have been periodic autumn storms, although some Northwestern areas are being monitored for the need to introduce abnormally dry conditions. On the 17th, topsoil moisture was rated 45% very short to short in Oregon.

Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico

Significant snow fell across parts of south-central Alaska, including the Anchorage area, on November 16. This snow, combined with earlier precipitation, led to the removal of the remaining area of moderate drought (D1) from that region. Anchorage, which received 8.4 inches of snow on the 16th, reported above-normal precipitation from November 1-19 (1.35 inches, or 182% of normal) and September 1 – November 19 (6.98 inches, or 121%). November has also featured heavy precipitation in southeastern Alaska. Some D1 was also removed in southeastern Alaska, where heavy precipitation has occurred in recent weeks and drought impacts – such as reductions in the capability for hydroelectric power generation due to low lake levels – have diminished. During the first 19 days of November, precipitation totaled 18.49 inches (167% of normal) in Ketchikan; 11.28 inches (123%) in Yakutat; 10.24 inches (162%) in Sitka; and 6.48 inches (171%) in Juneau. Year-to-date precipitation in Ketchikan, 122.68 inches through the 19th, has climbed slightly above the normal value of 121.48 inches. Meanwhile, the first half of November was extremely dry across nearly all of Hawaii. On the Big Island, Hilo received rainfall totaling just 0.04 inch (7.80 inches below normal) from November 1-15. However, toward the end of the drought-monitoring period, a “cut-off” low-pressure system produced locally heavy rain in several areas. Hilo’s November 16-19 rainfall totaled 2.67 inches, but much higher totals were reported in some windward locations. On Kauai, for example, 24-hour totals on November 16-17 reached 4 to 8 inches or more at several reporting sites. Due to Hawaii’s sudden transition to wetter weather, a planned statewide introduction of abnormal dryness (or worse) was tempered to include only those areas that retained short-term dryness. Elsewhere, the depiction of abnormal dryness (D0) remained unchanged in Puerto Rico, although short-term rainfall deficits across the eastern highlands and along portions of the northeastern coast are being monitored. D0 was introduced, however, across neighboring Vieques.

Pacific Islands

The weather pattern over Micronesia during this USDM week (11/13/19-11/19/19) consisted of a monsoon trough which stretched across Micronesia at mid-week and several other surface troughs across western and eastern portions of the USAPI. Tropical Storm Fengshen moved across the northern Marianas at the beginning of the week before intensifying into a typhoon over the Philippine Sea. Several other weak circulations and tropical disturbances moved across Micronesia during the week. Near the end of the week, modest converging trade winds brought rain to some areas while a shear line moved across the northern Marianas. South of the equator, high pressure systems south of the Samoan Islands kept a trough nearly stationary north of the islands.

Satellite-based estimates of 7-day precipitation (QPE) showed a band of 1-2 inches of precipitation, with localized areas of 2 to 4+ inches, across Micronesia from north of Yap southeastward to the southern Marshall Islands. Generally less than an inch was indicated north and south of this band, except 2+ inches were seen over the northern Marianas and near the equator in far southern Pohnpei and Kosrae States. The satellite QPE showed areas of 1+ inches of rain surrounding the main Samoan Islands which had little to no rain indicated.

In the Republic of Palau, the Palau International Airport reported 0.82-inch of rain during the current drought week (November 13-19). Koror received 10.21 inches of rain so far this month, which is 134.9 percent of normal for this period. Year-To-Date (YTD) rainfall is 156.28 inches, which is 119.0 percent of normal for the corresponding period. Despite relatively dry conditions at the Palau International Airport this week (under 2 inches), the Month-To-Date (MTD) and Year-To-Date (YTD) rainfall surpluses at Koror support the continuation of drought-free conditions in Palau.

In the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), Woleai reported 1.84 inches of rain this week, which falls a bit short of the 2-inch weekly minimum necessary to meet most water needs. For the past twelve months (dating back to December 2018), two of those months saw less than 3 inches of rain, three months had in excess of 8 inches of rain, and seven months had 4-8 inches of rain. Woleai’s drought designation remains at D0 with short-term impacts. Yap observed a wet week (4.33 inches, 1 day missing), receiving more than twice the weekly minimum rainfall necessary to address most water needs. In sharp contrast, Chuuk Lagoon received only 0.21-inch of rain this week (1 day missing), falling well short of the 2-inch weekly minimum. However, during 8 of the past 12 months Chuuk Lagoon registered above (and in some cases, well above) the 8-inch minimum monthly rainfall requirement to meet most water needs. For the remaining 4 months, precipitation amounts ranged between 4.73-5.99 inches, so there is no need to change its drought-free status at this time. Weekly rainfall totals for Lukunor, Nukuoro, Kapingamarangi, Pohnpei and Kosrae were 0.29-inch (1-day missing), 3.19 inches, 4.00 inches, 0.67-inch, and 2.81 inches, respectively. The more southern stations (Nukuoro, Kapingamarangi, and Kosrae) fell within the heavy rain band described earlier in the QPE section. With the exception of Lukunor (D0(S)), the other stations noted remain drought-free. The stations of Ulithi, Fananu, and Pingelap did not report this week.

Guam received 1.15 inches of rain, which exceeds the 1-inch weekly minimum required to meet most water demands. Weekly rainfall totals at Guam for the past 12 weeks have all been over an inch, and 8 of the past 12 months have exceeded the monthly minimum criterion of 4 inches. In the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI), Rota observed 1.33 inches of rain this week, and has exceeded the 1-inch weekly requirement during 11 of the past 12 weeks. Rainfall totals for the week in Saipan fell short of the 1-inch cutoff, with a manual gauge reporting 0.88-inch, ASOS reporting 0.81-inch, and the National Park Service registering 0.69-inch of rain. Tinian reported 0.50-inch of rain this week, though there were 3 days of missing data. No changes were made to Guam or the CNMI stations this week regarding their drought-free status.

In the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI), Kwajalein received 1.00-inch of rain during the drought week, which is one-half of the minimum required to satisfy most water needs. Jaluit is being classified as “No Data” until a rain gauge issue can be resolved. Rainfall amounts received at Ailinglapalap, Utirik, Wotje, Majuro, and Mili were 1.93 inches, 3.44 inches (1 day missing), 0.00-inch (2 days missing), 2.67 inches, and 4.96 inches, respectively. In Utirik, 9 of the past 12 weeks have been wet, though only 3 of the past 12 months have been wet (August, September, and November). Clearly, Utirik’s rainfall distribution has been “back-loaded”, where the bulk of the rainfall during the past year is concentrated within the most recent 4 months. The same pattern has also been observed at Wotje, where 3 of the 4 most recent months were wet. In contrast, the rainfall distribution at Mili has been systematically tilted wet throughout most of the past 12 weeks and 12 months.

A relatively dry week prevailed in American Samoa with Pago Pago receiving only 0.33-inch of rain (1 day missing), Siufaga Ridge (a National Park Service site) reporting 0.59-inch, and Toa Ridge (another National Park Service site) registering only 0.02-inch of rain. Tutuila in American Samoa retains its drought-free status for the time being.

Virgin Islands

The Cyril E. King Airport in St. Thomas (USVI) received 0.45-inch of rain this week. Month-To-Date (MTD) rainfall is 2.67 inches, and the normal for this period is 3.68 inches. This equates to 72.6 percent of normal. Since September 1st, King Airport received 8.79 inches of rain, which is 59.9 percent of normal for this period. A YTD rainfall total of 31.72 inches registers at 91.1 percent of normal. According to CoCoRaHS data, Anna’s Retreat (VI-ST-1) received 0.13-inch of rain this drought week, and 1.60 inches for the month so far. At the beginning of the drought week, November 13th, the Grade School 3 Well in Charlotte Amalie indicated a water depth (below the land surface) of about 9.25 feet. By week’s end, November 19th, the water depth had dropped to nearly 10 feet. Since the beneficial tropical rains in late August, this represents a drop of about 6 feet in well water depth. For Charlotte Amalie, the SPI values at 1,3,6,9, and 12 months are -0.74, -0.48, +0.17, -0.32, and -0.67, respectively. From these SPI values, it seems that St. Thomas’s drought-free designation is still valid.

The Henry E. Rohlsen Airport in St. Croix (USVI) received 0.20-inch of rain this week. The MTD rainfall total of 2.04 inches translates to 53.5 percent of normal for the period. Since the first of September, Rohlsen Airport received 5.04 inches of rain, which is 36.2 percent of normal. The YTD rainfall total of 21.52 inches translates to 63.2 percent of normal for the period. CoCoRaHS data for Christiansted (VI-SC-8) indicates 0.32-inch of rain fell during the week, and 1.40 inches of rain fell during the month so far. The water depth in the Adventure 28 Well in St. Croix remained relatively stable this week, fluctuating slightly about the 20.08 foot level. For Christiansted, the SPI values at 1,3,6,9, and 12 months are -0.95, -1.45, -0.79, -0.86, and -1.53, respectively. Moderate drought with short-term and long-term impacts (D1(SL)) continues this week in St. Croix.

An observer at Windswept Beach, St. John (USVI), reported 0.09-inch of rain this week. The YTD accumulation is 33.28 inches. The Sep-Oct-Nov (SON) season is climatologically a wet time of year, though this year the month of November (so far) has experienced a dry spell. This does not bode well for soon going into the dry season. The USGS Susannaberg Well on St. John is currently reporting a water depth of about 12.5 feet below the land surface, and has dropped about one foot in the past month. Considering these factors, it was decided to revise St. John’s drought designation to D0(S) this week.

Looking Ahead

A complex, two-part storm system will emerge from the Southwest during the next several days. Storm-total precipitation through Friday could reach 1 to 3 inches in portions of southern California, the Great Basin, and the Southwest, providing drought relief but possibly resulting in flash flooding and debris flows – especially in areas that have experienced wildfires in recent weeks. Meanwhile, a low-pressure system will cross the Midwest on Thursday and early Friday, delivering rain and wet snow and bringing renewed fieldwork delays. Farther south, another piece of the storm system should result in showers and thunderstorms, starting on Thursday across the southern Plains and shifting into the East during the weekend. Five-day rainfall amounts could total 1 to 2 inches or more in parts of the South. In contrast, mostly dry weather will prevail during the next 5 days in the lower Rio Grande Valley, southern Florida, and from northern California to the northern High Plains.

The NWS 6- to 10-day outlook for November 26 – 30 calls for the likelihood of colder-than-normal conditions across the western half of the country, while above-normal temperatures will cover the East and areas along the Gulf Coast. Meanwhile, wetter-than-normal weather across most of the nation should contrast with below-normal rainfall in central and southern Texas.

Some may find the below way of looking at things useful and I hope these graphics are not too small to read. I did not make them so you could click on them individually but you can click on the whole graphic and it may enlarge. But I think you get the picture. It has been a rapid onset and demise. When you read these graphics, remember that the older graphics are not the drought conditions that existed then but the change from then until now.

Let’s focus on the change between October 22, 2019 and November 19, 2019 i.e. one month.

Drought Forecasts

These two forecasts (Monthly and Season) are issued by the same agency but to obtain them you need to access two different links here and here.

Here is the Monthly Drought Outlook which was updated on October 31, 2019. Thus it is pretty useless at this point as it is now November 22. I have left it in the Report because it will update at the end of the month but right now it makes sense to focus on the seasonal forecast which follows this one month forecast.

Here is the Three-Month Forecast which was issued on November 21, 2019

Here is the discussion released with this update.

Latest Seasonal Assessment –

A favorable time of year for soil moisture recharge throughout the outlook period support drought improvement and removal along and east of the Mississippi River. Improvement and removal are also expected across much of the Four Corners region by the end of February 2020, based largely on above normal precipitation likely during the remainder of November, climatology, and a favorable time of year for soil moisture recharge. Drought persistence is more likely across the central and southern Great Plains due to a drier climatology, while the seasonal precipitaiton outlook supports development in parts of Texas. Another area for drought development exists across central California based on below normal precipitation since the beginning of October and enhanced odds that below normal precipitation persists from December 2019 through February 2020. A wet climatology favors drought improvement or removal across Alaska and Hawaii.

Here is the most recent precipitation forecast.

Floods

Floods remain a concern but only in a limited area.

Let’s see if this animation works. It shows the pattern for August and September.

How has the reduction in flooding impacted Fieldwork Days?

Wildfires

Current Wildfire Risk. This is a new model that updates daily to show the short-term risk.

Click here to update. Red is high risk, blue is low risk. This graphic updates daily but you have to click on the link provided to get the updates More information can be found here.

This explains the model a bit.

Looking out another month.

Crop Progress

Recently, we looked at the individual crop progress reports graphically from this source and we have reviewed this Executive Summary Report which provides projections of the ultimate harvest. It is important to make the distinction between crop progress which we report in this section of our article weekly and forecasts of what the result for the crop will ultimately be and we review that information as the NASS forecasts are released. Once a month they issue a briefing document on the overall situation (that was this week and we have started to report on that) and they also release more targeted information from time to time.

Now, we will look at the season to date information summary. This is a crop progress report, not a forecast.

We no longer have enough information on crop conditions to take the above table and show it the way we have been doing as a matrix.

The degree-day deficit graphic is also not available as the growing season winds down. The data is available but the nice graph was not in any of the usual sources that I use to prepare this article.

International

A map helps and is not always available and fortunately, it was available this week.

Major Sources of Information

In the box are shown the major resources we use. We will not be using them all each week but the reader is welcome to refer to these resources.

Background Information

The sequence of drought occurrence and impacts for commonly accepted drought types. All droughts originate from a deficiency of precipitation or meteorological drought but other types of drought and impacts cascade from this deficiency. (Source: NDMC)

Source: National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska-Lincoln