Live: Severe Weather Events 21April Through 28April 2019

Written by Sig Silber

Updated at 5 pm EDT April 22, 2019 to reflect the post weekend update of the WPC Hazards Forecast

This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather Related Threats. Please pay attention to all of the smaller maps – these are “Live” and NOAA “Headline” areas are shown when posted. Pay attention to where you live or travel. Click maps for details.

Focus Points This Week: One last Pacific Storm will move across CONUS and has the potential for severe weather in advance of the trough and afterward with respect to potential flooding.

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First the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

Of some concern:

Here are the highlights from Monday’s WPC Short Range Forecast

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 345 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2019 Valid 00Z Tue Apr 23 2019 – 00Z Thu Apr 25 2019

…Severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall possible across parts of the Southern Plains…

…Snowmelt combined with rainfall could lead to flooding across parts of the Upper Midwest and northern Maine…

…The Western U.S. should stay mostly dry and very warm through the short range…

Click here for updates to this WPC Discussion

This map shows the the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into late Spring and Early Winter. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get as set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8 etc.

This map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.

Below is a larger version that does not always update but most importantly is not able to be clicked on but is easier to read. You can tell from the time stamp in the lede paragraph if this map is up to date and if not, just click on the above map and you will get an up-to-date version of the larger map and much more. The larger map is here just for convenience but I cannot update it every six hours as the above map updates. Right now it seems to be updating automatically but that may just be good luck. The small map reliably updates.

There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below small map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update and you can click here.

Below is a larger version that does not always update but most importantly is not able to be clicked on but is easier to read. You can tell from the time stamp in the lede paragraph if this map is up to date and if not, just click on the above map and you will get an up-to-date version of the larger map and much more. The larger map is here just for convenience but I cannot update it every six hours as the above map updates. Right now it seems to be updating automatically some of the time. The small map reliably updates.

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

Now to our Regular Report

You will see a number of different maps which are updated in real time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.

Our focus here are events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Overview: The next two maps provide Information but are not set up to provide more detail (since it is a forecast). It generally updates daily but not on the weekend. So I may update the focus points on Monday and again later in the week as appropriate. Many of the maps later in this report can be clicked on to get detail on specific events that are happening RIGHT NOW! The links at the end of the article will take you to all outstanding watches and warnings.

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

We thought we would show Europe also.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

We have to start worrying about heat being a hazard.

Snow is becoming less of an issue. We show one forecast map for snow. It auto-updates. To get a variety of additional updated maps click here.

Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
Convective Outlooks (We have plans to add larger maps but you should be able to see the area to click on with the current small maps)
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook
The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorm across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are: 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook
Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook