Live: Severe Weather Events May 27 Through June 2, 2019 - Be Careful!

Written by Sig Silber

Updated at 4:30 PM EDT May 27, 2019 to reflect both the updated short-term and Day 3 – 7 Forecasts which suggest that the second half of the week will be more benign than the first half. But flooding will remain a concern.

This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats. Pay attention to how severe weather may impact where you live or travel. For a location of interest on any of these maps, click the map to see details – may be a very detailed map and appropriate text information. These are “Live” maps and continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps as Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.

Focus Points This Week: Central Plains, Ohio River Valley, and Northeast Thunderstorms and Southeast Heat.

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Click here for KSN.com Kansas radar imagery

First the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast

These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

Here is the full Monday WPC Short Range Forecast

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 323 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019 Valid 00Z Tue May 28 2019 – 00Z Thu May 30 2019
…Additional heavy rain and severe thunderstorms expected across the central United States through Wednesday…
…Severe thunderstorms possible across the Ohio Valley and Northeast Tuesday…
…Early-season heat continues across the Southeast…
Weather conditions will continue to remain quite unsettled across large portions of the nation and especially the central U.S. going into the middle of the week, with additional heavy rain and severe thunderstorms expected. This is in response to a strong and rather anomalous upper level trough situated over the Intermountain West, while a strong deep layer ridge of high pressure remains anchored over the southeastern U.S.
An organized surface low is tracking across the Midwest Monday afternoon and will cross into the Lower Great Lakes on Tuesday. This will result in an area of heavy rain and thunderstorms across the Midwest tonight. A few storms will have the chance to turn severe. By Tuesday, the severe threat associated with the aforementioned low-pressure will shift into the Ohio Valley and Northeast.
A second area of low-pressure is forecast to develop across southeast Colorado this evening and produce another round of heavy rain and thunderstorms. Portions of the northern Rockies are under Winter Storm Warnings and Flash Flood Watches, as heavy precipitation overspreads the area. The low-pressure system will enter the Central Plains on Tuesday and be slow to move. Additional heavy rain and severe thunderstorms will be possible through Wednesday across the Central and Southern Plains as a result, extending into the Mississippi Valley as well.
There will be a dichotomy of temperature anomalies across the U.S. through the middle of the week. Expect readings to be below normal across the central Plains, Rockies, Intermountain West and Desert Southwest. With the anomalous upper level low tracking across the Four Corners region by Monday night, temperatures will be rather pleasant across the normally hot lower elevations of the Desert Southwest, and quite cool across the higher elevations. Temperatures will also be on the chilly side across northern New England, where Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories have been issued for Monday night/Tuesday morning. Across the Southeast, record high temperatures will continue to be possible through Wednesday, with highs soaring well into the 90s and lower 100s for some areas.

Click here for updates to this WPC Discussion

The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.

Two different part of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.

This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.

For the Day 2 Outlook click here. For Day 3, click here. For Days 4 – 8 click here. An explanation of the risk codes used can be found here.

There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into late Spring and Early Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Or for the Day 2 Fire Outlook click here. For the Day 3 – 8 Fire Outlook click here.

The orange and red outlined areas are what is of most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend so sometimes we do an update on Monday to reflect major changes in the Day 3 – 7 Forecast.

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

Now to our More Detailed Report

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

In and of itself Atmospheric Rivers are not a definitive predictor of extreme weather but it shows where concentrated “rivers” of moist air are forecast to be impacting North America and that is part of the equation for severe weather.

Here we see an AR headed towards the West Coast.

This view shows the AR impacting the Western Gulf Coast and then heading to the Great Lakes and East Coast.

We thought we would show Europe also. This view also provides a better view of the East Coast.

The Gulf Coast activity now seems to be directed over the entire Northeast. Northern Europe is also impacted.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3–Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

The current Pacific Trough is forecast to have moved inland by Day 3 (just like last week). Further north it moves east faster than further south. The High over the Southeast will result in near record or record temperatures for this time of the year. The Hudson Bay Low will impact the Great Lakes Area.

As of this evening, we see for Day 7 pretty much what we see for Day 3 but moderating.

The below shows the progression of the pattern from Day 3 to Day 7. This provides an advanced forecast of where major features will be for Day 3 to Day 7

It seems like a pretty stagnant pattern which can be problematic re flooding.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

The above is an advanced look. Our most recent 25 Day Intermediate-Term Forecast might provide additional information. The URL for that report changes each Monday so you can find it on the Econintersect.com website or consult the Directory which can be accessed here.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Oklahoma and Kansas are wet but it is even wetter further north.

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5

The pattern is similar but this represents five days of precipitation rather than three days as shown in the earlier graphic. It looks like the first three days are the wettest.

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

Pretty much the same areas and the QPF does not increase much suggesting that the second half of the week will be fairly dry.

Remember the commentary is as of Sunday Night unless updated which is indicated in the lede paragraph. The graphics auto-update so the commentary may not be up-to-date beyond the initial publication on Sunday Night.

We have to start worrying about heat being a hazard.

There is concern relative to the Southeast where even when the relative humidity is relatively low for that part of CONUS, the humidity is higher than the levels usually experienced in the Desert Southwest. Thus the combination of heat and humidity factors in. The forecast calls for near record or record heat in the Southeast so this is of concern. It really is the Mid-Atlantic.

Snow is becoming less of an issue but not this week. We show one forecast map for snow. It auto-updates. To get a variety of additional updated maps, click here. We will stop showing this graphic soon.

Looking ahead to next week.

Usually, nothing shows in this graphic for the following week as it is usually too far out to be forecasting severe weather. But this graphic auto-updates. The Southeast Heat may continue to be forecast as a problem.

Current watches, warnings, and advisories issued by the agencies of the National Weather Service. Hazards should show up in the various maps but the below links will take you to all outstanding watches and warnings in each category which may include some categories not covered in the various maps or difficult to find. So if there is a category of interest, click on the appropriate link below.

Below you will see a number of different maps which are updated in real time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.

Our focus here are events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Convective Outlooks
Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook

This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook

This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook

This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook

The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorm across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook

Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook

This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook

This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook