Written by Sig Silber
Updated at 1 a.m. EDT October 4, 2019
The growing season seems to be extended but there has not been a lot of recovery for corn and soybeans. So far, the Flash Drought has only impacted agriculture. But the forecast for October is for the drought to become somewhat more serious along the Southern Tier.
Each week we report on the current status of the crop and once a month, or as the data comes in, we report on the forecast of the final seasonal results. And we have many other regular drought-related indices we report on including wildfires and floods and soil conditions. We also provide a shortened version of the Intermediate-term weather forecast.
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New Format: Each week our Thursday night article will cover the Drought Monitor Report issued by NOAA in conjunction with the University of Nebraska – Lincoln and a summary of U.S. crop conditions. It provides a link to the Severe Weather Report (this will take two clicks since that report gets republished each week and so you click here to get to the Directory and then click again on the version of the Severe Weather Report closest to the top of the list. Soon, we may have a link to a full weather report, not just severe weather. Each week, this article will have a different special feature. Examples of special features might be: A. a more detailed look at crop progress B. a review of the prior month’s weather. C. a review of the prior month’s International Weather. D. Current conditions of rivers and reservoirs. E. Economic Impacts other than crop-related (storm impacts including flooding and drought impacts including wildfires) F. Other. |
Looking at soil moisture (the graphic quality does not seem to be that great this week).
And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Weather Forecast
First Temperature
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And then Precipitation
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Here is the discussion that was released with the new Week 3 – 4 forecast.
Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Oct 19 2019-Fri Nov 01 2019
Uncertainty abounds in the present Weeks 3 and 4 outlook, with a general absence of tropical teleconnections to influence North America coupled with what appears to be a transitional pattern at the higher latitudes. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation remains neutral, while the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) also does not appear to be a player at present. The RMM index supports the prolonged presence of an active MJO over the Western Hemisphere, although this signal appears driven instead by the robust easerlies across much of the Eastern Hemisphere tied to the strongest observed positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole since at least 2001. In the higher latitudes, the Arctic Oscillation is forecast to become sharply negative by Week-2 as ridging is forecast to become anchored near the Davis Strait. As a result, dynamical model guidance and long-term trends are the primary basis of the present outlook with some consideration of evolution from the Week-2 pattern and the possibility of a block setting up in the North Atlantic.
Model guidance is most consistent in forecasting anomalous ridging over Eastern Canada and the Davis Strait in Week-3, while things diverge substantially by Week-4. Anomalous ridging is also forecast somewhere over the Northeast Pacific or Western North America during Weeks 3 and 4. The CFS and JMA models feature the most substantial ridging across the Great Lakes, consistent with the anticipated MJO response, although likely misguided given the expected absence of MJO activity. Instead the ECMWF model is favored, which features a weakness in the height field across the Central CONUS during Week-3 and building in some troughing over the Great Lakes by Week-4. This evolution appears to be in the best agreement with the Week-2 forecast, while downplaying possible MJO influences. From the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) model suite, the FIM and GEOS-5 models somewhat follow the forecast circulation of the ECMWF.
The resulting temperature outlook features above-normal temperatures being favored nationwide, with the exception of parts of the Central CONUS where equal chances exist. Confidence in above-normal temperatures is the greatest across Alaska given strong decadal trends and forecast ridging in its vicinity, with the highest confidence across the North Slope and areas adjacent to the Bering Sea due to observed anomalously warm sea surface temperatures. With some variation on ridging near the Pacific coastline among guidance, above-normal temperatures are also favored across the West with higher values closer to the coast. Above-normal temperatures are also favored across the South and up the East Coast with some westward extension into the Great Lakes. Mixed signals lead to equal chances across the Central CONUS, although there was some temptation to introduce elevated below-normal temperatures odds given the possibility of troughing upstream of the anticipated ridge.
Equal chances dominate much of the precipitation forecast, given inconsistencies in the placement of major forecast circulation features. The best signals are likely for below-normal (above-normal) precipitation favored across the Pacific Northwest (Southern Alaska), with ridging located near the area (troughing upstream). Elsewhere, model guidance favors an extension of moisture from the Southern Rockies through the Southern Plains, in line with recent precipitation observations. Despite the possibility of a mean baroclinic zone in the vicinity, below-normal precipitation is favored across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, with anomalous moisture streaming northward further to the east where above-normal precipitation chances are elevated across parts of Florida and the Atlantic Coastal Plain.
Observed sea surface temperatures remain 2 to 3 degrees C above-normal surrounding Hawaii, thus supporting a continuation of above normal temperatures during the Weeks 3-4 period. Guidance from the Subseasonal Experiment model suite tilts toward above-normal precipitation favored across the islands.
Concluding remarks
Current Drought Conditions
Now we take a look at Thursday’s U.S. Drought Monitor Report.
The U.S. Drought Monitor is a comprehensive way of understanding the drought situation for the U.S. It is issued every Thursday and reflects the conditions as of the prior Tuesday. Drought is defined as a moisture deficit bad enough to have social, environmental or economic effects. Thus, more factors than recent precipitation are considered and more information on how it is done is found at the end of this report.
U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
Below is the map for just CONUS.
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| Last Week | This Week |
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Some might find this animation of twelve weeks of change useful;
The graphic below shows the one-week change in drought intensity. Yellow is bad. Green is good.
https://docs.google.com/vi |
Now we show the week to week change information by region. The yellow is where the level of drought has been raised. The green is where the level of drought has been lowered.
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| Degradation in Colorado. |
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| Improvement to the north and degradation to the southeast. The states with the worst degradation are Kentucky, Missouri, and Ohio with Indiana mixed and Illinois and Michigan improved. |
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| General degradation but not a lot except in West Virginia. |
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| Mixed in Texas but mostly degradation. Degradation to the east especially Tennessee, Mississippi and Arkansas. |
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| General degradation but with respect to Florida it was only northern Florida and for North Carolina, it was the western part of the state. The pattern is similar to last week. |
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| Colorado and Utah are the focus of the degradation with areas further south improving. The major improvement was in Washington State. |
Here is the Discussion that was issued with the Drought Report.
This Week’s Drought Summary
Warmer than normal temperatures dominated the eastern two-thirds of the country, with many areas having temperatures that were 9 to 15 degrees above normal. Cooler than normal temperatures dominated the western portions of the country into the northern Rocky Mountains. Very dry conditions also dominated regions in the southern Plains, southern Midwest and along most of the east coast. The heat and dryness have continued setting the stage for rapidly developing drought, impacting mainly agricultural sectors right now.
Northeast
Temperatures were near normal in the northern portions of the region, 3 to 6 degrees above normal through the central, and 6-9 degrees above normal in the south, which has been consistent with the last 30 days. Most of the region was dry this last week with just areas of western Pennsylvania and along the border with Canada recording above-normal precipitation. The warm and dry pattern has expanded over much of the region and even down to the Mid-Atlantic. The only change made this week was to expand the abnormally dry conditions in eastern Massachusetts slightly to the north, capturing one of the drier areas and where streamflow levels are dropping. Degradation was also noted in West Virginia with an expansion of moderate and severe drought in the southern portions of the state while moderate drought was expanded in eastern Maryland.
Southeast
The warm and dry pattern continued over the region, with temperatures for the week generally 9 to 12 degrees above normal. Most of the region was dry with only small, isolated pockets of observed precipitation. Many areas had their warmest and driest September on record, accelerating the drought conditions in the region with dryness going back 8 to 10 weeks now with associated high temperatures. In areas from Virginia south into northern Florida, degradation was widespread, with many new areas of severe and extreme drought added. Outside of coastal areas impacted by recent tropical weather, almost the entire region is abnormally dry or worse, with many areas seeing multiple class degradation over the last several weeks. New areas of extreme drought were added to Kentucky, Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina.
Midwest
Warmer than normal conditions dominated the region, helping to add some late growing degree days to the late planted crops. Temperatures were 9 to 12 degrees above normal in the southern portions while they were 6 to 9 degrees above normal farther to the north. A strong line of thunderstorms came across the region during the period, bringing with them significant rain over areas of Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan. The southern portions of the region remained dry, especially over Kentucky, southern Indiana, Ohio, and Illinois. A mix of changes were made this week with a full category improvement over central Illinois and northern Indiana and into southern Michigan. Abnormally dry conditions were removed from eastern Iowa as well. Conditions rapidly continued to deteriorate over Kentucky and areas just north of Kentucky. Severe drought was expanded widely over Kentucky this week with a new area of extreme drought over eastern Kentucky. Most all the rest of Kentucky was downgraded to moderate drought while areas of southern Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio had moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions expand. Abnormally dry conditions were also expanded to cover much of southeast Missouri.
High Plains
Temperatures were warmest over the southern portion of the area and were actually below normal over the northern. Much of Kansas and Nebraska were 6-12 degrees above normal while North Dakota and portions of northern South Dakota were 3-6 degrees below normal. Precipitation was just as varied over the region with much of North Dakota, eastern Nebraska, and eastern Kansas recording over 200 percent of normal precipitation. Conditions were dry in western Kansas, Colorado, western Nebraska and southeast South Dakota. Some of these areas welcomed the drier weather while dryness and drought are becoming a concern in southwest Kansas and into Colorado. Abnormally dry conditions were expanded over southeast Colorado in response to the recent dryness.
South
Warmer than normal temperatures dominated the region, with most areas 6 to 12 degrees warmer than normal for the week. The warmest temperatures were in central Oklahoma to central Texas. Most areas were precipitation free this week with only portions of the Texas panhandle, northern Arkansas, and eastern Oklahoma having recorded significant precipitation. Most of the rain in the Texas panhandle was observed right at the data cutoff for this week with some improvements being made to moderate drought, but the area will be looked at again and drought will be assessed next week. Improvements were made in far northeast Texas in response to recent rains. Degradations were widespread in Texas with several new areas of extreme drought in central to eastern portions of the state and more severe drought being represented in the state. Drought was also expanded in portions of southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana and all of Mississippi.
West
An active weather pattern was evident over the West this week with 4 to 5 feet of snow over portions of Montana, rain and snow in the Pacific Northwest, and rains over portions of the southwest. Areas from the Great Basin to the northern Rocky Mountains recorded over 400 percent of normal precipitation, with several feet of snow in portions of Montana. Rain was also observed in areas of southern California, southern Arizona and New Mexico. Improvements were made to the moderate drought in the Pacific Northwest, eliminating it from the region. The long-term dryness is still evident, but the short-term precipitation has allowed for the improvements. Abnormally dry conditions were also improved in western Washington and into western Oregon. In Arizona, the rains allowed for moderate drought to be improved in the central portion of the state and for the removal of abnormally dry conditions in the southeast portion of the state. Abnormally dry conditions were also removed from most of southern California.
Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico
In Hawaii, a small area of extreme drought was added on the southern tip of the Big Island in response to deteriorating conditions in that part of the state. In Puerto Rico, a full category improvement was made in response to tropical rains that came to the island. In Alaska, the short-term dryness that predicated much of the drought was improved upon. On the mainland of Alaska, a full category improvement was made except for Kodiak Island and in the panhandle of southeast Alaska, moderate drought was improved upon.
Pacific Islands
The weather pattern during this USDM week (9/25/19-10/01/19) was a continuation of the general pattern which has persisted for the last couple weeks: a surface trough stretched from the Marianas eastward just north of the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) to portions of the northern Marshall Islands (RMI), while a surface ridge dominated southern portions of Micronesia for most of the week. Tropical disturbances or circulations moved through the trough, but they generally remained weak as they traversed USAPI waters. Upper-level troughs occasionally enhanced rainfall over the Marianas, Koror, and Yap, as well as parts of the RMI. The high pressure ridge kept much of the FSM dry for the week. South of the equator, a surface trough passed across American Samoa early in the week, but otherwise the weather was dominated by a strong high pressure ridge.
Satellite-based estimates of 7-day precipitation (QPE) showed two east-west bands of rainfall, one stretching from the East China Sea eastward across the northern portions of the Micronesia region, and the other stretching from New Guinea eastward to just north of the Samoan Island region. A band of 1 to 2 inches was indicated by the QPE across the southern Marianas to just north of Chuuk, another area of 1 to 2 inches was over parts of the RMI, and 0.5 to 1.0 inches was over parts of Palau and western Yap State. Otherwise less than half an inch was estimated by the QPE across the rest of Micronesia. In the Samoan region, an area of 1 to 2 inches touched American Samoa, and other areas were in the vicinity (mostly to the north and west), but less than half an inch was indicated for much of the immediate region.
The Republic of Palau had a dry week, with 1.18 inches of rain. This marks the third consecutive week Palau had less than its weekly minimum of 2 inches to meet most water needs. However, the monthly total for September was 8.74 inches, which is slightly over the 8-inches monthly minimum and the previous months were extremely wet, receiving about double their monthly minimum. For this reason, drought free (D-Nothing) conditions continued in Palau.
Drought free conditions persisted across the Mariana Islands this week since all three stations had more than the 1-inch of precipitation threshold to meet most water needs. Saipan had the least precipitation at 1.44 inches, while Guam had the most at 5.35 inches. Rota had 2.23 inches for the week. All three stations had 5 times their monthly minimum of 4-inches for the month of September.
Most of FSM had a dry week, with several locations receiving less than half an inch of rain. The station with the least precipitation was Kosrae with only 0.04 inch of rain. This week marked Kosrae and Pingelap’s (0.30 inch) second consecutive week with little to no rain. However, since the monthly precipitation total for September for both locations were more than the 8-inches threshold to meet most water needs at 9.77 inches and 8.10 inches, respectively, drought free (D-Nothing) conditions persisted this week.
This week marked the third consecutive week that Lukunoch had less than half of an inch of rain at 0.16 inch. The month of September had 6.43 inches of rain, which is less than the 8 inches monthly minimum. As a result, Lukunoch’s drought classification was changed from drought free status (D-Nothing) to abnormally dry (D0-S). Similarly, Nukuoro, Woleai, and Kapingamarangi’s drought status were also changed from drought free (D-Nothing) to abnormally dry (D0-S) since this also marked their third consecutive week with little rain ( 0.18 inch, 0.86 inch, and 1.01 inches, respectively).
Yap and Chuuk also had a dry week, with 1.42 inches (2 days of missing data) and 1.09 inches, respectively. Yap had close to 8 inches of rain for the month, while Chuuk’s precipitation total was nearly double the monthly threshold of 8 inches. Drought free (D-Nothing) conditions were unchanged for Yap and Chuuk.
Pohnpei was the only FSM region that had a wet week, receiving 2.21 inches of rain, retaining drought free (D-Nothing) status. The stations of Fananu and Ulithi had no data at the time of analysis and were set to missing.
Much of the Marshall islands had a wet week. Ailinglapalap, Kwajalein, Majuro, Jaluit, and Mili had over 2-inches of rain during the week, surpassing the weekly threshold of 2 inches to meet most water needs. The station with the most precipitation was Ailinglapalap with a total of 4.06 inches of rain. Majuro followed as one of the locations with the most precipitation at 3.35 inches of rain. Most of Majuro’s weekly rain fell on September 26 (1.65 inches), prompting floods in the main roads. Overall, Majuro’s September precipitation total was 11.73 inches, more than the 8 inches threshold. Ailinglapalap, Kwajalein, Majuro, and Mili’s drought status remained as D-Nothing.
Jaluit had a wet week (2.95 inches), which helped fill water catchments. However, dry conditions have persisted since April 2019 in Jaluit, where precipitation totals for the months were less than the threshold of 8 inches to meet most water needs. The months of July 2019 and August 2019 had the least monthly precipitation totals at 2.60 inches and 3.53 inches. For this reason, Jaluits drought status remained as severe drought (D2-SL).
The stations of Utirik and Wotje had the least precipitation across the Marshall Islands at 1.10 inches and 0.78 inch, respectively. Utirik’s September 2019 precipitation total was 12.22 inches, surpassing the threshold of 8 inches. For this reason, Utirik remained in drought free (D-Nothing) status this week.
Although Wotje had less than 1 inch of precipitation for this drought week, the September 2019 precipitation total was 8.50 inches and the month of August 2019 was also wet at 10.72 inches. For this reason Wotje’s drought classification was improved from moderate (D1-S) to abnormally dry (D0-S) conditions.
Pago Pago had 1.42 inches of rain this week, marking six consecutive weeks with precipitation totals below the 2-inches weekly threshold. The month of September had a total of 5.24 inches and it is 2.76 inches less than its monthly threshold of 8 inches. The stations located in Siufaga Ridge and Toa Ridge were also dry, reporting 0.76 inch and 0.94 inch, respectively. As a result, abnormally dry (D0-S) conditions persist in Tutuila.
Virgin Islands
St. Thomas had 1.18 inches of rain for the week at the Cyril E. King Airport. For the month of September, the total rainfall for this location was 3.51 inches or 63.0% of normal precipitation. Meanwhile, data for the CoCoRaHS station at Anna’s Retreat had a total of 2.42 inches for the month. The year-to-date rainfall total of 26.44 inches at the airport was 102.1% of normal precipitation as of October 1. The Grade School-3 Well level continued to be at high levels this week and SPI values at 1 (-0.38), 3 (1.19), 6 (0.23), 9 (0.2), and 12 (-0.03) months indicate drought free conditions. For this reason D-Nothing drought status was unchanged.
According to the NWS Climatology Report, St. Croix only had 0.54 inch of rain during this OCONUS drought week at the Henry E. Rohlsen Airport. Total rainfall for September 2019 was 1.88 or 38.7% of normal precipitation for this location. Meanwhile the CoCoRaHS station at Christiansted had a total of 0.86 inch of rain for the week and 6.28 inches for the month. The year-to-date value of 18.36 inches was 73.5% of normal at the airport. Groundwater levels at the Adventure 28 well continued to be low as of October 1. SPI values at the Henry E. Rohlsen Airport were mixed, suggesting neutral conditions at 3 (-0.04) and 6 (-0.05) months, while suggesting abnormally dry to moderate drought in the 1 (-1.15), 9 (-0.71), and 12 (-1.02) months. Drought free conditions remained this week, however, if conditions persist, a change to abnormally dry might be considered next week.
According to data provided by a volunteer observer, St. John’s weekly precipitation total was 1.53 inches. The September 2019 rain total of 3.99 inches was 65.6% of normal. The year-to-date precipitation was 28.02 inches, which is 89.9% of normal. SPI values at all levels were wet or neutral, indicating drought free (D-Nothing) conditions.
Looking Ahead
Over the next 5-7 days, precipitation is anticipated to continue over the Midwest, Plains and areas of the Southwest, with the greatest amounts anticipated over Kansas and Missouri. Precipitation tries to work farther south, with areas of Kentucky and Tennessee and West Virginia being at the center of the greatest precipitation totals of 1 to 2 inches. Dry conditions are expected over much of the West as well as from the Mid-Atlantic to Florida. Temperatures during this time are forecast to be above normal over the Southeast and Southwest, with departures of 3 to 6 degrees above normal. Cooler than normal conditions are expected over the Plains and Pacific Northwest with temperatures 3 to 6 degrees below normal.
The 6-10 day outlooks show that the Plains, upper Midwest, and Southwest, including western Alaska, has above-normal chances of observing above-normal temperatures, with the greatest chances over the Southwest and Southeast. The Pacific Northwest and southeast Alaska have above-normal chances of below-normal temperatures. The areas that have the greatest chances of above-normal precipitation during this time are along the east coast, Alaska, and the Pacific Northwest. Much of the Plains, Midwest, South, and Rocky Mountains have the greatest chances of below-normal precipitation.
Some may find this way of looking at things useful and I hope these graphics are not too small to read. I did not make them so you could click on them individually but you can click on the whole graphic and it may enlarge. But I think you get the picture. It has been a rapid onset and demise. When you read these graphics, remember that the older graphics are not the drought conditions that existed then but the change from then until now.
Let’s focus on the change between September 3, 2019 and October 1, 2019 i.e. a month. .
Drought Forecasts
First, we show the new October forecast issues on September 30, 2019 and then the forecast through December which was issued on September 19, 2019 (to be updated on October 18, 2019). These two forecasts are issued by the same agency but to obtain them you need to access two different links here and here.
Here is the Monthly Drought Outlook which was updated on September 30, 2019
Here is the Three-Month Forecast which was issued on September 19, 2019
Floods remain a concern but only in a limited area.
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Let’s see if this animation works. It shows the pattern for August and September.
How has the reduction in flooding impacted Fieldwork Days?
Active Major Fires
Current Wildfire Risk
Click here to update. Red is high risk, blue is low risk. This graphic updates daily but you have to click on the link provided to get the updates More information can be found here.
This explains the model a bit.
Looking out another month.
Crop Progress
Recently, we looked at the individual crop progress reports graphically from this source. Also recently we reviewed this Executive Summary Report which provides projections of the ultimate harvest. It is important to make the distinction between crop progress which we report in this section of our article weekly and forecasts of what the result for the crop will ultimately be and we review that information as the NASS forecasts are released. One a month they issue a briefing document on the situation.
Now, we will look at the season to date information summary. So that is a crop progress report, not a forecast.
| Crop | Crop Progress | Crop Condition |
| Corn | Very Slow(Denting ) Very Very slow (Mature) Very Slow Harvested | Very Bad |
| Soybeans | Very VerySlow (Dropping Leaves) Very Slow (Harvested) | Very Bad |
| Spring Wheat | Very Slow (Harvested) | Bad |
| Winter Wheat | OK(planted)OK(emerged) | |
| Cotton | Very Good (Bolls Opening) OK (Harvested) | Ok |
| Sorghum | OK (Coloring) Slow (Mature) Slow (Harvested) | Very Good |
| Rice | OK (Harvested) | Bad |
| Barley | Slow (Harvested) | NA |
| Peanuts | Good(Harvested) | Very Bad |
| Sugarbeets | Slow (Harvested) | NA |
The following table summarizes the situation. It has changed just a bit since last week for cotton.
| Crop development Early | OK | Crop Development Late | |
| Crop Condition Good | Sorghum | ||
| Crop Condition OK | Cotton | Barley | |
| Crop Condition Bad | Peanuts | Rice | Corn Soybeans Spring Wheat Oats |
This provides some additional information: There are many factors that have led to the current situation but one is the amount of sunshine other causes of temperature and it has been inadequate.
Side by Side
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International
A map helps and is not always available and fortunately, it was available this week.
International Reports
No special reports this week but Southeast Asia, Argentina, The Canadian Prairies, and Australia have had less than ideal conditions.
Major Sources of Information
In the box are shown the major resources we use. We will not be using them all each week but the reader is welcome to refer to these resources.
Major Sources of Information Used in this Weekly Report
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Background Information
The sequence of drought occurrence and impacts for commonly accepted drought types. All droughts originate from a deficiency of precipitation or meteorological drought but other types of drought and impacts cascade from this deficiency. (Source: NDMC)
Source: National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska-Lincoln
